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[ we've explored in the past how tesla may fare in a recession and run through various scenarios now it looks very likely a recession may be just around the corner or are we in it already i can't tell perhaps to turn on some mainstream media to find out sometime we also have a better idea now of the courses of the recession so we can perhaps try and identify what tesla will be like during this market downturn some people like to tell me how much consumers will struggle to spend in excess of sixty thousand dollars on a vehicle in a market crash i thought we could explore some of the scenarios that we may expect and see what difference it may make to tesla how tesla might handle it and how it may also affect the competition i think rather than just analyze a cliche recession if there is such a thing we'll just try and explore it best as possible in how inflation debt and interest are influencing the economy what exactly is happening then inflation is kicking in globally personally i think the main cause for inflation is due to all the government spending supply chain issues obviously aren't helping either shipping prices are still through the roof and thus still have to be felt somewhere along the supply chain but the people who printed all that money will never take any blame but this wasn't some bubble that popped and left everyone broke like the gfc we aren't going to witness something like a potential crypto bubble this time to pop and cause the recession no it would appear the government likely did this one all by themselves when inflation runs high the number one move with monetary policy is increasing interest rates that's right that's how you break the back of inflation you increase rates if we look back historically and want to talk about high inflation then it's hard not to bring up the start of the 80s inflation hit a peak of 13 and a half percent in 1981 although that does seem higher than the inflation we have today it was not measured quite the same and today cpi figures have a bit of fat trimmed them compared back to 40 years ago i think that inflation was still a result of coming off the gold standard 10 years prior and then of course the oil crisis on top of that it was extreme times either way that was a big figure and paul volcker the federal chairman at the time rose rates as high as around 20 wow imagine if we had rates at 20 today how long would you last on your mortgage payments before you had to default does this mean we now have to brace ourselves for rate rises this high no the world's changed since we are an even larger debt-based society we've been managing monetary policy thus far and society has remained intact can we manage it this time too the gfc was a really scary time it took a long time to get out of and a lot of people lost their homes and life savings we don't want to go through that again due to all this debt now and not just from the gfc bailouts but of course the covert spending too in fact especially the covert spending this means that the fed don't have as strong control over monetary policy their powers are somewhat limited the less debt to gdp ratio the government has then the more effective monetary policy can be but with debt where it is today well they're running out of juice and it's not just the government but the population too all living on debt depending on low rates and here we are today the dilemma the fed face a big fire and just a small fire extinguisher the fed need to use what they have as effectively as possible using scare tactics to reverse spending as if this gets more out of control the fed are going to be more limited as to what they can do meanwhile this inflation is wiping out people's life savings biden needs to stand confident and look like he has a control on inflation yet at the same time he can't totally kill the markets either the way i see it currently is there is a balance now between the level of inflation we're going to see and the level of recession we will see and i really don't know what will happen the best trading strategy might be to straddle right now which is when you have puts and calls expect volatility but in which direction we aren't sure i think it's possible we might still see a further 15 percent correction in the market to around pre-covert level with average s p pes closer to 15 compared to 20.
on the other hand the markets could go up another 50 percent for all we know before they actually crash and we see a real route rather than just a correction could the markets really go up well in a sense although it would possibly be more the dollar going down or inflating or even hyperinflating i am of the belief that this will be more likely to happen i don't think they have that much of a chance keeping a lid on inflation historically over the last couple of decades we see in each recession that they can only raise the rates so high each time this is due to the fact that governments also have to pay interest on their national debts governments only have so much actual income to cover this interest the only other way to pay for it is borrow more now if you're borrowing to pay interest on your debt then the currency is going to keep inflating it might be that this time governments have borrowed so much that they're not able to raise the interest rates to a high enough level to break the inflation which is going to be tough hence perhaps economic scare tactics to get out of this at least what will help would be some real leadership right now the government should be doing everything they can to sort out supply chains and reduce the cost of oil inflation isn't just about interest rates but allowing commerce to flow freely without bottlenecks that can create the inflation all right now let's look at historic auto sales during similar times to see if we can gather how bad this might be for tesla and perhaps the auto industry as a whole now in the great recession in the us auto sales dropped to as low as 10 million a year in 2009 down from 16 million in 2007 that's a big drop in fact from 2007 it took around until 2017 until the numbers were up that high again but it had mostly recovered by 2012.
either way that is a big drop but this was a big recession in fact a lot of people think the next one we enter will also be some of the ongoing side effects still from the previous global financial crisis either way that's a 40 difference between the high and the low in the space of two years for u.s auto sales remember though this was the mature ice industry tesla is in the rapidly growing ev industry it's possible that although the market size of orders in general is going to be smaller in a down economy it's also possible that the eevee industry itself is still growing possible well i hope very likely indeed therefore tesla is still in a growing industry and likely when the 46 eddies ramp up tesla will also be back to a growing market share in the growing industry and what about the competition well if they lose demand it means they may have to drop prices which mean they will lose even more dollars on every ev they sell but i do think the ev industry should still grow i also think supply of ice will dwindle anyway and consumers will have less ice available to them to purchase yeah the legacy orders might struggle a bit through this recession we'll go into more detail on that in another video in the past luxury auto brands that sell a lot more vehicles than tesla have made it through many recessions like mercedes and bmw but tesla's still in a growing industry and has a lot more profit margin than those other companies not to mention none of the debt i really can't express enough how much a better position tesla is in than any other auto company over that same period average car prices in the us went from a high of 28 000 in 2008 to a low of 23 000 in 2010 not adjusted for inflation but an 18 drop in price but it did recover quickly one thing about tesla though is that due to the vertical integration and level of automation along with generating its own energy in the factories as a result the business model is not so susceptible to inflation when compared to others it also results in tesla having larger margins which are a powerful weapon to use if the mod is looking weaker so judging by what happened in the last recession demand for autos could be down as much as 40 and prices for orders could be down a further 18 now that doesn't mean prices of vehicles will be dropping more so that the consumers are moving to lower cost models it would be great if tesla could educate the consumer base better on the true cost of ownership of a tesla relative to an ice vehicle then it may change the consumer perception that tesla's a better value than people realize even better value than the equivalent ice well you know only if tesla needed the extra demand i think tesla might be all right in a recession people will still need to buy cars and in my opinion tesla is the most likely to be the last one standing if it ever came to that as in tesla could outlast the worst recessions longer than any of them tesla has so many tools left to get through a recession and i believe when it comes out the other side it will be leaner and stronger and there may be fewer competitors around
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