저자: MohamedEl-Erian · 외국인
요약 보기
파월 연준 의장에 대한 형사 수사는 7년간 이어진 연준-행정부 갈등의 단계적 확대로 해석. 연준 독립성 보존과 책임성 강화를 동시에 달성할 출구 전략이 필요하나 아직 보이지 않음. 시장은 위원회 구조상 의장 한 명이 금리를 좌우하기 어려워 차분하지만, 정치적 금리 결정이 의심되면 채권 자경단(bond vigilantes)이 금리 상승으로 응징할 수 있음. 영국 트러스 사례 언급. S&P500이 사상 최고치를 기록한 것은 의아하나 제도적 견제가 있다고 봄. 미국이 글로벌 경제 내 위상을 잃으면 세계가 달러 비중을 줄일 수 있고, 금 가격 상승이 이를 시사한다고 진단.
다듬은 글
First of all, on the actual, if you will, action, do you see, accepting the legitimacy of what any investigation, do you see um this as being an attack on the independence of the Fed? I see it as an inevitable step of a feud that's been going on for seven years, Richard. And the longer this feud continued, the more likely we got we're going to have a major escalation.
And last night we got a major escalation from both sides, from the DOJ and also from Chair Pal's unprecedented response. And the key issue you you raised it is what's the offramp here? And that's what's really hard to find. We hope that there's a way of combining preserving the independence of the central bank, which is critical, with greater accountability, accountability is weak right now, and major reforms to the way the Fed operates so that we don't get repeated mistakes.
But how we get there, I don't see it as yet. Okay. But if we just take this, there are, you know, this is this isn't in isolation. Of course, you have the Lisa Cook incident. You've got the president saying I will only appoint somebody who agrees with me and is going to lower interest rates. You have an environment where if say pal falls or even after May when he goes it's difficult to see that the that the independence is intact if you will the to put it in a crud term the virginity remains intact of the fed's independence.
So, so Powell is going his his term as chair, not as Fed governor, as chair finishes in May and he will be gone and we will have a new Fed chair if Congress um approves the nominee. Look, the reason why the markets are calm and really if you look at the end of the day, the reaction has been very muted is because people know that interest rate decisions are a function of the whole committee of the voting members of the committee and while the chair is first among equal, he cannot easily sway the committee.
People also know that the bond market um will will have a say if it believes that we are setting policies now according to political issues and not economic issues and the memories of the 70s are still there. So it doesn't surprise me that the initial market alarm which wasn't a really loud alarm would reversed by the end of the day.
But this phrase that those of us who've been around a year or two, you know, the bond vigilantes, um, we used to use that phrase when we were talking about LBOs and all of that and, uh, and bringing companies to book if they were taking on too much debt, the bond vigilantes. How does the bond vigilante play out in something as large and liquid as the US government debt markets?
Oh, very easily. If if the bond market believes that the Fed will be irresponsible and that will result in higher inflation, the the bond market will want to be compensated more and you will see yields go up. You know, we saw I don't want to make the comparison too closely, but the UK felt the pressure from the bond vigilantes when Liz Trust tried to implement um these unfunded tax cuts and it she had to change courses.
The bond market can play a role, but the bond market isn't alarmed right now for good reason, which is that the way the the Fed functions means that a new chair will will need time to impose their authority and will not simply be able to change the whole way the Fed functions. There there's a there's a point though that the bond market isn't worried until the bond market is in a sense and and that turns on a dime very with the first it it's very difficult to spot that moment but once it's happened it's brutal.
Correct. And you don't want to get close to it. I completely agree with you. You don't want to get close to it. Um and that is the threat and people understand that this the Treasury Secretary understands that. Certainly the five people that are finalists for this position understand that. Um so that is clearly understood.
It is interesting however that the the the S&P ended up at a record high after this and and a lot of people are puzzled. I'm not puzzled. I think that there are checks and balances in the system. Do I want to see this mess go on? Absolutely not. It is not good for the standing of the US in the global economy.
Give on on that. Let's finish on that last point about it's because really again for people like yourself this is not so much a I mean we can pass it out with this decision and that statement and this action and as you say any given day of trading but at the end of the day it comes down to a um you know the smell test how it all looks and feels because that's what markets trade on over medium to longer periods and there how do you feel about all of So, so I am worried because the rest of the world is overweight the US.
They use the US as a reserve currency. They trust their savings and their wealth to US financial markets because the US is perceived not as pristine but as the cleanest dirty shirt. There's nowhere else that's better than the US. If the US starts eroding its standing in the global economy, then the rest of the world will look to reduce its overweight.
And what's been happening to the price of gold is an indication that at the margin people are reducing the exposure to the US dollar. Gosh, thank you, sir. I'm so grateful to have you on the program tonight. Excellent. As always, in difficult times, I'm grateful. Thank you.
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