Economist Mohamed El-Erian on the growing energy crisis

요약 보기

유가 공급 차질(사우디 파이프라인 피해, 정유 차질)로 브렌트 103달러, 디젤 갤런당 6.46달러까지 상승. 에너지발 인플레이션으로 주요 중앙은행 3곳이 10일 내 금리 인상, 미 10년물 5%·모기지 7%로 경기 부담 가중. 경기는 버티고 있으나 여유가 소진되고 있으며, 주식시장은 AI 투자와 실질 이익에 의존하고 있어 이익 둔화 여부를 주시해야 함. 경제 K자형 양극화로 여론 불만이 큼.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Gasoline prices are extremely high, largely as a result of US policy. The disruption to oil supplies from the Middle East is about to get worse. According to Bloomberg, Saudi Aramco has informed two European refineries that they will not receive crude oil shipments next month. The company is working on repairing its East-West pipeline, which reaches the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.

02. The pipeline was damaged this month in an attack linked to the Iranian-backed Houthis. Brent crude remains stubbornly high, trading at $103 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate is slightly below. I am accompanied by Mohamed El-Erian, who has been very patient and kind with his time, a professor at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania.

03. That is: first, thank you for waiting, because I need to put into perspective the energy crisis the world is facing and, by the way, much worse in parts where there are now riots and protests over fuel, due to a release of forces caused by the US and Israeli attacks on Iran. Yes, we have had a major disruption in the oil supply.

04. We have also had a major disruption in oil refining. Therefore, not only are crude oil prices higher, but more importantly, and the figure I look at every morning, is what happens to refined products, diesel in particular. So we've seen diesel reach $6.46 per gallon today. Which, as you know, is used in the transport of practically everything we buy in stores.

05. That will be a problem in the future, exacerbated by the fact that people have to pay much more at the gas pumps. If we consider the increase in US interest rates by the Fed yesterday, and that there will probably be one or two more. We are entering a slowdown cycle to reduce inflation. I mean, that will simply feed itself, perhaps for valid economic reasons .

06. But in your opinion, will this situation become more difficult and complicated? It will be in the short term. Three of the four major central banks have raised interest rates in the last 10 days. Because? Because inflation is higher. Why is inflation higher? Due to energy prices. And yet, the fact that the central bank raises interest rates has no effect on energy prices.

07. What they are trying to do is prevent that from being passed on to other prices. How do they achieve that? Trying to reduce demand. So, you see the connection here, that there is an impact. They cannot respond directly to the impact. They do something else. And let's not forget market rates. Today, the 10- year bond returns to 5%.

08. Mortgage rates are already at 7%. So it also has the impact of higher borrowing costs on the economy . Therefore, additional headwinds. So far, the economy has been incredibly resilient. But we are exhausting the margins. We are exhausting oil margins, inventories, and we are exhausting financial margins.

09. The stock market has been supported by investment in AI, whether it's data centers or whatever, or self-financing, if you will, circular financing within the AI ​​ecosystem. But how long can that continue? Because at some point, yes, with faith and hope that it will generate profits in the future; But if the economy doesn't slow down, has higher interest rates, higher productivity costs, eventually, surely, that investment in AI must begin to crack.

10. Yes, and as you said at the beginning of the program, spending on AI has been really significant. That has been a shield for the economy, as have these inventories, but the shield for the market has been the real and anticipated profits from AI. That has been a critical factor that has allowed markets to basically ignore everything we talked about before.

11. So, profits become really important, and everyone is focused on them. So far, they are not being significantly affected , but that's what you need to look at if you invest in the stock market. I'm doing everything I can to make sure I don't bring it into the political arena. But, at the end of the day, there is a discrepancy between the way the president describes the performance of the US economy, which is doing better than most, I admit.

12. But the way the numbers start to show up in amber, even in red. And that's the discrepancy that makes me wonder if we should be more concerned at the moment. So, we've had that discrepancy for a while now. If you recall, under President Biden, they were proud of Bidenomics, they were proud of how the economy was doing, and yet all the polls suggested that people were dissatisfied.

13. And that shows us that we have a very unequal economy. Parts of it are very good. If you're in the stock market, you've done very well, but half the population isn't in the stock market. Growth has been uneven. Well, there's this notion of a K-shaped economy where low-income households are under tremendous pressure.

14. So what usually happens is that the aggregate numbers don't show how uneven the growth has been or how unequal the financial rewards have been , and that's why poll after poll over the past 6 years tells us that Americans are very dissatisfied with the economic situation. Now, we're grateful that you stayed .

15. That's certainly our gain tonight. Thank you for joining us. Have a nice weekend. I am grateful. Thank you, sir.