Economist Mohamed El-Erian on the inevitability of why the AI bubble is rational and inevitable

요약 보기

AI 버블 논란 속 엘-에리언은 이를 '합리적 버블'로 규정. 투기적 과열은 있으나 막대한 잠재 수익 때문에 합리적이며, 소수 승자에게 큰 보상이 몰리고 나머지는 도태된다고 봄. 다만 AI 라벨 남용, 부채·순환 금융 등은 위험 신호. 장기적으로 범용기술로서 생산성을 크게 높일 것이라 낙관. 투자자는 단기 조정(10~20%)에 대비하되 과도한 공포는 불필요, 펀더멘털 좋은 기업을 매수 대기.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Wall Street closed higher, finishing a choppy week of trading. The Dow and the S&P lost more than one and a half%. Investors received some, you can see the way the week went. It's already been a bit tricky really one way and other. You see, think about it. We had strong earnings from Walmart and Nvidia, good job growth in September.

02. You've got concerns about the Feds and the possible next decision, and then the AI bubble. All week, we've been asking our guests about the AI bubble. Most people accept that we are in some sort of bubble or balloon. The market is facing several threats. Most notably, of course, the AI and skyhigh valuations.

03. If it were a bubble, few people would be calling it a bubble when it's really a bubble. Most people are calling it an opportunity. We have the profitable and the unprofitable, the chip makers. Now they are also profitable. I mean, do we get lofty levels when we get some AI headlines that that move our markets higher?

04. Yes. And that's the that's the breath of our market. That's what moves it back and forth. But I I I don't think we're trading at these such inflated levels where there's a bubble that's that's going to burst. Now, two options, informed opinions. We are not in a bubble. Our next guest Larian says AI could be a rational bubble.

05. He says, "Whatever the bubble is an inevitable part of developing and adopting a revolutionary tool that will fundamentally improve productivity and growth." The Wharton professor, the Alian adviser, Muhammad Elaran is with me now. This is exactly what we've been saying, you and I on this program. The inevitability of a new way of working, if you will.

06. It I don't know why. Who knows why? But it produces this disproportionate bubble effect. And that's the issue indeed. And it happens for a number of reasons, Richard. First, people bet on lots of potential winners because the payoff is so huge, but there will be only a handful of winners. Secondly, we seeing what we saw during the.com period.

07. companies are putting a AI label on what they're doing and attracting money simply for for changing their label. And then thirdly, we seeing some companies involved in the arm race of AI starting to resort to a lot of debt financing to a lot of circular financing and that normally doesn't end well. But you know what the underlying result will be to direct a lot of capital into an area full of innovation which will produce the equivalent of electricity meaning a general purpose technology that impacts so much of what we do and we as a whole will be better off.

08. Would you class what we are seeing as irrational exuberance? So it's definitely exuberance but it is rational because the payoff is so huge. Compare it to the other extreme the tulip bubble when people were betting on tulips. That was completely irrational. This is rational. There will be winners but you're betting on many many horses.

09. A few horses will will get enormous payoffs and the rest are going to end up in the glue factory. What a beautiful turn of phrase for a Friday. Uh but Muhammad the the point about this is you know in that scenario you in terms of market investor strategy you hold your own. Yes, you maybe take a profit and you prepare for maybe a 10, 15, 20% downturn if it happens in a market because that's what markets do, but you don't get too unduly concerned.

10. Correct. And you get ready to buy the companies that are likely to be winners. You've you've just skated to some very very thin ice there, Muhammad. You're you're heading dangerously. I'm happy to skate there because ultimately good investors have three characteristics, Richard, as you know. One, resilience.

11. You can absorb a shortterm downturn in the market. You need resilience for that. Two, agility. Certain names overshoot on the way up, but they also overshoot on the way down. And taking advantage of that, especially companies with really sound fundamentals. And then the third issue is to be open-minded to understand like like we're having this discussion as to the dynamics that are leading this are dynamic we've seen elsewhere.

12. This is fascinating because my over the course of particularly this week, my view on the market has changed from one of this is a bubble that'll probably end badly to no, it's a I think you you you phrase I misled the article in front, but this is a rational bubble that's inevitable in these environments, but actually it makes perfect sense.

13. I completely agree. And not only does it make perfect sense, it will leave lead us better off. Um, it is remarkable what AI will enable as long as we make sure it is diffused properly. It's adopted properly. As long as the mindset of companies is not just on labor displacement, but on labor enhancing, because that's where the real promise is.

14. as long as bad actors are mitigated against. These are all possible steps that we should be taking to mitigate the risks. But I have no doubt in my mind that this is a significant productivity promise at a really important time and I'm grateful. Have a lovely weekend. So glad to have you on the program tonight, Robert, as always. Thank you, sir.