저자: RyanHannifan · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: SOXL(반도체 3배 레버리지)은 단기 하락 가능성이 높다고 보고 보유분을 매도했다. [종목·추세 분석] SOXL은 올해 200% 이상 상승한 강한 상승 추세다. 일봉 기준으로 1~3파 상승 후 4파 조정을 거쳐 현재 5파 구간 진입으로 판단했다. [피보나치 근거] 피보나치 200%(227 부근)에서 저항을 받아 매도했다고 설명했다. [단기 하락 근거] 30분·5분봉에서 엘리엇 파동 5파 완성 신호가 보인다고 봤다. 헤드앤숄더 패턴이 나타났다고 봤다. [지표 다이버전스] RSI, 머니플로우, CCI가 하락 전환하는데 가격은 상승해 약세 다이버전스가 나타났다. [예측 및 리스크] 단기적으로 이전 채널 상단 지지선까지 하락 후 횡보를 예상했다. 이후 방향은 확신하지 못한다고 밝혔다. 반도체 전반에 대해 1~2주 단기 약세를 전망했다. [기타] 발표 시점은 2017년 5월 31일 전후다. 영상 설명란과 제목에 명시된 출연자 소속 정보는 없다.
다듬은 글
hey guys what's going on my name is Ryan I do technical analysis on leveraged etfs in which I trade and I like to share them with you anyways we're going to be going over two extra each yesterday we've got socks all semiconductors spxl the market TMF bonds are USL Russia brdu Brazil you guys natural-gas ERX Energy GDX gold XIV volatility LA bu biotech and uwp crude oil so starting off each of these are on the daily scale and I do my trading on the 5-minute in fifteen minutes so right now I have each of these charts set up for the daily scale just to start off with the general trend and we will be on you know narrowing it down to the 15-minute the 5-minute and then the 1 minute just to show the price action but this is to identify the mega trend that's going on for example with so Excel we can see that the trend is most certainly been up all year I think it's up over 200 so percent so let's get right into it actually first of all to identify the super trend that's going on here we have our consolidation zone and then we have our breakout this is our 1 2 3 so leg-up is 3 4 and I think that we're coming into our fifth wave right now and I actually sold out all of my shares of ESCO XL and I'll show you guys why zoom in to the to our chart see if we can identify anything else so we just came out of a long three wave and I was able to identify a mini Elliot wave in between it we've got our breakout zone here and we've got our one two three four five and we have a retracement ADC all the way down to the bottom of this channel and we come into our next wave let's go into the 30-minute chart and look at this wave actually drew a new channel here just to identify the price action we see a low high low high low high so this channel is significant at this point I also drew this anyways let's get into it we've got five ways so in our super trend we are entering what I believe to be our fifth wave and I also see that we are entering a fifth wave in this new leg here so we've got a one two three big sell-off four and I think that this is going to be five up here this is further supported by other things that I see going on right here this Fibonacci right here this just shows the power of Fibonacci you can basically draw good lines at like any point in a chart and it could be like months later years later a price will get up to a certain level and bounce off and you'll be like why is that and you'll realize later that it is Fibonacci level for example I drew this line this is my start see I drew it up to this one 100% came down to the sixty one point eight and then it ran all the way up to the two hundred percent right here and I sold out at the 227 so I just wanted to show you guys the powers of nachi levels and how they are relevant in trading I'm going to delete this notes I think it makes the chart kind of crowded let's get further into it and in the five minutes that's where it starts getting relevant this five minutes still captures you know two weeks two three four weeks worth of price action so it is still relevant to us but we've got our ABC here and then um this is our larger Elliott Wave right here but along I have price moving in a Elliott Wave inside of an elegant wave inside an Elliott Wave so we've got our one two three four and five so that's three Elliot waves that I have drawn a super trend a medium term trend and a Elliott Wave from the last couple weeks of trading action all of them ending right here this is also supported because it's at the top of the trend right now and the last thing that really set it off for me also the Fibonacci was at 2:27 percent which you know major you know resistance alone resistances own just naturally going to one minute and show you guys the final thing that set me off was his head and shoulders that I saw it was pretty obvious I saw its left shoulder came down this head in this right shoulder if you want more evidence I have a divergence on the RSI and basically all indicators we see are RSI turning down right here our money flow turning down and our CCI turning down and yet we have price meaning upwards so all these facts was the reason that I exited the trader there so what do I expect rise to do I strike price to come down to this previous channel and consolidate and after that I really don't know what might happen a larger timeframe divergence that I saw here in the 15 minute was I'm five minutes now I was on 15 was this price action we see that our RSI Peaks right here it makes a lower one and this could also be a little long and here we have price moving upwards marks by this blue arrow right here see what I mean here we've got our RSI just tuning down and price just moving up these things can't happen together so for the meantime I embarrass on semiconductors alright so lastly let's just do our due diligence and write out the reasons why we are bearish the W stands for Elliott Wave medium term coming to this GW short term coming to v GW RSI divergence top of channel and lastly we have a head and shoulders so all these together support my short term thesis that semiconductors might be bearish for the next week or two and I expect them to drop down to this previous support line and new trend alright moving on to the overall market what do we have here
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