저자: RyanHannifan · 외국인
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결론: 반도체 ETF SOXL은 장기적으로는 강세를 유지하지만 단·중기적으로는 탑핑 패턴이 나타나 하락 가능성이 크다고 판단함. 상승장 단계론: 축적·상승·광기의 블로우오프 3단계 중 현재 반도체(SMH 등)는 3단계에 진입한 것으로 봄. 8~9년간 이어진 성숙한 강세장이라는 해석. 과거 패턴 사례: 블로우오프 단계에서는 메가폰/쐐기 형태 횡보 후 헤드앤숄더 등 주요 반전 패턴이 나타나는 경우가 많다고 설명. SOXL 엘리엇 파동: 최근 상승 채널을 이탈했다가 하단 장기 채널로 복귀했으며, 다시 상단 채널 회복을 시도하나 실패 중. 2시간봉 기준 과매수 상태에서 거래량 다이버전스가 나타나고 오버스로우 패턴이 형성됨. 하락 시나리오: 기존 예측은 A하락-B반등(61.8% 되돌림 저항 거절)-C하락 완성. 현재 C 구간 하락 진행 중으로 보며, 1시간봉 약한 횡보 후 38.2%·23.6% 피보나치 지지선까지 추가 하락 가능성 언급. 가격 기준 약 95달러 부근에서 약 78.5달러까지 하락 여지 제시. 9파동 탑핑 패턴: 엘리엇 9파동 상승 완료로 해석, 드문 패턴이라고 강조. 이 과정에서 주식을 매도했고 약 10~15달러 추가 상승을 지켜봄. 단기 패턴: 30분봉 대칭삼각형/페넌트 형태로 하방 이탈 시 측정 목표가 도달 예상. 목표는 기존 상승 쐐기 시작점 부근. 다음 주 전망: 단·중기 약세, 장기는 반도체 수요 기반으로 낙관. 다음 주 목표 가격대 약 82.5~80달러. 리스크: 기술적 패턴 기반 예측이며 패턴 무효화 가능성 존재. 하락 후 저가 구간에서 물량 축적 계획 언급.
다듬은 글
guys what's going on my name is Ryan I trade ETF and like to do my technical analysis and make videos of them so here today we've got s o excel representing the semiconductors it is the same as you know s MH which is another role owned semiconductor name you can see that the price pattern is very similar for xox L we can see here that we have a long term Elliott Wave and perhaps a overthrow pattern we're going to get into all of this but this week I learned a lot about faces of the market just because I'm seeing a lot of topping action in many sectors and basically what it says is that there are three phases to to a full cycle there's phase 1 which is the accumulation phase phase 2 which is the markup phase in phase 3 which is the manic blow-off phase and I think that we are in phase 3 and we're seeing the manic phase blowout phase the reason that I think that is because phase 1 basically you know this is the accumulation where the major buyers step in they're going to hold it for several years and this basically the smart money phase 2 is when the retail traders start to step in and they see how high it's going and they all step in to try and ride some of this action up this is called the market place and each of them get progressively higher and progressively they rise progressively with more volume or more velocity at each level so this one is fairly sideways upwards momentum this one we see an increase in momentum and this one is just an all-out let's race to the top basically so what I was most interested in is reviewing a bunch of articles and examples of what happens in the third phase of manic blow-off phase and the most common situation that happened is we run up and we move sideways a little bit into this megaphone type pattern is my bid descending triangle or ascending triangle and then we have one final leg upwards into a head and shoulders and head and shoulders is a major reversal pattern the measured move might only be this much but the longer-term psychology behind move is that it's a topping pattern and trends will likely change after it's come in is completed so this is for s mhm this is just an example of the phases here I'd like to show this and this is in this has been a massive bull run in semiconductors for the better part of the last eight or nine years here so this has been a full mature bull market and I think that we are entering the part of Phase three where we start to slow down and move sideways so the daily and let's go back to SOF L excite more technical analysis as far as Elliot waves come we have our one two three four and five and I have shorter term Elliot waves but what I've been saying in my videos for the previous weeks is we were in this nice uptrend for a long time and recently we broke out of it and we created a higher unsustainable channel upwards and I was saying this is unsustainable right about here once we broke out about this and I was worried for several weeks because it just continued to move higher and it's worried for about two weeks I was saying well I really think it's a kind of lower at some point it cannot just keep on running up and you finally see that and what's interesting is we actually broke out of this medium term channel here and we fill back into this longer-term channel so what you might expect to see is we drop down into this longer-term channel our original channel and we came back up and we are trying to test and get back into this shorter term more vertically sloped channel but we're having some trouble with that and you can see that based on the wicks here you can see hi wicks all the way every time we you know try and get back up into the channel we have yet to have the actual physical body or the candle close in this range again so there's a lot of indecision going on right here and let's take a look at that on the two hour chart so on the 2 hour chart I change this much from last week but we had our overthrow pattern right here marking a lot of profit taking on this riff we had this medium turn Elliott Wave where we come up with our 1 2 3 4 & 5 marked by overthrow we have this divergence right here as our volume these are high right here and we progressively get lower while price progressively gets higher this is a regular divergence and I was expecting a big drop but what is an overkill an overthrow is a well noted pattern in a wedge and they occur in almost every single what you will see so we come up we set our 1 2 3 4 5 and our 5th wave actually breaks above the previous resistance line before coming back down into the pattern and breaking all the way down to our target area which is the beginning of our ascending triangle so if we take this and our sending triangle starts right here this should be the target area the end of this bearish run downwards is corrected phase but you have this 1 2 3 4 & 5 and this is the overthrow right here it's a good example of what an overthrow pattern is so my prediction going back to last week was that we are going to fall down set in our a come up set in our B get rejected off of this 61.8% fib line and come down to make our full retracement here at C we have yet to come down to C and at the moment this is all I'm predicting because that we come down to see and there are several indications of this on shorter timeframes folks with one hour take a look at those shorter timeframes one hour again I have here in text that's the original beginning of the wedge as well as an area of consolidation basically had no consolidation here and run up and so it was easy for us to grade all the way down on our way down now we're coming into some weak consolidation here at the 38.2% fib this is fairly weak but what's stronger consolidation pattern is in this range right here we see a lot of price movement this is for a sturdy base for us to come down here to that's why that's my rationale for us coming all the way down here to this 23.6% fib in this market a massive drop for excel this is $95 right here and this is about 78 50 down here so there's a lot more downside to come in my so for the longest time and you can see here for this Elliott Wave I have in here this was an extended 9 way pattern and they don't happen all that often that's why I'm going back and referring to him so trading view doesn't have a nine way pattern so I just continued this here so bear with me but this is the Elliott Wave I was seeing I started calling it out at five I said you know I sold out my shares here I think that there's more downside to come after this and for about a week and a half I watched us move up another you know ten fifteen dollars and was pretty startled but things are starting to take root now so the Elliott Wave here is one two three four five six seven eight and nine this is a nine wave topping pattern for Elliott Wave and you don't see these all that often that's why it's interesting for me to be able to witness something like this so here in this channel right here is my target to my original target was right here and my target two is down here I've since deleted this target because we've already reached this target and I'll be accumulating a boatload of shares down here in semiconductors at this lower price range down here however if you can start to identify what might be a new pattern playing out here and let's go ahead and see where we're at so on higher time frames like for example on the daily I have the sneaking suspicion that this looks like a bear flag we come down and we're flagging out sideways slightly higher and we could see a lower so keeping that in mind we'll go to the to our see if it's still relevant on that yep we see kind of a flag pattern taking place here but once we go to the 30-minute we see that this is not exactly a flag pattern because this is higher than over here if this high wasn't here and we just drew it from this this would be a legitimate flag pattern however to me this looks a little bit more like a symmetrical triangle so let's go ahead and draw the symmetrical triangle something a little bit like this it's kiss these up and so what would the ways of a symmetrical triangle say about this so we would come in set our first support this would be our first resistance this would be a B perhaps C D and then this might be e right now kiss these up a little bit make it look pretty so I'm seeing a pennant here on the 30 minute and the psychology of a pennant is that the measured room here comes from the bottom all the way up to the first resistance line go ahead and draw this visibility I only really wanted on the 30 minute so this is our measured mood right here let's go ahead and film this and you're supposed to bring it to the point of breakout I can see us breaking down at this point so let's go ahead and bring it right here and this would be my target - which also aligns pretty closely with the start of this ascending wedge there's my target 1 again line wave pattern question mark so going back about three weeks ago so there we have it this is my short-term pieces I'm what's going to happen in semiconductors next week long-term I am unequivocally bullish on semiconductors I think a lot of major companies need them but medium and short term I'm going to have to be a little bit bearish just because we have created a topping pattern on a number of different time frames and you're not seeing the bull's take it we're not seeing the bull's rescue this price down here price has been moving sideways to downwards and the Bears are starting to take over you can see that by this huge volume here and this huge volume bar over here so target for next week is going to be somewhere in 8250 to about $80 range and I will stop that in tomorrow or I'll stop back in next week and see how we're doing on this prediction this has been my analysis on semiconductors and if you got anything out of this video this video is taking a long time to first do the technical analysis myself from the off-screen film it download it edit it upload it to youtube and then finally push it to start to its each of these videos takes me a long time usually have about 25 minutes of recorded video and I chop this down to about 15 minutes in the editing phase and I've been having a lot of fun with it and will continue to make videos I hope to see you next week and I wish you the best luck in treating bye now
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