저자: RyanHannifan · 외국인
요약 보기
SOXL(3배 반도체 ETF) 기술적 분석 영상으로, 단기 조정(하락) 가능성을 높게 봄. 거시 패턴: 장기 엘리엇 파동상 반도체는 슈퍼사이클 5파 상승을 거의 마친 것으로 보고, 최근 급등은 지속 불가능한 패러볼릭 상승이라고 평가함. 93~110달러 구간 상승을 예측했으나 시기는 약 1.5주 빗나갔다고 인정함. 중기 패턴: 중기 엘리엇 파동 1~5파 완성 후 ABC 조정 시나리오를 제시. 최근 주간 상승이 하루 이틀에 압축되어 지지선이 부족하다고 봄. 38.2% 피보나치 지지선이 과열된 주가를 버티기엔 약하다고 판단. 지표: CCI와 RSI에서 고점은 높아지는데 지표는 낮아지는 베어리시 다이버전스를 근거로 제시. 오버스로(overthrow) 패턴 완성 후 하락 전환 시나리오. 웨지 패턴 이론상 패턴 시작점인 23.6% 지지 수준(약 85~88달러대 부근)까지 하락 가능성 언급. 단기 30분봉 기준 9파 확장 패턴(천장 패턴) 가능성을 언급하며, 추가로 5~6달러 하락을 예상. 하락 시 포지션을 추가 매수할 계획이라고 밝힘. 장기적으로는 애플 등 주요 기업에서 반도체가 중요한 역할을 계속할 것으로 봐 중장기 낙관 유지. 단기 핵심 리스크: 88.10~88.25 수준 이탈 시 추가 하락. RSI 50선 재돌파 실패가 여전히 약세 신호로 해석됨. 영상은 2017년 6월 18일 게시, 설명란 없음.
다듬은 글
guys what's one online is Ryan I trade ETS and I like to make videos to show some of the technical analysis that I'm seeing in the market so we've got s o XL representing our semiconductors and let's get started so first thing s oxo many of you might not be familiar with it it is neat three times semiconductor ETF but I believe SFM H is the one times ETF and you can see a very similar price pattern in the SN h one time in ETF as you can in the SL SL so here we have long term Elliot wave of one two three four five and you can see that I have the spares case I've kept this here for a long time now he's getting very nervous I turned parishes soon at this point hit right here 93 dollar level and all the way up to 110 I was off by about a week and a half and doing videos and one still bearish everyone prices going up so much but it did and something to keep in mind in the markets is that you can be correct in your price direction where it should go if you're not right in on when it will go there and doesn't really matter so as far as a long-term Elliott Wave goes I saw a super cycle one two three four five and I have two more Elliot waves in this cycle that all end here atlas v Elliott with I have a medium-term one from one two three four five and a short-term one on this last leg up here so we have seen a fairly significant pullback here in SOL and also in the Q's and s mhm and I think it's long overdue but here just sticking with the daily for a second we can see that we had this long-term beautiful channel upwards and then we set in this more parabolic channel right here and finally we went fully parabolically just went basically straight up so that was kind of an unsustainable uptrend there and I marked this here with new unsustainable uptrend RRS I was at a hive of I think it was 85 and we had only seen that hive in our side three other times in the chart patterns history so I was having a bearish thing for a little while there let's get down to smaller timeframes and taking a closer look at things so I started to see me a bit of a rising wedge going on set in this is my medium-term Elliott Lee if I have a one two three four five this is a medium Turner and remember that the supercycle came down as a three four or five this is my medium turn one and my ABC prediction as to where price will go this is coming off of last week I still think that you know we came down we set our a I thought we bounced up and said I read it and I think that we still have yet to fall down and hit our C reason I think they're going to go to C is because we have very little consolidation on the way up and you can see that because we basically grow through you know these multiple weeks of uptrend in a single day or two so there was no support on the way down and got you know this minor support right here at the 38.2% fib level I don't think that this minor support level is strong enough to hold this overextended price action that we've had all year basically we can see a divergence on the CCI which starts here at about the top of this right here and one lower way to the fifth wave you can see a high right here and a lower high in bullish volume coming into the stock as our stock continues to run higher and higher so they divergence and other divergence that we saw it was a high right here and then a lower high it in RSI as price makes a higher high in price so with the wedge we kind of came up in here and set our a b c d e we had our overthrow pattern which is very common to breakout above and then fall back through so this is pretty textbook overthrow pattern as far as my previous analysis with ABC this might have actually been a shorter current time frame and then I was expecting as expecting this play out over you know a couple weeks however it might have happened in a one week or couple days where we came down set our a this might be B here and you might see a C closer to something like this switch the one-hour chart I just basically have the same exact thing you see this is the original beginning of the wedge plus consolidation the pattern theory with wedges net prices will return to the beginning of for the pattern again so if this is where our pattern began this is where price will likely go and it also coincides with our 23.6% support level or expire to the notch e let's go to the 30-minute so like I said I guess first of all I have my target to down here marked by this box and this text right here this is my second target I believe it the ABC pattern but I decided to leave this here this is my short-term Elliott Wave that I have outlined here and I think I talked about this in my video for the last two weeks is that this might be an extended 9 wave pattern which is a topping pattern for an Elliott Wave when price extends like this so we kind of you know trading view doesn't have a 9 wave pattern so I just kind of repeated this 1 2 3 4 5 but basically just bear with me we go 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 so that's a 9 wave pattern you can see that this is our overthrow area and then we just plumb it all the way down some reasons here in the 30-minute chart 30-minute chart covers the last two months of price actions so it is fairly significant in terms of our analysis goes far as our CCI we see a lower low right here which is a bearish signal and we have a higher low in price right here this is a bearish divergence and I expect this you know support level right here to not hold as well as anything I can see us fairly easily dropping down another five six dollars right here in which case I'll be adding on to my position because I do think in a more medium to long term perspective that semiconductors will continue to play a very important role in major companies such as Apple and whatnot and again you see here in the on the 15 minute I have 9 wave pattern question mark and this was my target when we hit this overthrow pattern if you don't believe me you can watch my previous videos and semiconductors but this is all going back to old to old analysis that I did on semiconductors I haven't changed much of the chart since then so this was my first target I thought we're going to come down to this 38.2 this was our first area of real support and consolidation right here worked by you know this price right here in this price and it was basically a straight shot up so I thought that we've come down to the first area of consolidation which looks like we just touched right here we shot back up right now we are barely holding on to these two support levels right here if I can zoom in to the 5-minute if I have anything there yes this is fairly clear so it looks like we're being supported right here and if we get below this 88 10 to 25 level I think that we will see further downside and a breakdown in price action but for right now let's get back to the 30 minute chart the 15 minute chart I had one last fairly important thing here so this is my first target but a reason why this is not another reason why this is not bullish per se is if you look at our RSI right here you can see how important this artists eye level is I had marked it out and blue right here but we've been rejected every single time you come up to it you know this is leading me to believe that this is continuing to be bearish I guess is because we have yet to breakout above 50 in the RSI you know if you take a look at it and you were a bull over here our RSI was very strong this entire way we never broke out below this 50 level and you know it was good to be a bull this entire running here as soon as we broke up under it though we have yet to regain it over here so as far as relative strength index goes which is one of the most trustworthy indicators out there I think that this is a which is continuing to be a fairly bearish pattern alright so this has been my analysis on s o XL s mhm your daily semiconductors and if you like this video please like and subscribe for weekly updates it really helps me out a lot and I wish you the best of luck in trading semiconductors next week have a Happy Father's Day alright
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