저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 단기 인플레이션은 당분간 낮고, 기술 혁신에 따른 생산성 향상과 유가 하락이 디플레이션 압력을 유지한다는 견해. 코로나 경기충격 대응: 초기 무차별 현금 살포는 수정되어 소상공인 대출 중심으로 바뀌었고, 이는 고용 인프라 유지에 도움이 된다고 평가. 급여세 면제(고용주·근로자 각 6~7%)가 유인책으로 낫다고 주장. 대기업 대출 조건(자사주 매입·배당 1년 제한)은 주주 압력으로 조기 정상화를 유도한다고 봄. 디플레이션 vs 인플레이션: QE 자금은 중앙은행 대차대조표에 머물러 있고, 통화 유통속도(velocity)는 하락 추세. 현재 M2 연 15% 성장에도 불구하고 실물 인플레이션은 최소 1.5~2년 후에야 나타날 수 있다고 전망. 인플레 억제 요인: 첫째, 유가 급락 및 장기적으로 배럴당 10달러 이하 전망(전기차·자율주행 확산). 둘째, 생산성 급등 전망으로 기업이 임금 인상, 가격 인하, 이익률 확대 중 하나로 활용하며 디스인플레이션 사이클 강화 예상. 중국의 혁신·디플레이션 경쟁도 같은 방향. 주의 신호: 다만 과거 2009년에도 시장이 인플레를 과소평가했던 사례를 들어, 장기적으로는 인플레 리스크를 경계해야 한다고 언급. 자산별 언급: 비트코인 — 아크 재량 포트폴리오에서 노출을 늘렸으며 인플레 보험 성격으로 정당화. 유가(원유) — 장기 하락 전망. 미국 달러 — 글로벌 준비자산 영향 우려 언급은 있으나 구체 방향 언급 없음. 출연자 리스크: 인플레 시점에 대한 불확실성, 고용·기업 생존 불안이 소비 위축 요인으로 남아 있다는 조건부 판단.
다듬은 글
so we kinda have a health crisis that's causing an economic crisis or kind of a shock as you described it there's a lot of economic policies that have been implemented what's kind of your general view of what's already been done and maybe even what needs to be done in the future right so you know my mentor is art Laffer I don't know if you're familiar with the Laffer curve supply-side economics but he advises Trump president Trump informally regularly and I know because I hear during the taskforce briefings I hear some of the things that art Laffer says coming out of President Trump's mouth in the beginning art was very frustrated that they were just throwing money at this just willy-nilly and effectively effectively throwing money at the idea that we don't want people to work and from from one point of view that was correct we wanted people if they could to work from home of course but we wanted them to be safe first and foremost they had as so the the programs that were being designed in the early days and we're just throw the money at them have been modified so that you're seeing more in the form of loans to small businesses and others that will have to be repaid after a long grace period so that is good just to keep the infrastructure in place to keep the to allow the employment to rebound afterwards instead of unlike in a recent recession where you have capital destruction you it takes a long time to work through it and then to come back so I think that's good I think it's good that they are sending checks out to those who can't we're living paycheck to paycheck but I think a more important way to help those people and would have the same effect would be to say and I've heard president Trump mention it I've been put into any legislation yet to basically go on a payroll tax holiday both both for the employers and the employees through the end of the year what would that do it would say it would encourage businesses who are getting these holidays and employees to get back to work as quickly as it possible to take advantage of the holiday and increase their returns by six to seven percent on either side that's huge that's the tax wedge that art Laffer talks about all the time if you get rid of that wedge you bring a lot more activity back much sooner than otherwise would be the case and I think the other in terms of the way they're treating larger corporations I think they're creating inducements to Rev back up faster what they're doing is they're saying okay if you take these loans then you cannot buy buy back shares or pay dividends for a year past when and I don't know if the legislation has changed your a bit but this is how it was being written a year past the day you repay those loans well what what will that cause shareholders certainly will want their companies to to get back on track much faster so they can pay back the loans to the government and then get back to paying dividends which for many people are a large chunk of their of their income especially a retirees and to repurchase shares which favors all shareholders so I think they're doing these are they're gradually getting it right and very sensitive you hear more and more about you hear certainly the president and the vice president talking about getting people back to work safely so you'll have pent focused on the safety and you'll have Trump focused on getting back to work and it's a good dynamic and an important dynamic I think yeah are you worried at all you know we're in a deflationary environment now there's a lot of QE going on are you one worried that we could over rotate on the inflationary side when we switch back and are there any impacts that you foresee potentially on the US dollar it's kind of a global asset or reserve asset mm-hmm okay so the first question and when we can and we can take some of we can inform the answer that question partly by what happened after Oh 809 so I remember when you know it was QE everything you know I remembered being concerned saying wow this is just such an inducement to take a lot of risk and just go out there and go for it that's not what happened what happened was people were so traumatized by the near breakdown of our financial and economic system that they were not sure we were going to be able to hold together and you know there are all kinds of uncertainties including what became the election year you know we had the European sovereign debt crisis we had in 16 oil prices crashing like they have recently and China seeming to implode and so every step along the way there was a reason for people to hold back and not throw everything that they have at risk-taking and in fact the loss the velocity of money which is the critical answer here has been falling and my guess is falling at an accelerated rate now and so all of that QE most of it is still sitting on the balance sheets of central banks now the way I think about that still is that is kindling for the fire potential fire that you're talking about but that kindling hasn't been lit for the past 10 years because every step along the way including the china-us trade conflict and the inverted yield curves everyone of those steps along the way has been a reason to recoil and say so the velocity of money has continued to come down now we have m2 today growing at a 15% year-over-year rate which is I believe the fastest I mean you have to go back a lot of years to see that I think many people have gotten used to this idea that we can throw anything we want at the system and velocity will fall and offset it there will be come a day and this could be the beginning but I don't think it well I don't think we'll see the ramifications in terms of inflation for I'm going to say at least a year and a half maybe two years because first we still do have a little bit of this seizing up and people saying is my job going to be there so that's one reason and business is the same is my business going to exist so again another reason if you look I just listened to the JP Morgan call this morning and you know so many businesses have taken down their revolvers completely you know so they are just awash in cash their own wash in cash and they did the same thing in a 809 but again nothing happened everybody being scared every step along the way so the reason we won't have an inflation problem for the next 18 months two years there are two reasons one oil prices have crashed and oil is a big part of you know the input and and there's a good reason secularly for oil to crash we talk about it all the time I think oil is going down longer-term to ten dollars or less per barrel and I've been saying that for a while that's a personal point of view and that's because of electric vehicles and autonomous electric vehicles at the margin gas powered cars are going to start losing out and commodity prices are determined at the margin that's what a lot of people miss when they say oh well electric vehicles are only two percent of all sales no they're a much higher percentage of the growth in the auto industry right so so the first reason is that major input to so many industries the second is typically if we're going to have a v-shaped recovery what will happen is productivity will search now productivity was already starting to search so again this idea forces in motion continue in motion I think the accelerated shift into new technologies now is going to cause an acceleration in productivity growth we're probably going to see productivity growth numbers in the next year that we haven't seen I'm gonna say since the 60s so that's that's another reason productivity is a huge force against inflation because why because a company which benefits from productivity can do three things with it it can increase wages so if they--if come if companies have labor shortages they will increase wages but not now nobody has labor shortage because the unemployment rate is going to go to 15% or whatever or higher it can go to lower prices to compete and bring consumers back and to compete against China because China is using innovation and deflation to compete so that's another thing that could happen here which would reinforce this disinflationary cycle or it can go to increase profit margins and it's probably going to depending on the industry going to go to all three so I don't think what's the inflation in the near term I do worry about it now that no one thinks it's possible anymore I remember starting at the business that was the late 70s I was in college and I remember looking at these CPI numbers that were coming out and economists didn't didn't believe them because they thought inflation had been licked then when really it had just started because we went off the gold exchange standard in 1971 but no one could believe the numbers we were seeing that's because they had been lulled into complacency that the Fed could do anything it wanted well I think that we're back in that situation but we will not face and I know where you're going with this obviously Bitcoin we won't face the real ramifications for another couple of years but you know I know we've increased our Bitcoin exposure we're in the discretionary portfolios at arc and I think I think it's the right thing to do from an insurance policy point of view yeah well we'll never get to get two big countries
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