저자: Henry · 외국인
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테슬라 10/10 로보택시 이벤트를 앞두고 콜옵션 거래량이 평소의 약 1.5배(일 평균 대비 +40만 계약)로 급증해 이례적 활동이 관찰된다고 주장. 중국 6년 1.99% 할부 금융 등 긍정 요인을 근거로 제시. 본인은 풋 셀링과 휠 전략 중심이며, 콜 스프레드는 소액 공격적 투자자용 옵션으로 제안. 내부정보 가능성은 단정하지 않음.
다듬은 글
The Tesla event on October 10th is just around the corner, and something very unusual is happening with Tesla options. There's a lot of money to be made, and in this video I'll explain to you the unusual call options I see on Tesla stock and how we can use them to make a lot of money before the event.
So, first of all, watch this clip. Welcome back to Fast Money. Tesla is showing some sparks of life, up nearly 10% this week and well ahead of, ahem, the rest of the MAG7 stocks. Stocks rose 21% in September, their best month since June last year. And the earnings will come ahead of third-quarter shipments figures due next Wednesday.
And the long-awaited announcement of the robo-taxi will take place in almost a week. Mike, I know it's in the Holly index, infamous or famous, however you look at it. You control one. What do you think about the stock movement here? Yes, she...Well, she runs one. I...I don't control one, but she controls one.
Yes. Well, sometimes I manage it, I guess. We had a few of these at the end of last year. We only have one now. Um, I mean, it's always one of the busiest options. This is, um, the second most active in terms of stake volume today after the perennial leader, at least Nvidia. But, of course, the share price in dollars is higher.
So the difference in the number of contracts between them is not as big as it might seem at first glance. Almost one and a half million call contracts were sold, compared to a million on average per day. And think about how big an increase that is, over 400,000 contracts compared to the average daily volume.
Amazon is in third place, with only about 440,000 call contracts sold. So, you know, when you see that kind of growth, it matters. I mean, options traders play mostly exclusively Tesla and Nvidia, it seems. Yes, many analysts are becoming more optimistic about supply figures. Um, Bush said today that they see an upside to the consensus figures, and that China will actually be a positive driver of demand.
There are favorable financing and leasing terms that can really help increase sales. This week, like all other China news , there were certainly improvements in China news, but it was Tesla in China that was making headway. They have this six-year financing at 1.99%, which is supposed to be supportive, and you know, the bears will say, "What if we don't have that?" Um, and I also saw a pretty clear divide between buyers and sellers on this issue.
Buyers are actually a bit pessimistic . Um, let's see where we go. And if you look at Rivian's chart, it's the inverse of Tesla's chart. So, Tesla is indeed moving in the direction of a Chinese robo- taxi. Everything was pushed aside. The number that is usually known is higher than the number of streets.
But if they exceed that number, people will still try to catch up. Remember, "blow it up" which means in a good sense growth, and remember it's true that GM canceled their robo-taxi plans, so realistically it's Whimo and Tesla, and if Tesla can keep up this momentum, we've been waiting for this long, if it's an exciting opening, then the stock could go higher, guys, they said 400,000 contracts above average for the day, that's a lot of volume, and there's a very high demand for calls on Tesla right now.
So, I'm going to open my screen and I want to show you the trades that I'm going to make this morning. Good. So, look, right now 400,000 contracts is way above average, which is crazy volume. And, essentially, options traders trade exclusively Tesla, and they are very bullish . And this is an unusual option activity.
I have been working at Tesla for a long time. Tesla, I put spreads. Let me open my position in Tesla right now. I'm on track to make my portfolio $4 million. I'm growing pretty quickly, and Tesla was a very interesting stock to trade. I have Iron Condors that are not yet endangered, but, you know, it's really interesting because selling put options and credit card spreads has been very profitable.
But my Iron Condor is in danger now. So I'm just being honest. I'm showing you my winnings, and it's not necessarily a loss, but I might consider actually closing this deal at a loss. Now look, I see potential for the consensus numbers to grow, guys. I also spoke to a few Tesla employees because I am a personal coach and basically I work with a lot of engineers, doctors, healthcare professionals, dentists, and I have a few people who work at Tesla.
So I heard a lot of very interesting information. You know, all of this is pretty much publicly available, but I think the engineering team at Tesla is top notch, and I see a lot of updates for Tesla. So , there is a lot of bullish momentum. If we look at the three-month chart, the stock is up 30%, and in the last month alone, these stocks are up over 25%.
So now I would turn to Tesla Trade Options. And, um, I don't usually recommend doing that on this channel, but I , I'm actually going to say that, um, if you have a higher risk profile and you don't mind buying options, that means you could lose your investment, I'm saying that very bluntly. I prefer selling options.
I myself am seeking a secure, passive, steady income for retirement. That's the stage I'm at now. I'm young, but, you know, I'm retired. And these are the type of people I work with. I work with people who have, you know, $50k on the low end, maybe $30k on the very low end and are up into a few six figures, and I work on scaling portfolios into seven figures.
This is mostly due to selling options. Selling options is much more profitable and cost-effective. When I worked at Goldman Sachs, I did research. I've seen all the research. I've seen dozens and dozens of studies. Options are usually overpriced. Too many people buy them, not enough people sell them, and you get compensated, essentially, for selling options.
So I prefer this. But with Tesla, I think the risk-reward ratio here is very reasonable. If you are a more aggressive, um, investor and have a higher risk appetite, I would consider a few different expiration dates here. Specifically, October 11th would be the shortest expiration date we record in this event, right?
The event is essentially a robo-taxis... we'll get a lot of data on that. Third quarter deliveries, we have a lot of things coming in from China, financing for Tesla. Tesla has a lot of strengths right now, has a lot of strengths, and it's a cyclical stock that fluctuates up and down depending on investor emotions, right?
So when, um, the crowd says, "Hey, let's run to the mountains," people sell off Tesla stock , and the stock doesn't do very well. Now many traders are saying, "We need call options." There is huge demand, which means there are many optimistic investors. So if you want really short-term, top-tier deals, I would suggest three different deals for you.
OK? I'll give you a high risk level, a medium risk level, and buying options doesn't really have a low risk level, but I'll give you a lower risk level. OK? So, let's look at this issue now. On October 11th, you can simply choose a call option that is slightly out of the money. 265 will be fine . You could buy 265 shares and you would essentially need Tesla stock to explode, which, to be honest, looks pretty likely right now, right?
So I would say that you should invest no more than 3% of your portfolio in this position. If you have a smaller portfolio , this is a good risk because with a small portfolio you need to be more aggressive. There's nothing wrong with being slow. You probably want more aggressive returns if you have a small portfolio.
If you have a large portfolio, just allocate a very small amount from it. Um, I think it's a smart move, but for a really large portfolio, no more than 1% should go to buying call options on a single stock, like Tesla. Okay, that would be the first step, which would be , you know, pretty aggressive.
The next step—I would actually record the event that will take place on October 10th. Um, and also give yourself a little extra time, because when an event happens, usually the reaction is quick, but then there are consequences, okay? We see this all the time, and I studied it in college textbooks. When I was studying finance, usually, uh, a good event happens, we get a big spike, and then you get a little continuation of momentum, and it might take one week, two weeks, 3 weeks, okay?
I am not a genie; I can't predict what will actually happen, but it's usually one to three weeks. So, with that in mind, you should choose an expiration in November. Good. So, looking here, you can buy a call option. And if you want medium risk, I would have a little more exposure in Tesla, a little higher delta .
You can choose this, a call option at 260. That would be a little in the money. You need Tesla to grow strongly so that you actually break even. You need Tesla to rise to $286 per share. Actually, that's why I don't really like buying call options, because you need a fairly large movement in a fairly short period of time.
But then again , I think the unusual activity around options right now supports that kind of risk, right? Because it's a risk that if Tesla raises the price to $300 per share , you could make a profit of significantly more than 50%. I understand this calculation because you take 300, minus the strike price of 260, that's $40, and the strike price of that option is 26.
So you can turn $26 into $40 if Tesla raises the price to $300 per share on November 15th. This will be an increase of more than 10-15%. So again, this is still a high-risk action. But again , for call option buyers, if I was going to recommend something that I didn't really recommend buying a lot of call options throughout 2024, it would probably be this.
Okay, let me give you a third option, safe trading, which I would personally prefer. These first two deals that I have told you about so far would be categorized as options gamblers. Now I want to tell you about the safer category of buying options, which , as I've mentioned many times and I'm explaining to you very clearly, is very profitable because you can double your money, triple it.
This is also very dangerous. So please be careful. Good. I would significantly reduce my risk and buy a call option at 265, then sell the call option to make it much easier to break even, and also reduce the value of the option overall. So , this would be a small account trade that would be suitable not only for small accounts but also for large accounts that don't want to have that much risk and exposure, which I would highly recommend.
So, at a price of 265, you sell a call option, buy a call option, sorry. The delta here is 0.53, right? This is a very high delta. And then you subsidize the cost of the call option that you buy by selling it at 275. This is called a debit call spread, or I prefer to call it a bull call spread , okay?
So, this is a bullish call spread. Given the huge volume of trading currently taking place on Tesla, there is high liquidity; This means that liquidity is good for exercising your option and not losing as much money due to slippage costs . Slippage cost is essentially the difference between the buy and sell price.
So, you will save money on the cost of slipping . Okay, you'll get good volume, good execution. And, in essence, by buying a 265 call option and selling a 275 call option, you can see that you're not actually investing that much capital. You only invest about $400. And now, by investing that $400, you are actually making a potential profit of $1,000.
So, you can turn $400 into $1,000 , which is 2.5 times the income. I really like this deal because I personally don't think Tesla can reach $300 per share. It's possible, but the chances are obviously pretty low, right? But on a bullish call spread, isn't it crazy how you can get more income than just buying a call option?
You get more profit on a bullish call spread with less capital, okay? Buying at 265, selling at 275. Tesla doesn't have to raise the price to 300 to get a 50% return. Tesla needs to go up to 275 to get a 250% return, right? Or 2.5 times, whatever that percentage of return is. Do you understand what I'm trying to say?
You can increase your money by 2.5 times if Tesla shares rise by about 5%. Basically, it's a little more than 5%, 5.5% , if I'm doing the math in my head correctly. So, that's a fantastic return, given the unusual activity in options. I think that, um, there is a question of whether people are trading based on inside information.
I'm not going to make assumptions. I don't know. I don't have insider information. I keep everything clean, pay taxes, etc. But is there activity from insiders who actually have inside information and activity that they're profiting from, or is it speculation, or is it just retail investors who want to make an annual bet on the possibility of...
Hmm, whatever the reason for this increased unusual options activity, I would say it's smart to look at it and consider it, because it's unusual, meaning there could be something fishy going on, which could be a very good thing, right in this case, right? Suspicious activity doesn't necessarily have to be bad.
Suspicious activity can sometimes be good. It's like if your fiancé wants to propose to you or something, you're a man, you want to propose to a woman, and she keeps hinting that she wants to...I don't know. Do you understand what I mean? There may be suspicious activity in the offer . You see things like this on social media.
So anyway, that's the strategy I'll be looking at specifically. I'm just going to put a small amount of money in to work a debit call spread or a bullish call spread with a small amount of capital to, you know, make a deal for, you know, small traders looking for more aggressive growth. So if you want more aggressive growth, I think that's a really smart strategy.
Otherwise, I would stick to my usual strategy of selling put options and covered calls. Let me also show you what it looks like. Um, because personally , even though there's unusual option activity on the call side and we could probably get a rise in the stock, it's still very viable for you to just sell the put options and get in, which is my usual strategy.
So, my bread and butter, or the three best strategies that I have are: selling calls (a covered call, specifically, you need to own your stock), selling puts ( which is my best strategy for generating retirement income), and then the wheel strategy, which is a combination of those two things, which is essentially just selling options for income.
And I've been using the wheel strategy for almost ten years, right? Ever since I learned about this strategy, ever since I developed this strategy myself, I have been contributing to its development. I didn't invent the wheel strategy. She's not mine, guys. And it has been proven to make money over decades and decades of research and people trading for a living, of course, but I have contributed to the strategy in my own way, looking at specific deltas to trade with specific processes on how to implement that strategy.
So my implementation is unparalleled . I've been doing this for ten years, but I've been trading the wheel strategy for about seven years. So anyway, that's what I do in my individual coaching. I want to implement the right strikes. Hmm , let me just show you an example right now. I'll show you real quick, okay?
I want this video to be fairly short. So , sell the put option. Uh, look, I would sell a put option on October 11th. This is a very low risk. Now, I did my research on technical analysis and fundamental indicators before filming this video. Uh, as for me, I think Tesla has very, very good strong support around 235-240.
Uh, so just for extra safety, because the increased volatility is increased at 85, damn it. This is madness. 85%, guys, that's a lot. I would just play it safe. I would choose an option with a delta of 23. I usually sell put options around 30, but here 23 makes a lot of sense to me . I want to reduce the risk a little.
The bid/ask price is very good at $5.95 and the buy price is $610. Good. Applied volatility is removed from the chart. Off schedule. So, now is the time to generate income. Good. This right here shows if you were to sell the option in 12 days, that's about a 2% , actually, sorry, that's about a 2 1/2% return, safe and passive, open a position, just hold it until expiration on October 11th.
In the worst case scenario, you will be appointed. And if the price doesn't go up to 235, great, you just got paid. But you will be paid anyway . You get paid whether you get appointed or not. If the price remains above 235, you will obviously not be assigned. If it rises to 235 or below, you will be appointed on October 11th after the expiration date.
If you don't want to be appointed, obviously you're just closing the deal. Um, which I personally don't recommend. If you sell put options, you need cash to buy the shares. And, um, yes, I prefer this method. So I would sell it right here. When the market opens, I will sell put options myself, m, with a large amount of my capital, because I am very confident in this type of trade.
In this type of trading, I can really put my money where I want and really open a lot of stocks. I really don't mind investing in Tesla because I think the innovation, the brand is very strong. Leadership is strong. A lot of good things are happening right now. We see a lot of information from China, which gives you favorable loans and subsidies, things like that, that really help the consumer buy more of these cars.
So yes, I would consider selling 235 put options on October 11th. Now, if you really want to have that secure passive income, you can safely continue, and let me show you another deal. You can honestly just buy January. Just super simple, right ? I like simplicity. I want an easy way to earn a stable and reliable income.
I don't want anything crazy or complicated. So, um, I want to make money without worrying about it. So I would go. Um, you can see that it expires on January 17th. You can lower it a little . You can go down to about 220. You can see that the delta here is still 23 deltas. Implied volatility has decreased because we have a short-term spike in volatility due to an event.
So you can see how volatility actually went down in early January. But the return here is very, very good. I mean, that's more than a 5-6% return. In fact, it could be even closer to a 7% return. And you need to raise a decent amount of capital, but honestly, it takes money to make money. Obviously, this is very logical and understandable.
You will not lose the $20,000 I am showing you on the screen. This is only the maximum loss if Tesla stock falls to zero, which won't happen. So, anyway, this is a really good deal, and it's, um, yeah, it's a very high- yield deal. So, I would go over some of what I told you in this video and let me know in the comments below what you would do.
And, as always, I thank you for watching the video. Please subscribe and I'll see you in the next one.
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