저자: JosephMoore,영상진행자Henry · 외국인
요약 보기
Morgan Stanley의 Joseph Moore는 엔비디아 실적 호조(예상치 대비 20억달러 상회)와 강한 수요를 근거로 최선호주로 꼽고, 12개월 목표가 150달러를 제시. 차세대 Blackwell의 매출총이익률은 약 1%p 낮아질 수 있으나 영업이익률 대비 영향은 작다고 봄. 진행자 Henry는 옵션 매도(풋 매도, 커버드콜, 휠 전략)로 주가 120달러 부근에서 수익을 내는 전략을 소개하고, 엔비디아 0달러 가능성은 없다고 주장.
다듬은 글
Morgan Stanley analyst just covered Nvidia and he said the unthinkable so I want to go over this clip with you guys and tell you why this is so important joining us right now for more on the company in the sector is Joseph Moore Morgan Stanley's senior semiconductor analyst and uh let me just ask you Joseph what happened this week what what's pushing the momentum One Direction or the other on the stock yeah I think for me the bigger surprise was what happened in the prior couple of weeks you know the quarter was really good uh they beat by $2 billion which has never happened until Nvidia started doing it a year and a half ago and I understand they're wrestling with these expectations issues um you know and there's some gross margin questions that came about but I was really surprised at the selloff this is our top pick demand is very very strong and you know at this point focusing on this sort of product cycles and things like that it's very important we want to see the company execute to that but really the key issue is just the strength of the business and we heard that from Jensen this week at a conference we've heard that from a number now of significant Executives on the customer side how much they're committed to these workloads uh so I think this is still um you know a very compelling story and again to me I I was a little I don't know exactly why it was up this week I don't know why it was down so much last week but the stock is very reasonably valued uh with very good growth prospects here going forward Will Blackwell have lower gross M margins versus Hopper I think maybe a tiny bit uh I think that when the product was launched in March they had sort of discussed some price points um you know on CNBC at one point and that's a little bit unusual I think they're very focused on can we continue to provide value can we continue to grow the market and I think they're probably more focused on that than the specifics of gross margin there's going to be a little bit of pressure here in the next couple of quarters which is really just the early stage of that we're ramping it up there's going to be low yields initially um I think they've sort of said over the full life cycle the grow margins will be similar but they're also expanding the scope of products there's going to be a microprocessor with Grace uh there's going to be an nvlink switch that they sell into these racks there's a lot of things that they're selling that could have a little bit lower gross margin so we have gross margins down by about a point next year uh I don't think it's that big a deal in the context of How High the operating margins are and how much operating leverage there is but I think it is the answer to question is yes it is just a pad lower um but you know that doesn't change the fact that the gross margins are still very good so the stocks just under 120 you've got a $150 price Target on it what's the time frame for that cuz that's another 25% increase even if you think that they could have a a little bit of a rougher time over the next few quarters yeah look it's a 12- month price Target and guys 12month price target for 150 and there was a lot of talk actually about margin so where nvidia's business is and the story of their business I want to point out that I think Nvidia 150 is very reasonable that's actually what I like um about this video right here from Joseph Moore is he's being very realistic and I'm a big fan of selling options and creating consistent passive income and given Nvidia is slightly under 120 and I think it's going to be around 120 for some time this makes it the perfect environment for selling both puts and covered calls on Nvidia which is my bread and butter strategy this is the strategy I've been running for 7even years now so here's the trades that I would make on Nvidia before I finish off with the clip is that I would simply go to trade Nvidia options by the way let me just point out what I already have on Nvidia just to update you guys I have sold put options on Nvidia because I'm looking to acquire shares for cheaper than the current price of Nvidia right so whatever you know Nvidia is at right now 120 if it was 115 it was 110 what I'm personally going to do is I'm going to sell about 30 Delta put options and look for an optimal entry or a cheaper entry than the current price of Nvidia so I'm going to make a little bit longer of a trade here because the price Target is 12 months so there is nothing wrong with just going for a 12 Monon option okay so let's go out and pick September 19 2025 this is very interesting because guys you don't have to trade weekly and monthly to make good income you can just go for an option that expires quarterly or even yearly so this is a little bit of a weird case but I'm going to show you a very interesting twist here a very interesting Twist of how to actually collect income by making one trade per year and collecting a uh a good amount so look because Nvidia is likely to rise from the current price up towards 150 due to what this analyst thinks which I agree with I would probably give Nvidia if I had a guess I would probably say 170 180 in 12 months but let's just say 150 to be more conservative the funny thing is by selling put options these would all work because technically if it goes up you can sell a 118 however I want to give you guys a very interesting perspective to collect a bunch of cash today like literally cash in your account today this would be taxable so this would be the downside it's it's taxable income but I would literally go up and sell a put option for 140 for example just to be conservative here and you can see how I'm essentially going to collect 3.5k of income and I'm going to risk roughly $10,000 now when I say risk this would be a Max loss only if Nvidia went to zero I'm an Nvidia the chances of going down to zero are in my opinion zero they're not going to go to zero okay so by selling a put option I'm saying I'm ready to buy 100 shares and uh that's exactly what I'm going to be doing here so in this example if I go for 140 sellp put I'm going to make 3500 on 10K which is a 35% return in 12 months 35% 12 months going to double and triple the market by selling a safe put I'm I'm saying quotation safe because if Nvidia goes down you're essentially owning 100 shares this is a way to basically get assigned 100 shares so you are putting up the capital you can see the break even here is 104 so it's cheaper than the current stock price of Nvidia because 140 minus the 35 that you're collecting is 105 how would you like to buy Nvidia for $105 per share you know I think that they have a very strong 12- Monon window ahead of us you know the new products that they're shipping Blackwell are effectively U you know accounted for through 2025 so you know the question becomes kind of growth there after and that's when that's the debate it gets a little bit harder for the stock to work for me I like the stock best when there are these near-term issues that they're kind of working through because I have a lot of faith in just how strong this business is and so you know you've seen this a couple of times now over the last year and a half you saw lead times come down in the early part of this year the people sold the stock on that when there was concerned that Blackwell was almost too good and we'd have this kind of uh pause in in Hopper sales that Drew down the stock then we had the delay all those things sort of are great setups because you know you're selling picks and shovels into a gold rush and the strength of the Gold Rush is kind of the main thing here uh it doesn't you know the new products are really important and I want to get them out but you know it doesn't really change how good these numbers are so for me tactically we've liked it better when you have these issues you still have these questions overhanging the stock so I'm not necessarily calling for 150 right away but you know I think these are a good buying opportunity these issues that have been dragging on the stock of late guys craziest thing he said which is the absolute truth is selling picks and shovels wins in a gold rush it's not actually the person digging for gold that wins it's the people selling the pigs and shovels same thing with Levi jeans they grew their business to a huge business by selling jeans to workers because there's so many work okay so same thing with Nvidia they're not necessarily making all the plays themselves they're providing the opportunity and the chips for all the other AI companies to make the place right their chips are in such high demand that nvidia's revenue is going to keep rising at astonishingly fast rates so I would say don't miss out on Nvidia sell put options do covered calls and run the wheel strategy I have a lot of videos on this channel so make sure that you watch some more videos on my Channel about creating income from highquality companies by selling options
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