저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
SPY/QQQ 옵션 시장이 내일 큰 변동을 가격에 반영 중이며, VIX 기준 내일 상승일 확률 85%라고 주장. 내재변동성 28%(SPY)·40%(QQQ) 기준 일일 예상 변동 범위를 제시. SPY 30분봉 RSI 상승 다이버전스로 2시간봉 반등 가능성을 언급하나, QQQ는 다이버전스가 없어 더 많은 하락 시간이 필요하다고 봄. 실적 발표가 핵심 변수라고 강조. 강의 홍보 포함.
다듬은 글
Welcome, welcome, and thank you for clicking on today's video. Today, we had those daily expected moves come into play, and we were talking about some critical things in this area that we're going to go over in today's video. And boy oh boy, do we have some crazy stuff going on for tomorrow because you guys are going to be very surprised once I update these daily expected moves.
But you're also surprised to hear that VIX is still calling an 85% chance for an upday in the market tomorrow. So, let's pay attention because we're going to show you something pretty crazy at the beginning of this video. And that means I have to update these daily expected moves real quick. But let's get into it right now.
And as you can see, as I update those moves, we just have the options market is pricing in something monstrous tomorrow. Now, we're going to go over the signals in this, but let's just go over this briefly for a moment and say if that 2hour curls up, is it very close to the center line? It still is.
And we're going to go into that 30inut chart, but wow, look at the move for tomorrow. I'm going to tell you guys the implied volatility as of right now going into tomorrow is 28%. And this is when I like to calculate those ranges right at this time. It's worked very well. But for the Q's, it's like 40% for a daily expected.
That is crazy. And then when you match that with the VIX saying there's an 85% chance for an upday. I don't know if I'd put all my eggs in that basket, but it's some fun percentages to mess around with. And if we see some critical signals in here, we can pay attention. But if the 2hour is able to curl up here, it means test the high and go potentially do what?
Make a new one. That means we might be heading towards that 700. But are we going to be able to shake off the bearishness? Is this going to be able to curl up at all? Well, we were talking about the 30-inut chart. Remember, we were talking about rejecting below the 5day is where you could be very cautious, right?
That's where the big volatility can come in. Uh but you want to watch out for any kind of divergence. And what do you see down here? Well, weirdly enough, on your MACD, you kind of you didn't really make that divergence, right? You don't see that divergence on the MACD, but when you really look at this RSI, look how significant that 30 minute divergence is coming in.
So, going into tomorrow, these signals are suggesting that you have that what we obviously we talked about in the live video, kind of a tester in case I can go live on Friday. But this would say that you have a bullish contrarian signal that says, hey, this is not going to go into negative territory anymore.
We're going to shoot into positive aka this 30 minute is saying that we are highly probable to turn up the 2-hour chart. Mix that with some 85% stuff from volatility. Uh-oh, we might be heading to the upside, but is earnings and things like that. Are those going to ruin it? That's the big deal. So, cuz we do still have that downside move.
So, if the 30-minute table down here, would be two great targets to watch. 67613 to the downside and to the upside we have 69625. Now the one thing about this huge move here is this. If if the market makers really wanted to uh you know hurt everyone theta burn everyone all they have to do is pingpong the market and have it sit right in this area pretty much all day and then no one would be able to make money because everyone's expecting a big move.
Yeah, usually we do get that big move, but if we don't, you can get a theta burn kind of day. So, as of right now, the signals are suggesting that the 30-minut did confirm that divergence on the RSI. The 30-inut is telling you that the 2hour has a good probability to curl up. Still got to actually see that come.
So, if I did take any kind of trade in this area with that confirmation, I would want to make sure to watch for any rolling before this 2hour is able to curl up. right now. That suggests that the moves right now with the signals that are confirmed at this moment, the 30 minute is suggesting that we can head to the upside in the next couple of trading sessions.
But are we seeing a similar thing from the cues? Do we maybe have more time to spend down here? Can we make a triple divergence? Anything like that? Well, let's get you some daily expected moves first. Already coming into the weekly expected move. So, as you get to this level, adding short positions is difficult on a weekly basis.
I will say that. Now, if you look at the 2-hour for the Q's, you're well, you're pretty far out of range. So, you really have to watch the cues for any kind of 2hour roll in this area. So, it's going to be very critical with that. But, we have some daily expected moves for you. 61832 to the upside. We have 69318 to the downside.
Very, very nice. Uh, do we see anything from the 30 minutes suggesting that this 2-hour can curl up? Once again, noting the positioning of the MACD is suggesting if that 2hour does curl up, you have to get through this area right here. You have to definitively take back that 5day, probably see a little 30-minute retest off it and head to the upside because this is risky.
You The other thing is you could make a two-hour divergence down here and I think that's going to take too much time. The 30 minute here is extremely deep. So, um the only thing that can really save this right now are probably some earnings. If the earnings can take it back, if you can see that rapid buying at some point where the buyers come in strong here, you can see those bull pullbacks and stuff like that.
But you will need a divergence. You will need a higher low to say that the 2hour is going to see a good move here. That would be critical because the 2-hour is so far away from that center line. So, as of right now, the 30 minute does not have divergence. the 30 minute does not have any kind of um higher low for the Q.
So that's going to be risky. And if you look down here, you don't even really have a flat anything down here on the RSI. So this means that the Q's, even though the spy is spicing some things up, telling you, hey, we got a chance for a big reaction to the upside, the Q's are not agreeing with that. They are saying we need to spend more time down in this area.
Now, this is a signal that we were watching, right? We were talking about this during the little live show today. We might do another one on Friday. We were talking about the potential to make a divergence here and we even said be patient. They like to leak these things out till the end of the day. Now, we did see a really strong move here that actually was able to close the bars up here causing this to extend.
So, as this still has some room here, you want to watch for any kind of third curl up, anything like this, because that's when you want to be risk off again, right? That would be a risky moment. You want to see a lower high again maybe or a divergence. But you do have that form of divergence now. So spy and volatility are both saying with this kind of flat divergence here from uh volatility, right?
Kind of a bunch of wonky wonky divergences here for volatility says the 2-hour can curl down here. This is suggesting that we can start to squeeze in the next couple of trading sessions. So this will be very interesting. But the most interesting thing about volatility is yes, the 30inut signals, but also the fact that tomorrow we will have still that 85% chance for an upday.
And I think when you mix that with the fact that implied volatility is so high, things get really, really risky of seeing some kind of turnaround when everyone was thinking stock market crash. So we see some post market going to the upside, but what's the important thing to keep in mind for this video?
It's still the same thing as yesterday. If the 2-hour for the spy is able to curl up, it is suggesting we're going to test that high, go make a new one. Yes, we will pay attention to rolling at those good sellers. But right now, the 30-inut is suggesting with the divergence on the RSI very significant that we can turn up that 2-hour chart and we can take back this 5day moving average.
So, we'll continue to monitor this throughout the week, but as of right now, you do have somewhat of a signal. Even though the cues are saying we need to spend a little bit more time down here, it is shaping up that the spy and volatility is suggesting that an upward move for the 2-hour is coming and we will look for failure and hopefully I can post that to Patreon if I do have time and I do see it.
Thank you guys so much for watching this video. Really appreciate it. The link to get that course is down in the description. We're leaving it up this week so we can do a little question thing question session about it on Friday if you'd like to join us for a live video. But other than that, I really do hope you have a good night and I hope you spend it with family or spend it doing something nice for yourself and not staring at charts all night long. Have a good one, guys. Peace out.
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