저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
주간·월간 기대변동폭(expected move) 상단·하단을 의사결정 구간으로 제시하며, 이번 주 상단 근처에서 숏 진입보다 익절 구간으로 보라고 함. 현재 SPY/QQQ 구조는 하락 전 상승 다이버전스 또는 Higher Low 형성 여부를 확인 중이며, 일부 소량 SPY 스타터 포지션을 잡았다고 함. 시장 붕괴 가능성은 낮고 2026년 1분기 조정 정도가 최선의 하락 시나리오로 언급됨. 나스닥100(US100)은 4시간 봉 상승 다이버전스로 상방 시도 가능성 언급. 변동성(VIX)은 아직 스파이크가 나오지 않았고 추가 파동 가능성 존재. 구체적 개별 종목 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
A big point that we like to make on this channel about these weekly and monthly expected moves is when you get to one with still some time left before these moves actually change before you get to that expiring date. And as we went into yesterday, I'm very glad that we reminded everyone of that yesterday as we did see a tag of the monthly or the weekly expected move this week on a Wednesday.
This is where we always like to say this is a decision-making area as far as taking profits and things like that. Am I going to hold on to things? Am I going to sell everything? But definitely not one place where I like to do what? This is not an area where I like to start, especially start those put positions, those short positions in some way because around these areas that is the bottom side of your 68% zone, meaning you are very likely to bounce from that area and that's what we overall are suggesting.
So, now we have to go into tomorrow. And I left today's daily expected moves. They are working very, very well this week. The daily expected moves for today were massive, but we have a big surprise coming for you in just a moment. So, let's get you guys some updated daily expected moves. And just so you know, Patreon members, you will have those daily expected moves for all the stocks that we cover on the right side of your screen over here in just a little bit later tonight.
So, let's get into it. Now daily chart guys, we are discussing how this has created somewhat of a potential double top. The only problem with this is the price action has taken back actually both of these levels. If you go into the shorter time frames, so we'll have to update those daily expected moves in a second because I wanted you to just see how big these absolutely are for what went on today.
We got the gap up. This is why we were suggesting not taking or making those huge decisions down here as far as betting on a stock market crash when a stock market crash is very very unlikely. The best you will get in 2026 is most likely a correction in the first quarter. And that's all I have to say about that.
But I wanted you to just visually see these. And now I'm going to update them real quick. So there are a couple things going on on the chart in front of you that we need to discuss. First thing that we probably need to discuss is the fact that when I update those daily expected moves, wow, they have really shrunk up.
This is going into opex. We see little to no implied volatility for the spy. Kind of fishy with the QQQ's over there being double what the implied volatility is for the spy. We're going to go over the Q's in a moment, but 67975 to the upside, 67319 to the downside. Something that we were discussing heavily is the fact that we were able to do what on this 30inut chart.
Patreon members, you should have gotten a video. Hopefully, you have those notifications on because we are discussing how the price action has now fully opened the door, beating this level with this move right here. We are seeing the door open now for new highs and higher lows. So, we will be paying attention.
But today's video is mainly to remind you that what I am looking for in this area is a fake out. I do. I think everyone is looking for a stock market crash and all I'm paying attention to is a potential right shoulder that could have been. And the big thing here is if this fails, then that's perfectly fine.
I just keep going with the roles. I look for the two-hour roll later. But as we are starting to create the structure that we've been planning out all week long, we lit, you can go back to last weekend's video. We were planning this out. We were discussing the weekly expected moves and how we like to function at the end of the year.
If this curls down, we can make that divergence point. we could come take care of this gap, sweep that low completely, get rid of the stops in this area, and you will have an event tomorrow that could do that. If you see some volatility early on in the day, you will in the morning get existing home sales.
I don't know how much we're going to really put some weight into this, but they can use any any any piece of data to just tell you that's why the market went down. So, 9:00 a.m. my time, that will be for anyone's time out there, that will be 30 minutes after the open. So, what were we discussing all week long?
What have we been discussing since the weekend? We were discussing a divergence or higher low in this area. Right now, you could be done and have your higher low. We'll talk about that in a moment. If this rolls, there is still risk that you will not create a divergence. So, you want to be cautious with this downward move, right?
You want to be cautious if you see confirmations down because you do have some big confirmations, right? I'm not someone who's just ignorant and going to not pay attention to the bare side. The bare side is you cross down like this tomorrow, you do not see a higher low. You do not see a divergence, but instead this MACD just flushes through the floor.
You will most likely need to see some kind of little bait and switch trap in this area in order for the bears to clamp back down on things. The more probable thing at this point is you are carving out the structure for some kind of higher low right now or you are going to see some slight volatility in the morning to create some kind of divergence.
and then we'll see if you're able to do either of those. But if you see a divergence or a higher low, you are taking back the uh fiveday moving average at this point. You are curling up the two-hour chart with a good confirmation. You should know by now, especially if you've taken that full technical analysis course that is on sale, that this is not the best confirmation.
This is first of all the 2-hour at the end of the day. This is a negative bar. Even though it is above the nine on the 2hour and you do have a confirmation on your MACD and that RSI is confirmed, this is not necessarily the best confirming bar as of right now. So to help out with what's going on in the near price action, you can kind of see how we are creating somewhat of a triangle.
If we break to the downside, we are most likely going to fill that gap. Take out those stops. You're going to see everyone shouting stock market crash just like they were right over here. And I'd be paying attention because if the market doesn't crash, you can make a lot of money by seeing this thing curl up and being one of the first people to do what?
To react. Because on this channel, we do not guess. We do not do those type of things. We do make very very highly probable predictions based on and predictions I mean ways that this could overall move. And then we say if that shapes up that is an opportunity and we will be trading like water is overall what we do on this channel.
Let's go check out the QES because they have a little bit of a difference. But for here, you're looking for that higher low. You're looking for a divergence. If you don't see that, well, then you might be having more downside. And just like that, we have something drawn up on the Q's actually. So, we have this drawn up on the cues.
And this is something we've had drawn up for a little bit. We've mentioned it multiple multiple times. We actually mentioned it as we're going up, right? As I get out of my positions and everyone starts to pile in thinking we're going up up up and away to here. I say, "Okay, now I'm going to start to be patient.
I'm going to be patient. I'm going to be patient. and be patient because I think we're going to make the right shoulder that could have been. We end up making the right shoulder that could have been right now. Everyone says that we are going to crash down and you are at risk of that. If the Q's are able, this is your bearish case here.
If the Q's are able to see a little bit more, I would say kind of come up to these type of areas and fail. Roll the 2hour while you're in negative territory. That can be a problem. But you still have to watch out for divergences and things like that. The sad part about markets for people who really want crashes all the time is they most the time do not crash.
Mo which direction do they normally go? They normally go in the upward direction. So you always want to be paying attention to anything bullish that you see. So I'm going to take a blip here for a moment because I'm going to show you guys something with the cues. I'm going to show you guys the US 100 which is pretty much the cues over here.
But looking at the two-hour chart, you can see that this, by the way, the two-hour chart here, we showed this off on Patreon to show you guys some of this stuff, but the two-hour chart here, I act like it's a 30 minute pretty much. So, this is pretty much a 30-minut chart. You see that 30 minute or twohour divergence for the higher the uh extended hours pretty much.
I use two hours as a 30 minute and the 4 hour is actually going to be my 2-hour. So, not only did you have 30-minute divergence, you have 4hour divergence that confirmed here today with a solid confirmation, by the way. So you have a solid confirmation. What does that tell us about the US 100? At least from this chart right here.
[snorts] Well, one, we haven't beat that high. That's kind of a problem. But the divergence here is saying that the US 100 is going to make an attempt. An attempt to curl up the daily MACD by that center line. Meaning it is going to look like we're doing what? We have a lower high, but if this creates a higher low, then we're going right back to the upside.
Pay attention to bullish things all the time in these markets. Whether you like it or not, the government, the rich, the everything, literally everything is built to make the market only go up. We even have fraudulent revenues for that and fraudulent data for that as well. So, if you don't like this kind of game, then get to investing.
We can talk about that another time, but this is something you need to be paying attention to. The 4hour divergence here, very, very nice. Thank you to my Patreon members. We will go back over to the cues though and talk about some critical levels and talk about some things going on here. So we do have 61487 to the upside.
The fishy thing uh 61487 to the upside. We have 60335 to the downside. The fishy thing here for the Q's is the fact that one they didn't take out the level that you really needed to take out to get price action on your side. Uh the other thing that's fishy for the Q's is why do they have such a bigger implied volatility than the spy?
The other thing I would say about the Q's that is slightly fishy is they have not tagged their weekly expected move. So if we wanted to tomorrow the Q's as they did not beat the high maybe they come down and they tag this low while the actual SPI sets up SPY not SPI SPY sets up a higher low and we actually created a virgin point with the Q's.
I think that would be very very interesting. But the big thing here is you could be done. Like you genuinely could be done. I think I'm still going to watch for this right. I told Patreon members that I am overall doing what? Being very patient. I'm being patient because I like to get the best position possible.
But I ended up pulling a slight trigger. I ended up st taking a small starter position for the spy at the end of the day just in case we're able to see something a little bit crazy on OPX. But I am ready to actually create a more serious position if we see some kind of divergence, if we dip down to lower prices to create the higher low.
So I've already taken my stab at it. That's not a big position. I'm ready to make it a bigger position if we see a little bit better prices. But as of right now, this is not the structure that you would see for a further breakdown. Not [snorts] a lot of big crashes uh stop and gap up by 1%. Not that does not happen a lot of the time.
And let's go over volatility. Volatility is now on the 30-minut in negative territory. This means we are very likely to see lower highs and things like that. If we need to see more volatility, we will see this 2-hour chart curl up. Once again, the volatility has been pretty lackluster. I'm not exactly happy with how this played out during VIX.
I actually am happy with the structure and how it played out in the spy, but I would like to see that spike in volatility up at these levels. We haven't seen that yet. There's always a risk that we could still see that, so I want to keep that on your radar. Uh but volatility here, the thing that's confusing for volatility is it keeps uh it keeps it's holding up, right?
So this is able to hold up as of right now. It is still making those, you know, we had lower highs into a new high that beat both. So then you have a higher low. This means you should be able to uh at least be aware, you should be very aware of at least one more wave of volatility. So if one more wave of volatility comes and that's bigger than expected, then it may continue.
If we just see one more wave and then we subside, then I think you're likely to see a lot of the things that we're talking about in this video. And a lot of the things we're talking about in this video are what? A higher low or a divergence point for the spy or the QQQ's. I think for the QQQs, I'm more so leaning towards the divergence for the SPY.
I could see us just dragging out to that lower side. But for now, the important thing about this market is this is something you can learn from. Something you can learn from this channel right now, even if you're new, is these weekly expected moves and the monthly expected moves. When you see us make a dramatic move down to the weekly expected move, and it's not like Friday afternoon, well, then you want to be watching out because everyone's going to tell you stock market crash, go look at everyone's Wednesday night videos and all of them will most likely have something super duper bearish in them.
Meanwhile, we're saying, "Hey, the thing that I definitely don't do at this point is step on the gas for put, step on the gas for shorting the market." No, this is a take-profit area. This is a decision-making area. And I think that's the big learning point uh for this week. And we'll see what happens with this as we get it to fully prove itself.
Maybe I will be correct in putting out that thumbnail yesterday saying we are very likely to be done with this trap on Friday. So, thank you guys so much for watching. I really do appreciate it. There is some learning material down there still on sale for Christmas. Still on sale while we have some seeds left if you want to go check it out.
And Patreon members, be looking out for weekend and be looking out for a little video on Saturday for me. We will be putting out a Saturday video to talk about what could happen during Christmas week. All right, peace out, guys. Have a good one.
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