저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
SPY·QQQ의 단기 기술적 분석 영상. 일일 예상 변동 범위(SPY 약 65,736~67,398, QQQ 약 59,341~61,391 표기)를 제시하고, 30분·2시간봉의 MACD·RSI 다이버전스가 확인되면 반등 가능성을 언급. 변동성(VIX) 상승 시 다음 두 거래일 내 상승 확률 85%라는 통계를 제시하며, 아직 신호가 확정되지 않았다고 강조. 연말 리스크 관리와 기술적 분석 강의 홍보로 마무리.
다듬은 글
Good afternoon, guys, and thank you so much for clicking on my video. Welcome to the channel, especially if you're new here. We're going to talk about a few things today that we overall discussed over the weekend, but we're going to see if those things were able to form. And we're just going to have to jump right into it.
So, let's just get started because I'm on a bit of a time crunch. Let's go back and actually start where we're supposed to start. The Q's have a very good point here that I'm going to make in a second. It is telling you something to pay attention to tomorrow. But for the spy, let's get you guys some daily expected moves.
We see here 67398 to the upside. For the spy we have 65736 to the downside. And the cool thing about these ranges is you can tell you can tell when things are starting to open up when volatility is really starting to come back in and you're about to see some snapback kind of moves. Well, it's when these things are spreading out.
And that's what you got. You got a big 68% zone going into tomorrow. Now, we want to see if this 2hour is going to confirm up. And if you recall why, it's because the cues overall were suggesting we don't have a top just yet. At least we don't have the what you would want to say highly probable signals, highly probable uh type of moves that you would see at a top just yet.
It's saying we could potentially go one more. So, we're watching this 2hour very closely for the spy to see if the daily chart can curl up while it is still in positive territory and can make a move to 700. Overall, just reviewing some things that we are discussing over the weekend, but we are trying to dictate, hey, can this do be a higher low for the 2-hour and that would tell us the daily is highly probable to turn up here.
So, the big thing here is can we get a hint and did we get the hint or one of the hints that we were looking for over the weekend? Did we get it from the 30-inut chart? And the answer is yes, you did. Now, we got the riskier one, right? We don't really bull bulls would say hey the bears are definitely in control as long as we are rolling below this 5day moving average it is risky for downside but if we are able to catch ourselves here and confirm a divergence then that can really save this market and volatility is saying something very critical about tomorrow and we have an 85% chance of a certain something happening tomorrow.
So stick with us towards the end where we get into volatility. We're just going through spy cues and some volatility today. But we do see that one of the things we were paying attention to was a higher low above like breaking above the 5day and coming back for that higher low. Didn't get it. What did we get?
We got the other one we were paying attention to. Meaning bears are in control as of right now. But we have set up a divergence point that if we are able to see something a little surprising tomorrow. Able to curl up on this MACD. You do have somewhat of a divergence. very minimal I would say on the MACD but pretty significant on the RSI.
So the divergence we are paying attention to is there. It has not confirmed and I even watched in the shorter time frames and and nothing in the shorter time frames was telling me a hint that this was going to confirm tomorrow. This will be purely something to react to going into tomorrow's session.
If we do, you know, or someone decided to take positions here, well, one, it's the end of the year. We've been talking about how hopefully you are managing that risk, downsizing those positions, not ruining a year's worth of trading, trying to make big bucks for Christmas, but instead you're going, hey, I'm going to downsize those position and trade when the trade is there.
That's what overall I am doing. Um, and that's just what I've been telling people because hey, that's what I happen to be doing. But if I see a divergence and I like it, I might want to take it. This one though did not give me the hints on the shorter time frame. Meaning, if I took it, I would be taking on a lot more risk.
I would be taking on something that hasn't confirmed yet. when tomorrow we could see that confirmation and then with that confirmation could just be a trade setup to take this to the weekly expected move. That's overall what I wanted to discuss with the spy to start things off. And there is a slight difference with the cues.
So let's get over there on the 30-inut chart and get you guys daily expected moves. Right, we do see a big range here. 61391 to the upside, 59341 to the downside. Remember the bare thing, the bare thing here is simple. We don't confirm this to the upside. We have no conversation uh for the bulls, right?
We are rolling and rolling and rolling below the 5day moving average, right? A lot of people would probably say cup and handle at this point. We broke the low. This is not a good thing. But the cues have made a very significant divergence right here on the MACD for the 30-inut. It has made it very significant on the RSI as well.
So if the 30-minut can turn up here for whatever reason, take out these levels and really you would like to see the Q's taking out that 625 level. But if you can take this back and start making those higher lows, this divergence might tell you that the 2hour chart is going to reverse around. And if the 2-hour chart is able to reverse around, remember what we were paying attention to with the cues.
the fact that up in these areas it was risky and we talked about what down in these areas if we saw a drop you look for the potential two-hour divergence in this area right you look for that 2-hour divergence we do see it on the MACD we see it on the RSI we should be prepared for this days in advance as this forms you now have 30-inut divergence and 2-hour divergence at the same time which means if these things start to confirm you can see a chain reaction that can tell you when the daily is highly probable to turn up um while it is above the center line in positive territory.
This is all very very good things from the market as the cues were not able to create the divergence on the MACD and RSI at the same time but a flat divergence on the RSI. Nothing on the MACD as it got wiped out. We are paying attention for one more chance to move up here. One more move to set that divergence point to really trap people with the bulls because we have overall been in fear this whole time.
So, this is really what I'm paying attention to. And if tomorrow we don't see a confirmation to the upside, then the bulls most likely didn't show up and we're going to continue rolling potentially into December. That would be a scary time. So, as of right now, you're looking for the 2-hour to confirm for the cues.
That would mean the 30 minute with the spectacular looking divergence here. It just doesn't look good in the really short time frames, but it is very very significant. If that is able to confirm, you can start a chain reaction and go make a new all-time high. the Q's a little bit lower so they can make the lower high, which is usually what the Q's do at a major top.
We'll be watching for it. But now it's time to get into volatility. Why are we talking about that upside? Well, we're talking about that upside because the signals we're paying attention to are there. And if we want to keep rolling, that's bearish. But if we want to reverse around, now might be the time.
And you might see that volatility was up by 12.97%. That means that volatility is saying, I'm up by 10%. which means that tomorrow, right, tomorrow we have an 85% chance for an update for the spy. So that tells us a lot going into tomorrow. Now, if we do see a significant update from the SPY in the next two trading sessions, because technically the stat is um that volatility when it is up by more than 10%.
You will see a upday in the market in the next two trading sessions with an 85% probability. That being said, we need to pay attention to if that bounce is tomorrow and if it is rigorous because you have two-hour divergence here uh on volatility on the MACD on the RSI. All of it is significant which means we can see what a daily move to the downside if these things confirm.
Now, what about the 30-inut chart? It's showing that as well. So when these signals uh for volatility usually anything that trades uh more than just regular trading hours, I do kind of mess with the the time frames at certain times. Since this is extended for the 30 minute and the 2our is showing it.
I would use the hourly chart as a good indicator if for a confirmation here. We did not see volatility confirm this today. This is something we'll have to react to tomorrow. I want to be very clear with that in this video that signals have not confirmed. Therefore, if you're just taking this, that means you saw the potential for a divergence to confirm, but it isn't just yet.
So, let's get into the main takeaway here. If the hourly chart is able to curl down here, if we are able to curl up here for the 30 minute chart and then the 2-hour chart for the SPY and the QQQs, well, if all these things are confirming and all these things are bullish and we see a big enough move, we can be right back on the bull and heading to 700 over the next couple of weeks.
So, I wanted to point that out. If we want to keep rolling, that will be the bearish thing. So, as of right now, I would pay attention if you need to react to this 30-minute divergence confirming tomorrow. We'd be looking for it to try to take back that fiveday, set some kind of higher low to get to that weekly expected move.
And then we'd be looking for the two-hour chart confirmation as well to tell us what tell us that the daily is highly likely to curl up with this uh confirmed two-hour higher low. So, let's see if we can make that last move higher. It looks like tomorrow is going to be one of the last days for the bulls to try to step in.
So, let's be on our toes and make sure we're trading like water. know it's kind of a quick one. Uh, but I wanted to make sure to get this info out to you guys as implied volatility is going up. If you're interested in learning and things like that, I'm not shouting it out from the rooftops, but I did just put an early bird Black Friday sale for the uh there.
If you want to grab that, you want to learn a little bit, I totally get it. But if you just want to stick around, like the videos, and get some information from me, that's perfectly fine. And I just hope that it ends up helping you out in some way. Have a great rest of your night, guys. Peace out.
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