저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
SPY·QQQ 일봉에서 MACD·RSI·5일선 이탈 등 약세 신호가 확인되어 조정/더블탑 가능성을 언급하나, 30분봉 다이버전스 등 반전 신호 출현 시 하락이 실패하고 700 상승으로 갈 수 있다고 양방향을 제시. 내년 1월경 주간 조정 가능성도 언급. VIX는 만기일 전후 변동 가능성을 봄. 최종적으로 '물처럼 거래하라(trade like water)'는 원칙 강조하며 유료 강의를 홍보.
다듬은 글
Welcome, welcome, and thank you so much for clicking on today's video. We are getting more and more developments as we run into the first big data drop for the week. Then we do that just as we're going to go into VIX. Vixiration will be tomorrow and then we'll go into some more data on Thursday. We're going to get to that in tomorrow's video.
But for today, we know what we're looking for in this area. Let's mention and start off because today's going to be a pretty quick video, but we're going to remind you and talk about some key levels for tomorrow with those daily expected moves. Uh, first thing you need to notice about the daily chart before we get into those shorter time frames is we are closing below the 20, that accidental one that I had, but we do have a confirmation from the MACD.
We have good confirmation from the price action with a negative bar below the 9-day moving average. And we do see the confirmation now for the RSI as well. So, we have this all at the same time. That means the boxes have been check have been ticked. That means that the opportunity for someone to call some kind of crash, some kind of at least double top for a correction is there.
But we need to get into those shorter time frames because we were talking about this confirming and also talking about the potential for failure due to market psychology due to the fact that we need to potentially see that 700 by the end of the year for those rich folk. And this could be a moment where we mentioned this on Patreon earlier today with to just get the crash narrative going again to use them for liquidity.
It could not. So, we're going to also go into some other things on this 2-hour chart. Remember the 2-hour chart here, what we'd need to see for the bears to truly take over is to keep rejecting off of that 5day on the shorter time frames like a 30 minute. But on the 2-hour chart, we are going to need to drop down, I think, see something significant and then set up that lower high.
see something really significant set up that lower high, right? We see how we could cup and handle this some formation in some way. That would be the bearish way down. But what are we paying attention to if that signal is going to fail? So, one thing I wanted to do today was leave up the daily expected moves from today.
So, these are the daily expected moves from today. I will be giving you and we're going to update them like right now. Uh, but I wanted to show you where we where we went to today and the daily expected move that we put out there in yesterday's video. This is a good reason to subscribe to this channel.
Even if you don't like any of the things that I say, these are very critical levels and I'll do the calculation for you and I'll give it out almost every single day if I don't make a YouTube video and then I will put it out on Patreon. But this is why it's good to at least get some of this information and some of this information could be helpful to you if even just these red lines.
Okay, that 68% zone for the day. We went down and tagged it and then we bounced up and we closed within it. So the key thing here to remember about these moves before we update them is remember that we have that 70 remember the title of this weekend's video 75% chance 75% of the time you will tag one of these sides of the weekly expected moves in purple that is your 68% zone for the week and we have not tagged one last week.
So this week we're really thinking up which one are we in direction for right now. We're in direction for that one for VIX tomorrow. Let's get you those updated levels. Okay, let's make sure to update you in this video as we're kind of running on a time crunch here. 68345, right? So 68345 going to be a key level.
Look at that. We're going to talk about that for sure. And we see 67429. So 67429 to the downside. So the key thing here for the spy on the 30-inut chart, let's point out what's going on down here. First of all, we have not hit an oversold reading. I think that that is very interesting. We do not, as far as even the RSI goes, we do not have a divergence setup at this point.
So, if we were going to make a divergence, we would use this point. I like my divergences to start out the starting point in negative or uh in oversold territories or overbought territories, the overextended areas. We don't see that yet. And I'm going to give it some grace as the cues are doing something interesting.
So, make sure to stick around for that. But notice as we update those daily expected moves, 68345. If we are going to see what we were talking about, you need to look for what in this area for the daily signal to fail. You need the 2-hour to curl up into positive territory while it is close enough to the center line to see a positive move and potentially test this high, go make a new one.
So, we potentially want to set up something here by the end of Thursday. And that would be what? That would be a higher low. That would be a potential divergence. Now, Patreon members, you saw me post something like this today uh over to Patreon because I was just reminding you, hey, stay patient, stay calm.
I think some people need to just chill out and just understand, hey, patience is a good thing around this time because as we look at the positioning of the MACD for the 30 minute here, you're not in a spot where this just shoots up and goes positive randomly, especially on a day like Vixir. On Vixiration, we can pop up and tag that 5day, right?
Retest the fiveday. The fiveday is a good indication for where people would load back up on what puts for the roll, right? We tag the fiveday puts for the roll. But what we will watch for is if we are going to reject here, the bears are slightly in control on the shorter time frames. We can easily see that in the shorter time.
But if we're able to roll here and set up some kind of divergence point at that weekly expected move, that is a very serious hint for a trap. That would say this is highly probable to be a trap. When that does confirm, that means that this 30-minute divergence right here would suggest that the 2hour is going to curl up.
And if that is anywhere close to that center line, we're able to take the 5day back, we start to go back into positive trends on the shorter time frame, then this daily time frame is going, this daily double top signal is going to fail. Everyone is calling for this. It looks really, really obvious. That is why psychologically, if it looks really obvious, everyone's talking about it.
Everyone's been talking about a crash for the last month very seriously. You want to be open to both sides. And what did we end the Patreon message with to sum up all that we're doing here on this channel? To sum up everything that was in that post on Patreon. The key thing here is trade like water.
Have your reasons for a trade. Have your reasons to get out of a trade. Have the plan for getting in. Have the plan for getting out if it goes wrong. All of these things are taught in . and we'll teach you about weekly ranges. And the exact thing that we're doing this week is exactly the thing that you want to do during key moments, right?
You keep getting caught up in crash narratives and then it turns back up and you miss a low. You miss this low down at these areas. Well, we were talking about the same things we're talking about over here. We were talking about right over here. And you can learn all of this down in that course. The full technical analysis course is 90% off right now.
You can get it for only $100. I am glad that people are taking advantage of that as there is limited seating and we're starting to fill up fast. So, I'm hoping to keep that live through December, hopefully through January if those seats are not filled. But get it while it lasts. Key thing here is you are looking for a reversal signal that tells you this is going to fail.
And when everyone sees this, if you see this look, I think everyone will be saying stock market crash. And you can say that too because you just rolled off of the fiveday moving average. But if you curl right back up, watch out because if that is able to confirm, you set up some kind of divergence point right over here, I would be watching out because people are most likely going to get this very wrong and you might miss some kind of easy run to 700.
Not saying it has to happen. I'm saying trade like water. Make sure to react. That's the best thing to do at this time. Now, we will look at this and say, okay, what are the Q's doing? Well, the Q's as far as the daily expected moves, we see what we see 61678. We see 60672. I see a lot of people mentioning, hey, why are the tech stocks, why are the cues up during a time where we just saw unemployment tick up, right?
Let's talk about that just for a split second. Unemployment ticked up to 4.6, right? That's a big deal. Non-farm payrolls comes out, retail sales comes out. Okay, but the big thing here is unemployment, right? We talked about this just a few weeks ago in a macro video. Unemployment is something I keep my eye on.
And so, why would tech stops be up with unemployment? Well, if you think about it, if all of them switch to AI, their do their revenues most likely go up or down now that they don't have to pay humans? That's how I think about it. I think that their revenues will increase over time because they always increase over time and the government bails them out if anything bad does happen and banks as well.
So, as we look at the tech stocks though, does any of that matter? Right? That's kind of what I was getting at here. These people talk about these topics, they put out these big things, but does that really matter for what's going on right now? I think not. The big thing that needs to be pointed out to you guys are some key levels for tomorrow.
The fact that implied volatility shrunk in. The fact that your top side daily expected move is right where you would get a retest of the 5day before you see failure. But the other thing that you need to mention is the cues look a little funky here because you do have potential divergence here on your 30-inut chart on the MACD and RSI at the same time.
So the thing that we are suggesting the the SPY needs to make the cues have technically already made. Now, their two-hour chart, if you did not know, is relatively negative. This is still within striking distance. If you are able to see a positive move for one full day, this will be positive again, and you most likely will be taking back that 5day to head to that upside.
So, just watch out if people start saying crash, crash, crash, and you see us start to take back the fiveday. All right. Um, the other thing about the 30-inut chart here is if this needs to make a triple divergence, this would be the time for it. The spy has not made that divergence yet. The spy has not made the higher low yet.
So maybe they join each other and they both make higher lows like this. Or we both see them maybe make a double bottom or you see triple divergence for the Q's and you see a single divergence there over for the spy. Those are just some ideas. If you were looking for the bearish scenario, the bearish scenario is already here.
You have confirmations on not the fiveminute the daily chart. You confirm that as of yesterday. not with a positive bar today, but you did confirm it yesterday. This means that if you want to continue bearishness, you do not want this 2hour to turn up right now. You would rather that 2hour roll off, right, the 30 minute actually roll off of that 5day just like we're suggesting.
And you want to see a dump down to that weekly expected move or further. And then you would most likely want to see a two-hour uh kind of relief moment that then fails again as this fiveday kind of goes like this. You would want to see a failure of that for a moment and then you would want to see it start to climb to the downside again.
That is your bearish scenario. Sorry, I'm trying to do this a little bit quickly. Let's go over volatility. Volatility looks very weird to me. Volatility has not popped off. And this is why I believe that we are going to see uh most likely some kind of downside move going into Vixir, aka going into tomorrow.
We will most likely see some moment where we get a big wick like this or something. That does happen a lot of the time during Vixiration. And if you didn't know, Vixiration is just the re that pretty much they do these moves to repric the contracts. And I can put out the Vixiration schedule uh over the weekend when I do have time to put together a full lengthy video right now trying to take care of wifey.
She is very pregnant and in a lot of pain today. So I'm trying to get out of here. But let's go over volatility. If the 2-hour cross is down, you have a similar scenario to last one. You can make new lows. Uh, but you also want to watch out in case you do just make that higher low. You are still positive.
You're kind of pinging ponging back and forth. You can see positive, negative, positive, negative. So, we'll watch for that. The big signal is the daily did not confirm up. Okay, this is a big deal. The daily actually did not confirm up today. And I think that's interesting. So, the Q's confirmed down, the spy confirmed down, but volatility has yet to cur to curl up with that easy simple double top look.
It looks a little fishy to me. And what I would say is overall the 30 minute is suggesting that the 2hour is going to pull back, but I would watch because this 30 minute has been very wonky. I've I've rarely seen vi the VIX behave like this at a moment like this. Uh so watch if you just see volatility curl up here.
That would mean that volatility would need to go for at least one more run and then we'd potentially see the opposite signal we're looking for from the spine the cues for the VIX. Okay, so this is pretty much the sum up of our video. We did confirm a daily reversal signal. This is suggesting and we should take into consideration that that's confirming because we are looking for the weekly correction going into 2026.
We think that in the first month of 2026, we will set up that actual top, set that real trap. And the last trap of 2025 going into 2026, we will start to see a weekly pullback, a weekly correction where we can correct pretty well. And and it depends on how long we can correct because we've gone up for a long time.
But if we want to fail this right now to go get 700, that target for the top 10% that own 90% of stocks, well then we're going to need this 2hour to turn up into positive territory. And psychologically, I think that this makes total sense as far as the end of the year goes. That would make total sense.
Now, what are we looking for in the last part of this video? In order to turn up this 2-hour, we're looking for the 30-inut hints. So, if you see in the next two trading sessions, just in case I can't put out a video in the next two trading sessions, if you see a higher low, especially off that five-day moving average, we're back in business.
If you see a divergence point at that weekly expected move as we are 75% likely to tag that this week and you see divergences pop up here on your MACD and RSI at the same time. Well then I would watch out with all those crash narratives because they are very very likely to be wrong and I am warning about it very very much so in advance.
I hope that this information does help you. Like I said if you disagree with me that's perfectly fine guys. We all are here to just try to make money and benefit our families and maybe, you know, take on a job that you can spend more time with family. That's overall why I did it and I hope that this is in some way helpful to you and even if you disagree with me, you have some good levels to watch for tomorrow. night. Peace out.
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