저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
금은 M2 대비 사상 최고치 후 조정 가능성이 있어 비트코인으로의 전환을 제안. 비트코인은 금과 상관관계가 거의 없으며, 2030년 150만 달러 목표를 제시. 10월 바이낸스 플래시 크래시 여파가 정리 중이며 8~9만 달러 박스권을 예상. AI·로보택시·유전체 시퀀싱·블록체인 등 기술 융합이 향후 5~10년간 대규모 매출 기회를 창출하고 생산성은 5~6%로 가속될 것으로 전망.
다듬은 글
Gold is probably riding for a fall because the last two times it was anywhere near this was in the massive inflation. So double-digit inflation in the 70s early 80s. I would make a shift from gold into Bitcoin because I do think the knocks on Bitcoin in the last year have been stable coins are taking some of the role that Bitcoin was going to play in emerging markets.
That's true. But that's not forever. That's just for the equivalent of a checking account. When they want real savings, they're going to buy Bitcoin, we believe, especially if it's a 1.5 million uh dollar price targeted in in 2030. In every market cycle, certain assumptions harden into perceived truths.
Investors repeat them. Analysts build narratives around them, and over time, they become accepted wisdom. Gold is inflation protection. Bitcoin is digital gold. Technology cycles always end in bubbles. Innovation always moves faster than fundamentals. Kathy Wood begins by addressing one of the most common misconceptions in modern macro investing.
The idea that Bitcoin and gold are correlated assets. While the narrative is intuitive, both are scarce. Both are often framed as stores of value. The data tells a very different sto; First thing you should know, Bitcoin and gold are not correlated. We did the analysis. If you go over this cycle from 2020 to today, uh the correlation, so one would be a perfect correlation.
Uh minus one would be an in, you know, the inversion when one goes up, the other one goes down. It's as close to zero as you can get. So no correlation. That's really important for everyone to know. If you look at the last two cycles, gold led Bitcoin. And then the third thing uh I will say is um if you'll find this on my uh on X Kathy Dwood a chart showing gold divided by M2.
It has only been it has never been higher. It hit a new al all all-time high all-time high this week. Now it's starting to correct. We put I don't think it's because we put this chart out, but I will say uh what I said in there is gold is probably riding for a fall because the last two times it was anywhere near this was in the massive inflation.
So doubledigit inflation in the 70s early 80s and before that the great depression when gold well the dollar was devalued in gold terms from 20.67 67 to 35. That's a 70% devaluation. That's like emerging market kind of devaluation. Right? Back in 1934, uh January 31st, 1934, the government confiscated private gold, didn't allow any more private ownership of gold, and money supply collapsed.
Now, we're not in anything like either of those two worlds. And yet, gold is where it is. I think if I if I were a betting person and I can't give advice necessarily, but I would make a shift from gold into Bitcoin because I do think the knocks on Bitcoin in the last year have been stable coins are taking some of the role that Bitcoin was going to play in emerging markets.
That's true. But that's not forever. That's just for the equivalent of a checking account. when they want real savings, they're going to buy Bitcoin, we believe, especially if it's a$ 1.5 million uh dollar price target in in 2030. That's our bullc case is right. And this idea digital gold, it is better than gold actually.
You know why? Because the supply well that yes, that's critical. But the supply in terms of monetary policy, the supply growth of Bitcoin is 0.8% 8% per year and it'll drop to 0.4 in another two years. I'll bet you a lot that gold supplies are going to be up much more than that. Their average over time is 1%.
So I think I think with inter intergenerational wealth transfer that uh that Bitcoin is going to take off here. Very few people know this but because there's been there have been so many other things to worry about. Uh but on October 10th there was a flash crash caused by a software glitch at Binance and there was an auto deleveraging event.
People were just you know margin called uh to the tune of about $28 billion. Uh we know some of the entities that were caught up in that. They were caught flatfooted. Uh and we think that is just now washing through the system. So, if you're looking for something that has weighed on it recently, we do think that happened.
Uh, Bitcoin's the most liquid of all crypto assets. So, it's the first margin call, right? Uh, and we think we think that's pretty much worked it way out. So, we're testing here around 80,000 again. uh we think uh that we're going to hold in the 80 to 90,000 range unless all hell breaks loose uh in Iran, let's say, and then maybe we'll see the store of value uh come back for Bitcoin.
Beyond crypto, Kathy places artificial intelligence at the center of a much broader economic transformation. AI in her framework is not just another technology. It is the catalyst that accelerates every other innovation platform. One example is autonomous mobility. Robo taxes are not simply vehicles.
They are robots powered by AI, dependent on energy storage, and enabled by massive data processing capabilities. None of this was economically viable a decade ago. Today, falling costs and technological maturity are bringing it into reality. AI is the catalyst to all of the other innovation platforms to speeding them up as well.
There's a great convergence taking place. So uh if you think about robo taxis it's the convergence among robots robo taxis are robots obviously energy storage they will be electric and AI they'll be powered by AI uh they couldn't exist without AI and we think uh that that's going to scale to a global revenue uh generation opportunity of more than $10 trillion ion dollars in the next 5 to 10 years from almost nothing today.
Uh and uh another example of convergence is in the health care space. Many people don't think about technology as much or AI as much when uh they think about healthcare but it's probably the most profound application of AI and it's the convergence of sequencing technologies including single cell sequencing.
We each have 35 to 40 trillion cells in our bodies and now we're going to be able to sequence down to the cell level. So s sequencing technologies, AI and then crisper gene editing which is able to edit out programming errors that we are now able to find uh thanks to the convergence between AI and DNA sequencing.
Well, all kinds of sequencing. There's a huge wall of worry. Uh the strongest bull markets uh are climbing walls of worry. Uh I remember I was in the internet well the tech and telecom bubble as it's called. And there was no worry at all. The only the only investors worrying uh were value investors because they thought they'd lose their businesses, right?
And they ended up having the last laugh back then. Uh but the most senior portfolio managers and investors in our industry today, they were fairly young during the tech and telecom bubble. They now have the gray hairs and they're saying been there done that I am not going to get caught in that kind of a mess again.
So uh we have you know two steps forward one step back as you get that kind of worry. uh and uh the reason we think this is not like the internet is because we have so many technologies now. Back then as you say we we had come off sort of the PC and PC software cycle into uh the internet age and then into mobile but uh we don't we don't we didn't have five major platforms evolving at the same time.
and they involve 15 different technologies. So the five platforms are robotics, energy, storage and AI. And of course Tesla is the poster child capitalizing on that one. The other two innovation platforms are blockchain technology and multiomic sequencing in the life science space. Um what we are expecting is the convergence of these technologies um will be like scurves feeding S-curves.
So in in most technologies they evolve slowly slowly then all at once right. Well we're having all of these technologies. Yes. It's taken a long time for autonomous mobility to get here really. Um we were talking about it at the founding of ARC uh in 2014. Uh but it is here and part of the reason is robotics, energy storage and AI have developed enough uh have evolved enough so that their costs are low enough so that we're ready for prime time.
I'm going to give you an example of how ridiculous in the tech and telecom bubble it was. It was it included biotech and there was this dream of personalized medicine back then. Why? Because we were close to sequencing the first whole human genome. Uh back then uh it cost $2.7 billion to sequence one person's genome.
Today it costs $100. Think about that, right? So from 2.7 billion to 100, we are ready for prime time. The technologies are ready and the costs are low enough. This is where we're going to learn a lot. I think investing's that the pendulum shift is is going to move back to longer term time horizons.
What we're what many analysts are struggling with right now is um the short-term time horizon they have. You know, I want my profits now. I want my dividends now, my share repurchases now. Uh and unfortunately, it is going to take some time partly because of the supply chain issues. Uh we're seeing TSM, you know, it was interesting TSM's capex was stalled at roughly 10 billion, right?
Uh and we were thinking, okay, is TSM signaling that there is a an inventory uh problem looming out there. Well, I think they just jacked that up. Didn't they jack it up to I forget what they Yes. Quite significantly. and that and they're extremely cautious. They've been through many many many cycles and what they do is they they they go to the customers of their customers.
uh that's how paranoid they are about this inventory situation and I think they they learned as they were doing that wait a minute uh what what's happening is the applications uh uh associated with I AI are so broad so profound and the productivity changes uh are are so enormous uh that you know they they began to understand wait a minute this is a revolution It's a revolution.
We actually think the payoff is is from our point of view, we have a 5year investment time horizon and uh we think the payoff's going to be not five years. We're going to start seeing we've already started seeing productivity gains. Um we've we've said for some time we've been through a rolling recession.
Manufacturing's been down for three years. Housing's been down for three years. uh small businesses terribly depressed for three years. Uh that is all starting to change. Um but productivity partly for that reason uh uh companies have been focused on efficiency gains and so productivity is close to 2% on a year-over-year basis.
Uh which is fairly strong for this uh time in the in the cycle. We think that's going to accelerate to the five to six% range as manufacturing comes back as you know the entire global economy um recovers from I think the vestigages of an interest rate cycle that really hurt and while while GDP didn't show it and so if you don't dig uh beneath the headline growth rate uh you can't understand in this when you talk to companies you definitely understand it.
Kathy Wood's message is ultimately about alignment. Aligning capital with the scale and direction of change rather than the comfort of familiar narratives. Bitcoin is not gold. Gold is not obsolete. Innovation is not a bubble simply because it is disruptive and economic transitions do not unfold neatly within quarterly earning cycles.
The convergence of technologies underway today is reshaping productivity, markets, and monetary systems in ways that require patience, longtime horizons, and a willingness to challenge assumptions.
Comments 0