저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
비트코인은 4년 사이클상 약 50% 조정 후 바닥에 근접했을 가능성이 있으나 확신은 없음. 기관은 4년 사이클을 학습해 관망 중이나 BTC는 주식·금과 상관관계가 낮아 기관 수요는 결국 들어올 것. 금은 M2 대비 시총이 역사적 고점 근처로 과열, 달러는 강세 전환 가능성. 인플레이션은 트루플레이션 기준 1% 미만으로 하락, 연내 2% 이하 가능. 양자컴퓨터 상용화는 2045~2064년으로 아직 멀다. AI는 정보통신 버블과 달리 기술 사이클 초입이며 시장은 우려 속에서 상승하는 '벽 오르기' 구간.
다듬은 글
If we're right on what's going to happen here, that debasement trade is I is going to be wrong because the dollar is going to go up perhaps more dramatically than anyone expects and all other things equal. That alone would drive the gold price down. Institutions started learning more about Bitcoin. They learned about this four-year cycle.
And so my guess is there are a lot of institutions that have held back and are saying let me see let me wait until the the dust settles and around this 4-year cycle and I'll pick my spots. Kathy Wood begins with cycle analysis. Bitcoin's recent draw down approximately 50% from peak has been painful.
Yet in historical perspective it is not extraordinary. The earliest major cycle saw Bitcoin fall roughly 95%. The last cycle experienced a decline closer to 75%. By comparison, the current correction, while significant, is milder. . in terms of where we are in the cycle. Well, because we didn't have the kind of soaring upcycle after the having uh we did not expect this much of a correction.
It's still not as bad. It's about a 50% correction. It's still not as bad as we have seen in the past. uh which was in the beginning down 95% and I think the last cycle was down 75%. So maybe we've bottomed. I don't know. It's uh it's uh uncanny this four-year cycle. But we do have to wonder how much of this has been caused by the flash crash on October 10th.
uh which um many people have have um wondered if I've been saying this correctly. Uh we had the flash crash. Uh Binance didn't cause it at all. uh there was excessive leverage but Binance exacerbated what happened in terms of the deleveraging because of a software glitch that it had uh and caused a lot of auto deleveraging.
Uh so I think that unnerved uh many people and they're waiting to see still if there is a whale out there who's going to be forced to sell Bitcoin because uh he or she is so underwater and uh receiving margin calls from prime brokers. We heard recently that uh that is indeed what has happened. uh it that was a rumor and if that is what has happened uh then I feel we're pretty close to the bottom but famous last words you know you don't know if that rumored whale uh did go down because if it's a whale we should know about it the green light that regulators gave Bitcoin and the ETFs here in the United States yes was the beginning of institutional investment but as institutions started Ed learning more about Bitcoin.
They learned about this four-year cycle. And so my guess is there are a lot of institutions that have held back and are saying, "Let me see, let me wait until the the dust settles and around this four-year cycle and I'll pick my spots." Uh, but they know they have a fiduciary responsibility. Advisers do, asset allocators do because Bitcoin is not correlated to any other asset class.
and gold. Well, it's interesting. Bitcoin, if you look um if you if you look since uh late 2019 to today, the correlation between gold and Bitcoin has been 0.14. Hardly any correlation whatsoever. But if you zoom out a bit, uh you can see the last two cycles were led by gold, uh not by bitcoin. So we shall see.
One of the most fascinating charts I've seen recently is um the market cap of gold to M2. Now we we use USM2 because we can get those data back into the early 1900s. Um, so if you look at that chart, gold hit an all-time high two weeks ago relative to M2. There have been only two times that we're even close to it.
One was at the end of the 70s, early 80s when inflation here in the United States was raging at a double-digit rate. And so that was understandable, but that was the peak. And then gold went down for 20 years. the price went down for 20 years. And then the other peak was, I believe it was 1934, the Great Depression.
And what was happening then was a deflationary bust. Money supply was collapsing. So the denominator pushed it up dramatically because the gold the gold price was fixed back then. Uh so that was a deflationary bust and which defined the Great Depression. We're not anywhere near that. So that's how extreme gold has become.
And so I would say if I were a betting person and I am uh as an investor, we have to it's not these are not uh bets without without being backed up by research. said, um, I would say the gold prices peaked. Uh, again, famous last words, uh, if, uh, if there something goes wrong in Iran, uh, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I, I could be very wrong, but, um, absent that, I really do think the gold price has peaked.
If we're right on what's going to happen here, that debasement trade is I is going to be wrong because the dollar is going to go up perhaps more dramatically than anyone expects and all other things equal. That alone would drive the gold price down. And I think this end of US exceptionalism uh concept uh being fed by the dollar's recent decline um misses this point that all of the policy actions in the last year are so positive for United States assets uh that I think the head fake is going to be the dollar going up as more foreign direct investment heads here and as more capital after this rotation comes back.
Inflation remains the central macro battleground. Wood references real-time inflation tracking through measures such as trueflation, which aggregates thousands of price points continuously. According to that metric, inflation peaked near 12% in 2022 and has since fallen below 1%. Official government measures tend to lag such real-time data.
If they follow the same trajectory, inflation could fall well below 2% this year. So, we're putting a paper out, I would say, in the next couple of weeks about quantum. Uh, in big ideas, you can see a a a kind of a preliminary thought. In big ideas uh and in a section c uh called the great acceleration by Brett Winton our chief futurist we show the progress in quantum that Google which is at the bleeding edge of quantum computing that Google has made and it has doubled uh the most important metric in terms of gauging are we ready for prime time.
it has doubled the number of cubits in the last four years. Uh that is slower than Moore's law scaling and right. uh and if it continues at that pace and typically technologies do continue at the pace uh you know at which they start then quantum computing is not going to be commercially viable until 2064.
If for somehow Google speeds this up to Moore's law, so twice as fast the progress, then we're talking 2045, I think, something around that time. Um, now that doesn't mean, you know, we should dismiss the quantum as a threat. um we we need to take any new technology seriously or any new technology that in my career practically since I'm going to say for the last 25 years quantum has always been 20 years away right so here again we're saying 20ish years away uh so um nonetheless uh we we shouldn't dismiss it And we do know uh that half of the solution to a problem is understanding the problem.
And we're learning okay if you make a change uh if in these OG wallets uh so uh to an updated wallet that will be quantum resistant. Uh so I think that's very healthy for the ecosystem to anticipate this. We are not worried about quantum in the short term and that will be the gist of the paper um uh that that we're putting out in the next few weeks.
Kevin Worsh uh is a hawk so he tends to be very disciplined in terms of monetary policy. So I think some people are saying wait a minute you know he's he's going to be tougher than Powell. Uh be careful. I actually think the stars are aligning perfectly for him. Uh because if you look at inflation measures in real time, there's a measure called true inflation, it measures in real time 10,000 items 24/7 and that measure of inflation peaked at 12% in 22 and it is now below 1%.
and the traditional measures of inflation or the government uh measures of inflation tend to follow this measure of inflation. So I think inflation is going to break down well below 2% this year and according to the official measures and I also think real growth will accelerate uh with productivity a very important part of the real growth acceleration.
The most potent anti-inflationary force out there is productivity. And so I do believe now consider the source. I've been saying this for a while, not uh understanding that the supply shock from COVID was going to last 3 years and not understanding that President Trump would do another round of tariff increases bigger in uh his um second term.
Uh but so I've been saying what I'm about to say now for the last year. We think that uh that prices will move into negative territory uh in the next few years. So the burden of proof is on us, but I'm so I'm happy that true inflation has dropped below 1%. We we believe that um that we're climbing a wall of worry in the stock market and uh the strongest bull markets I've experienced in my 40-year plus career have been climbing a wall of worry particularly in the 80s and 90s.
Uh and I feel that we're going back to that kind of period. the market is hitting all-time highs and we've gotten through so much turmoil uh in the last year especially the tariff turmoil which I know has hit every country and uh seems as chaotic uh to us as it does to you as well as our government shutdown and uh the continuation of the Japanese uh yen carry trade unwind that continues uh and Yet, the market is hitting highs.
Now, on the AI hype, is this hype? We do not believe so. Uh, we believe we're in the middle of the or at the beginning, I should actually say, at the beginning of the most powerful technology revolution in history. Uh and the reason people are fearful is because they that the people and the investors, the analysts who were around for the tech and telecom bubble in the late 90s, they are now the most senior people in uh in the industry.
They're the gray hairs now and the elder statesmen. uh and many of them are saying and and this is because they don't do the kind of technology research uh around we which we have centered our research and investing uh but they remember there's a lot of scar tissue from back then and now that they're so senior in the industry we hear many of them say been there done that not going to do that again uh I think if you look at our research and we just put out uh big ideas 2026 in January.
Uh you will see how early we believe we are in this technology cycle. And as you said in your introduction, I it's not just AI, but it's AI speeding up all of the othe. Uh so we believe that the investment cycle uh in most sectors around these innovations has uh really it's closer to the beginning uh than it is to the middle even.
Kathy Wood's macro vision blends humility about short-term unpredictability with conviction about long-term direction. Bitcoin's correction may be nearing completion. Institutional capital remains methodical but interested. Gold appears historically stretched relative to money supply.
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