저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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캐시 우드는 현재 AI 사이클 초기이며 AI·로봇·에너지저장·블록체인·멀티오믹스가 '대가속'을 이끈다고 주장. 비트코인은 4년 주기 하락이 대부분 끝났고 80~90K 박스권 횡보 후 반등할 것으로 전망. 디플레이션 리스크를 강조하며 금리 인하 필요성 언급. NYSE의 토큰화 플랫폼 발표를 긍정적으로 평가하고 24/7 거래 확산을 전망.
다듬은 글
And the question is, is the four-year cycle, the downside of it over, right? We think it's pretty much pushed through. Maybe we flatten out here in the 80 to 90,000 range base here for a while, but we think uh we think we'll be on our way soon. Uh there's a saying in the Bitcoin community, if it's not going to zero, it's going to a million at some point.
Bitcoin's going to be hit the hardest because it's the most liquid crypto asset. Markets often move in cycles, but occasionally they enter periods of transformation so powerful that they reshape entire industries, economies, and investment frameworks. According to Kathy Wood, CEO and CIO of Arc Invest, we are entering exactly such a moment, what she calls the great acceleration.
Kathy Wood begins with a crucial point that many investors underestimate. We are far earlier in the AI cycle than most people realize. She credits ARK's research team, including Brett Winton and the firm's analysts, for uncovering just how foundational AI still is. While headlines often focus on near-term winners and flashy use cases, ARK's deep research suggests that AI's most disruptive impacts are still ahead, not behind us.
; Kathy, you just came out with your big ideas 2026. You highlighted a quote great acceleration that we are entering right now. What sectors and names will benefit from this great acceleration? Well, I think the most important thing and and I have to credit uh our team, Brett Winton, all of our directors, research analysts.
I am standing on their shoulders uh because we're doing the deep research that is helping us understand that how early we are in the AI cycle uh hardware software and so forth. Um and just by saying that you you've seen how software stocks generally have underperformed badly. Uh and that is because many software names are not going to be on the right side of change.
uh with AI the world is changing and as we always say to our investors and uh our our education foundation we want to get people on the right side of change. Uh so we think every sector can benefit but it is really important to harness the tools associated with the five major innovation platforms that are evolving at the same time.
So, AI, robotics, energy storage, uh, blockchain technology, and multiomic sequencing in the life science space. Uh, let me just jump in. Let me jump in because I'm dying to hear your thought on Bitcoin. You've got a pure play Bitcoin fund. Sure. And I'm just interested to know because we're off the 126,000 high level.
You're still in it to win it. We are in it to win it. Absolutely. So ARKB right is our spot bitcoin ETF. uh and uh as we assess the ecosystem right now what what we've undergone in the last two to three months I are the reverberations after 1010 uh so 1010 October 10th was what in the crypto world I'm not sure if if it's uh mentioned this more broadly uh is the flash crash associated with a software glitch on Binance that deleveraged the system and to to the tune of 28 billion dollars.
Uh there are a lot of uh a lot of people hurt and we think that that unwind uh and often when you go through an unwind, Bitcoin is going to be hit the hardest because it's the most liquid crypto asset. We think that unwind is pretty much behind us. So now the only thing I think investors are worried about especially institutional investors who understand that they must they must examine this a as a new asset class the leader in a new asset class very low correlation with other other asset classes.
Uh and so they're looking at what's called the four-year cycle and we have been down and the question is is the four-year cycle the downside of it over. We think it's pretty much pushed through. Maybe we flatten out here in the 80 to 90,000 range base here for a while, but we think uh we think we'll be on our way soon.
Kathy Wood emphasizes that this is not about short-term market timing, but about positioning for a multi-year transformation driven by exponential change. Investors who cling to legacy benchmarks risk missing the biggest opportunities of the next decade, making selectivity, research, and conviction more important than ever.
Anthony Pompiano reinforces that conviction by urging calm during volatility, reminding investors that Bitcoin's sharp price moves are simply the cost of ownership. Short-term fluctuations may grab headlines, but they don't define the long-term story. Isn't Bitcoin and at least some of the crypto world supposed to be that well when the world is is really shaky and janky that's an SAT word I'm sure u go into a decentralized uh currency but that is not happening why not
well you know what I always do is when my friends reach out to me because they see the prices going down I say oh my god we have not seen these prices since last week everyone relax no listen obviously uh Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 which was the uh most recent all-time high. It drew down to $80,000 about almost 40% draw down.
Uh and now it's sitting somewhere around $90,000 and it's been oscillating between 85 and 95k back and forth. Um I think there's three reasons really why Bitcoin is doing what it's been doing. The first is uh frankly that Bitcoin has been changing hands from the hardcore Bitcoin believers into what uh my friend Jordi Visser would call the Bitcoin IPO moment.
Now Wall Street is really kind of taking the ball and they're running with it. And the Wall Street investors, they're now interested because Bitcoin doesn't have as much volatility to it. It used to be an 80 vol asset. Now it's more like a 40 asset. So as volatility comes down, you should expect that uh some of the holders change and they go and they look for something that's more asymmetric.
The second thing is I think people are drastically underestimating the risk of deflation in the US economy. AI is a way bigger theme. It is a way bigger trend than people realize and it is highly deflationary. Also, I think I came on last year and I said that tariffs were going to be deflationary as well.
If you look at trueflation, trueflation is showing the real-time alternative metric of inflation at less than 1.5%. So, I know the government's saying 2.7%. They're wrong. Inflation is under 2% right now. And it is a massive issue. And so, we should be cutting interest rates and we should actually be worried about that deflation.
And the third thing is people may not like it, but all of the quote unquote chaos that we experienced over the last 2 or 3 years, we saw Bitcoin's price rise significantly. Uh now it does feel like we have leadership on the global stage where the United States is saying we are going to be the world's police.
We're going to go and we're going to try to stop wars. We're going to go and we're going to take dictators and we're going to bring them to justice. We are going to do the things to shore up the strength of the Western Hemisphere and we understand who our adversaries are and we're not going to take their nonsense anymore.
Isn't it fair though to say that anybody who decides to go into crypto and to buy Bitcoin needs to really just be ready because it is moving all over the place depending on some headlines and then for no reason. So no tears here. You know, you you got to take ownership of the fact that this is going to move around a lot.
That said, let's talk a little bit about some of the the names of the stocks that are related, particularly strategy, which used to be Micro Strategy run by Michael Sailor. He just bought a huge chunk of Bitcoin. Uh if he waited till today, he could have got it cheaper, but he and his company don't seem to be fearful at all.
Every opportunity, he appears to be buying Bitcoin. And yet, it is not helping the stock, which is down, I think, 65% over the past year. Uh 56% I inverted the numbers. 56% over the past year. And people are wondering, you know, is is is the uh the bill coming due? He's got to pay some preferred shareholders some money soon.
Well, I think there's two things. Uh there's a saying in the Bitcoin community, if it's not going to zero, it's going to a million at some point. I don't know when that's going to happen, but it's going to go to a million someday. Uh the the second thing is um you know, strategy is a leveraged bet on Bitcoin.
And so when Bitcoin is going up, strategy tends to outperform. Well, if you have leverage, then if Bitcoin is going down, then it probably will draw down further. And so what I think you're seeing here is uh actually it's working right. This is a levered bet on Bitcoin. Um and if anyone thinks that they are failing, I think they own something like uh they've bought 50 something billion worth of Bitcoin.
I would love for you to uh put headlines up of Anthony Pompiano is failing because he only bought $50 billion worth of Bitcoin. And so I think it's easy to get caught up in the day-to-day kind of machinations, but uh ultimately I think that uh they're going to do just fine. uh the regulation situation.
The Senate Banking Committee at the at the 11th hour said, "What? We're not going to we're not going to deal with the Clarity Act right now." Coinbase weighed in, said they don't like it. Uh there's still the opportunity for this legislation to be rejiggered and would that be the next opportunity as a catalyst?
You know what's funny is the regulation is actually more helpful to Wall Street than it is to the crypto industry. The crypto industry has gone from nothing to trillions and trillions of dollars of value. when there's been a ton of companies that have been built by challengers, but the big incumbents are waiting on the sidelines to participate in certain uh instances because they want that regulatory clarity.
And so, in a weird way, the challengers actually get more and more of a head start as long as there is not that clarity. Now, I do believe we're going to get the clarity. Um I do believe that we will see the incumbents and the challengers both service the uh the end users. And I think that people just have to realize traditional finance and crypto are coming together.
It's all going to be called finance. you're gonna laugh about it in 10 or 15 years that you ever talked about crypto because it's just finance. The New York Stock Exchange announced a new tokenization platform. Is this a sign that Wall Street is capitulating? I find this announcement very interesting.
So, let's first talk about what exactly they announced. The New York Stock Exchange announced a new platform. They are not evolving their old platform. They are going to leave the legacy platform that serves the traditional stock market that is going to keep running. It's going to keep being very profitable and really it's going to continue to drive value for the New York Stock Exchange.
But simultaneous to that, they are building a new platform. That new platform is going to allow for the 247 trading of tokenized assets. Some of those assets will be old assets. Some of them will be native to the digital world. And you're going to be able to fund this 24/7 trading platform with stable coins.
And so what the New York Stock Exchange is basically doing is they're saying, "We're going to keep one foot in the old world. We're going to put one foot in the new world." The reason why I find that so fascinating is usually there would be a lot of risk associated with doing this. But ICE, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, they already operate a bunch of different exchanges.
They're used to having a lot of different irons in the fire. But the other thing that I find interesting is that the New York Stock Exchange and ICE are basically following the exact plan that they already told us they were going to do. Remember, ICE made a $2 billion investment in Poly Market. When they did it, they talked about prediction markets, but they also talked about the Poly Market team being a very big segue into the tokenized world and decentralized finance.
And so now it appears that the New York Stock Exchange is going allin. They are essentially going to say the innovator's dilemma which normally would require a company to choose between their legacy business and a new business. That doesn't apply here because the way they're going to solve that dilemma is to keep their existing business running, not change anything there, but they're going to build a net new platform and they're going to leverage all of their resources, their knowledge, their team, and their distribution.
And they are going to try to be the winner of the decentralized finance and tokenized stocks. Now, I personally believe that the stock market is going to move to 24/7 trading. It's a no-brainer. It's 2026. Let's get into modern times. But I also believe that there is going to be this bifurcated world for much longer than people believe.
There's a ton of people on Wall Street. They don't care about digital assets. They don't care about tokenization. They don't care about stable coins. They got a good thing going and they don't want to disrupt it. And so they're going to keep rocking and rolling on the New York Stock Exchange, on NASDAQ, and other exchanges.
But I also believe that there's a ton of net new people and market participants who they don't care about the legacy world. They want to participate with digital assets, stable coins, and 24/7 trading. And so, as you get that bifurcation in the behavior of investors, you now have two different trading venues.
And the beauty is that the New York Stock Exchange is going to own both of them. And so, in my eyes, the New York Stock Exchange, they don't care where the world actually evolves to. What they care about is that they've got a winning bet on both sides. If we stay in the legacy system and digital assets are all complete nonsense, well, the New York Stock Exchange is going to do great.
But if all of a sudden digital assets become all the rage and the legacy system starts to fall away, the New York Stock Exchange is going to be perfectly positioned to benefit there as well. And so ultimately the innovator's dilemma was smacking these major exchanges right in the face. And the New York Stock Exchange said, "Don't worry, we're going to solve this.
We already were able to navigate the rise of the internet, of mobile, of cloud, and many other technology shifts. Digital assets, it's just another piece of technology that's come onto the scene. the New York Stock Exchange and ICE. They understand that cryptos infiltrated Wall Street, but they're not going to sit around and just allow all of these new people to take their business away.
They're ready to embrace the technology and actually benefit from it. Kathy Wood stresses that this is not about short-term timing, but about positioning for a multi-year transformation where investors who cling to legacy benchmarks risk missing exponential change. In that environment, selectivity and conviction matter more than ever.
Anthony Pompiano closes with a simple idea. If Bitcoin isn't going to zero, it's ultimately going much higher. The path won't be straight, but short-term price moves are noise. Long-term adoption is the signal.
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