저자: 김동관 · 한국인
요약 보기
경기침체 우려와 반도체 업황 둔화에도 반도체는 장기 성장 산업이며, 수요 다변화(데이터센터·전기차·프리미엄폰)로 경기민감도가 낮아지고 있다고 주장. 반도체 ETF(SMH·SOXX·XSD) 비교 및 장기 관점 투자 권유. 단기로는 반도체 법안 지연, 마이크론 가이던스 쇼크, 장비 리드타임 증가 등 부담 요인 언급.
다듬은 글
4. It is time for US Stock Allocation. Even amidst a tough market, let's check today which stocks are worth keeping an eye on. We have with us today Researcher Kim Dong-kwan from the Global Asset Allocation Division at Iwata Securities. Hello. Hello. 4. I am curious to see which stocks you are looking at, so let's take a look.
These are six stocks. So, did you bring these three TFLs today? Yes, that is correct. Regarding management, I only hold the representative semiconductor ETFs, which are relatively significant. You mentioned that investment in the semiconductor industry should be viewed importantly from a long-term perspective, but investment sentiment regarding semiconductors is certainly still quite deteriorated right now.
Do you expect it to improve in the near future? Well, strictly speaking, we cannot immediately say that it will improve dramatically in the second half of the year, but you are taking that into account. Yes, that is correct. Even if we look at it from a 3 to 5-year perspective, it is a very large industry, so I would like to say that it must be paid attention.
Yes, it has fallen so much right now, so is it a country where it is okay to place a bet? First of all... Shall we take a look at this camp first? Yes, that is correct. First, regarding the main differences of these three ETFs—such as the fish, wood, and mediation proposals—you should focus on whether they hold the "three brothers" (referring to the three major stocks).
For example, SMH has a 20% weighting limit and remains at that level. It incorporates 30 stocks and measures performance without a market capitalization standard. In the case of XSD, it uses a moving date assumption method, and you should note the difference that it contains a larger proportion of small and medium-sized stocks, specifically semiconductor companies.
As for management fees, SMH and Access D are the same at 0.35%, while Source has a fee of 0.43%. Are you looking at whether to invest in all three, or do you have a specific preference? Well, basically, the investor's mindset seems important. In the case of Source, since it is the most purchased by Korean investors, it appears to be the most representative and has the largest management posts.
In the case of XSD, those who are paying close attention—specifically those who prefer investing in small and medium-sized stocks— can choose XSD for investment. Therefore, I suggest you carefully examine the three differences and make your investment accordingly. Regarding the introduction of ATFs, the semiconductor industry is currently in a state of significant decline, as it is heavily cyclical and has recently collapsed.
Concerns about a downturn in the semiconductor industry due to the economic recession are emerging, and I am curious to know your outlook for the future. First, if we look at the current issues, the recession issue is becoming a major concern. While the GDP growth rate announced this time was higher than -1.6%, the next release is currently showing a decline of -1%, leading to persistent fears that a recession is technically imminent.
Furthermore, regarding the decline in memory semiconductors in the second half of the year, it is news that investors in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix have likely already encountered. Also, currently within the U.S., this semiconductor support bill amounts to $52 billion. The support bill for the hole is currently facing significant conflict between the Senate and the House, and it has not yet been passed.
Therefore, you should view this as a concern that if this is not resolved—even though there are no midterm elections—it could cause major setbacks. Furthermore, regarding Micron Technology, despite announcing record-high quarterly earnings recently, their next-quarter guidance is falling significantly short of expectations.
They projected revenue of $1 billion, whereas the consensus is based on $9 billion, showing a substantial discrepancy. You should understand that the market is exerting significant pressure on this aspect as well. Additionally, please note that Bitcoin has recently collapsed, causing significant pain to many investors.
Finally, the supply of semiconductor equipment is currently very difficult. Lead time refers to the time it takes to deliver semiconductors; previously, it took about four months for purchasing, but this has increased drastically to two years and six months in just two years. I have mentioned that there is a situation where we are currently unable to issue certificates for semiconductor equipment, even if we wanted to.
Despite this, I would like to explain why semiconductor investment is so important. Micron also stated that the long-term trend is "slaughtering" the market. There has been some talk of a super cycle, but concerns remain high. Do you believe it will return in the future? First of all, semiconductors are extremely important because they are being incorporated into every daily necessity you encounter as the market changes.
It is crucial to see how much the industry's sensitivity to economic fluctuations is resolved. Many experts are currently predicting that the industry's sensitivity to economic fluctuations is continuously decreasing. What is the reason for this? Among those factors, I would like to specifically mention demand diversification.
Basically, we had been under significant pressure regarding the gradual decline in demand for semiconductors used in consumer goods such as PCs, smartphones, and TVs. However, in sectors such as semiconductors, AI, plastics, and autonomous driving, [the industry] continues to With semiconductor demand increasing and consumer goods maintaining a solid high-margin structure, profit margins are very high.
Given this, if semiconductor-related stocks continue to trend upwards across the entire universe, it could present a very positive outlook. From this perspective, looking at Micron through 2025, it is projected that the sector will see the greatest growth in various fields, including data centers, mobile PCs, industrial electric vehicles, and automobiles.
Regarding demand, electric vehicles and data centers are forecast to rise by an average of 20 to 40% annually. Similarly, looking at the data center sector, electric vehicles and industrial goods are expected to grow significantly by over 45% annually on average. Therefore, I can say that the aspect of diversification will continue to emerge.
Furthermore, regarding premium smartphones—specifically the highly high-spec iPhones that you all love—in the past, sales volume The premium figure was roughly only 8%, but you can see that the proportion has now increased to 29%. In terms of the revenue share, which has already surpassed 50% from 46% and is approaching 65%, the continued appearance of these high-spec premium phones indicates that there is a strong demand for high-margin semiconductors.
Since semiconductors are being supplied to various sectors, I do n't think anyone has doubts about their profitability. However, looking at the future outlook is important, isn't it? What perspective is being taken right now? I have brought the leading indicators for the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, namely PS and PR.
If you look at it, the PS is not actually showing a continuous upward trend, as you can see on the left side, while the PR is currently approaching a historical record high. Additionally, there are 30 stocks in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and among them, 24 stocks are showing a downward trend, and 6 have childcare contracts.
It states that... and regarding the upside, despite the fact that it is currently undergoing its first evaluation due to the "Food & Drink" (48.8%) bankruptcy, and despite the fact that there are many institutions recently significantly lowering their target prices, I would like to say that this is a business that must be watched from a long-term perspective, given that there are buy or incubation options.
I will proceed with point 4. Today, you have brought three points regarding semiconductor ATFs. Although the stock price trend has been poor recently, it will be important from a long-term perspective. You have highlighted investment in the semiconductor industry, and I hope you find this helpful. Thank you for your hard work today on the study of global asset allocation in the securities sector. I have summarized your points.
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