저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 Nvidia 실적 이후 시장이 광범위하게 확장(rotation)되며 소형주가 수혜를 입을 것이라 주장한다. 연준이 실질금리가 높다고 인식해 인하에 나서면 소형주(Russell 2000, 중간 PER 10.7배 vs S&P 약 17배)에 리레이팅 여지가 크다고 본다. Nvidia는 선행 PER 26배로 부담스럽지 않아 장기 매수 대상으로 유지한다. 단기 리세션은 부정적 변수로 언급했다.
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do you expect it to happen in isolation with the small caps is what I'm getting I know that nvidia's done that some other stocks have done that themselves but if you're talking about all of the small you know the small caps and as an index moving up that much what do these other things do well I think that a 40% move in small caps doesn't mean the rest of the market goes down I just think that going to highlight that the market is broadening which is something we all expect but it's also basically doing a risk reward analysis which is look I I think if you can get 18% earnings growth and pay 10 times earnings perhaps that's a good risk reward and and I think money that's on the sidelines or people who've been thinking bonds are going to be and cash is a place you want to stick for the next five years but if the FED starts cutting they're going to look for places where there's good risk reward and I think that's small caps do you me do you need dramatic cuts for that thesis to pan out are there other potholes in the road that you see that that threaten your thesis well uh a recession would be negative um I don't think the FED has to make major cuts it actually just has to I think the market narrative that would be the best for small caps is the belief that real interest rates are too tight now you know 5 and a half per versus inflation trending towards two and getting rates back down to a neutral rate of 3% if the market believes that they don't need the cuts to be front and loaded but they have to believe we're going back towards neutral I think that'd be a huge Catalyst for small caps Nvidia a Titan in the world of technology has captured the imagination of investors with a seismic shift in the stock market that set tongues wagging with a jaw-dropping market capitalization of $3.6 trillion it now holds the title of the world's largest company and the buzz doesn't stop there thanks to skyrocketing demand for its data center gpus Nvidia has not only sustained its momentum but B Ed its Financial stature remarkably over the past 2 years as we approach the eagerly awaited Financial results for nvidia's fiscal 2025 third quarter on November 20th anticipation is mounting Jensen hang CEO of Nvidia further fueled the excitement during a CNBC interview teasing the Monumental potential of the company's Blackwell architecture a revelation that has fans and Industry insiders alike on the edge of their seats so what exactly makes this new architecture a GameChanger and how will nvidia's upcoming earnings report solidify its place at the Pinnacle of stock market triumphs welcome back everyone to investra okay now let me ask you about uh more about Mega caps and about the consumer how important not necessarily just to small caps but to the whole Market narrative will Nvidia earnings next week be uh well nid is really important because it's underpinning really what is driving driving the US economy which is a real push towards productivity uh using basically digital tools and automation that's a very important defl disinflationary Trend and of course the US companies all of the big ones are all in the US I mean it's a global phenomena that benefits us companies so I think it's incredibly important uh but Nvidia you know trading at 26 times forward earnings isn't that demanding a stock either so it's not like I would say sell Nvidia to buy small caps I think Nvidia is still a long-term buy the world is a Gog at the transformative power of nvidia's new Blackwell GPU architecture picture this a GPU with 30 times the AI inference speed of its predecessor the h100 which itself was no slouch what does this mean for businesses simply put a massive boost in cost efficiency imagine a reality where the loftiest AI models are within reach for a myriad of developers and businesses and not just the tech behemoth this is not Fiction it's the tangible promise of Blackwell ever the humorist one industry Insider quipped if gpus were magic beans Nvidia Would Be Jack scaling this Monumental bean stock and scaled it has attracting substantial attention from industry Giants take Microsoft rumored to be the largest acquir of Blackwell gpus the tech giant recently declared an eyew watering 20 billion in capital expenditures for its fiscal 2025 first quarter with a lion shared devoted to AI infrastructure a figure that Towers over many Tech Ambitions Amazon not one to be outdone has channeled 75 billion this year alone into AI focused Ventures meanwhile meta platforms has reserved a cool $40 billion for its AI infrastructure these moves underscore nvidia's gravitational pull in the tech univershat's what's your mark your reaction to how the market is processed and video's numbers it uh of course fell initially in the pre-market yesterday morning it was doing all right and then it did did close more meaningfully down by the end of the session yesterday well I I think Nvidia is one of these stocks that has become part of like a stock market lore almost everyone has a position and I don't think the results and the earnings changed anyone's Minds about Ai and the central Ro it's playing in in both Global productivity but also nvidia's role but it I think the selloff tells you that a lot of good news was priced in I think that's why uh the stock fell it didn't take the broader Market down I think that was kind of a a positive uh outcome and I think I think it just shows you that there's room for a lot of rotation and and I think that it's revealing that small caps is one of the groups benefiting from that rotation nvidia's fiscal 2025 second quarter was a blockbuster with $30 billion in Revenue a 122% year over-year increase analysts are sitting up and taking notice Piper Sandler even lifted nvidia's price Target from $140 to $175 naming it its top large cap pick the demand for Blackwell is described as insane by nvidia's Jensen hang with shipment soaring it's the technological equivalent of being swept off one's feet as inventory moves faster than hot cakes with all eyes on the upcoming third quarter Financial results speculation continues to swirl if past patterns or any guide Nvidia might once again outperform expectations making Blackwell the torchbearer of this success stor let's talk about that rotation Tom and the extent to which there's still a long way to go if you're looking at the valuations as some of those sectors that haven't done so well in recent months uh and Years or or whether things have bounced enough across the board that you start to get a little bit concerned about valuations for the entire Market not just the nvidias of this as well um yeah valuations are definitely something our clients are asking us about because uh you know the equity markets have been rising for several years but the idea of a rotation I I think is grounded on a couple of things one is that the fed's rate path is lower and that benefits cyclical stocks and small caps and we know there's also a lot of cash on the sidelines and investors drisk uh because of you know the the Yen crisis and and just general concerns about the summer and so I I think the Nvidia uh results plus the FED in September is really the Catalyst that it's going to get some investors to actually follow through with the rotation so I think we're early cuz for instance small caps I know people think they're expensive but the median PE of a Russell 2000 stock is still 10.7 times Ford earnings that's compared to almost 17 times for the S&P so the the small caps have a lot of room for multiple expansion as in Nidia gears up to divulge its third quarter Treasure Trove it's hard not to feel a thrill there's a persuasive case for NVIDIA being not just an investment but a statement of faith in the AI Revolution the stock market May EB and flow but in Nvidia investors see a shimmering constant an opportunity to ride the waves of unprecedented technological growth Piper Sandler's resounding endorsement coupled with nvidia's unassailable Market position makes a compelling argument for investment looking ahead forecasts suggest that Nvidia will likely remain a stalwart of stock market success a beacon for The Adventurous investor so with Nvidia poised on the brink of another triumphant earnings report where do your thoughts lean in this electric atmosphere is NVIDIA shaping your investment strategy join the conversation let's delve into the future of technology togeth
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