저자: DanIves · 외국인
요약 보기
Dan Ives는 엔비디아가 AI 3년차 8~10년 buildout의 중심이며 블랙웰 수요가 공급을 크게 웃돈다고 주장. 현재 20배 선행 PE는 역사적 저점 수준이고 빅테크 capex(약 3250억달러)는 오히려 가속 중이라 딥시크 우려는 과도하다고 봄. 4~5조달러 시총 도달을 전망하며 자사주 매입을 제안. 양자컴퓨팅 등 신사업도 긍정적으로 평가.
다듬은 글
I think it's going to be a watershed event I mean I think when you hear from the Godfather of a Jensen he's going to lay out what the man looks like for Blackwell and ultimately I mean right now we believe 15 to1 demand the supply you know in terms of what we see for Blackwell it's about not just things like in terms of Ruben and others physical AI autonomous Robotics and I hear everything that Josh is saying but in my opinion we are in year three of an 8 to 10e buildout for the AI re Evolution and that's why it's so front and center what we're going to hear from The Godfather of Jensen you know in San Jose all right so Nvidia shares have now pulled back notably not as much as other Mega cap technology stocks have but a lot of it was driven by kind of the recent quarterly reports that have come out the fundamentals are very much intact nobody's going to dispute that but the question is relative to expectations and that's where Nvidia ran into some problems with its most recent numbers they're still growing and by a rapid clip but why are analysts then so much more bullish where they cannot meet exactly or exceed a lot the expectations that are out there I think it's a digestion period I mean I think we go through the next four quarters you're going to ultimately say I think Street numbers are going to come up 15 20% over the next few years I think buy side definitely is very negative here but this all plays out I think it's a stock that has a two in front of it because the AI Revolution remember this by Deep Sea con terms of everything we saw there with some of the Cinderella story in terms of some of the the fears in terms of Nvidia on the chip side there's one chip in the world fueling this it's Nvidia this is the cheapest you have been able to buy Nvidia stock since October of 2022 before the launch of chat GPT which set off the AI era so Nvidia in the AI era as the leading player in AI has never been a better bargain than it is today the stock is uh the company has 52% growth expectations for this year it's now a 20 forward PE how insane is this market right now where they would rather buy Walmart at 30 some odd times earnings than this at 20 Walmart if they're lucky might be growing single high single digits this year I'd say in 25 years doing this it's I can name so I count the times that have been almost the generational opportunities relative to what the Stock's doing that's right I think nid is think this is a a generation because my view is we're going to be talking about Nvidia 4 trillion 5 trillion over the coming years despite near-term you know in terms of political export controls everything else that's where this is going we're talking about two trillion of AI cback next three years there's only one red phone that you could call to get those chips it's it's you want to laugh you know you know what you know what he should announce at uh GTC how about a buyback I think that would probably do more good than any technology it's really at this value valuation should be shrinking the float all right so speaking of the valuation kind of construct the Paradigm that we're in right now Joe if you look at the way that it's been described on the forward basis and the and the valuation that's out there there there is a a balancing that's happening right now about whether or not it is the fact that the analyst consensus the forward earnings expectations for NVIDIA are relatively off or whether it's the price that you pay for those earnings that is relatively off do you think though that this is the equilibrium point at which the analysts are more correct when you project earnings out in the next year and is the market valuing those forward projections properly so unfortunately I have to give you an answer that is is not succinct and it is dependent upon the capex and the question ultimately becomes does the macro environment begin to arrest the capital spending on the bar on the part of those big players and if in fact that unfolds over the coming year then when you think about where Nvidia is I think it could has the potential to cheapen its valuation all right Dan if that is the case the people who spend the most money with Nvidia are hyperscalers these are the most ginormous balance sheets in the history of corporate world what does the capex picture change by how can it be affected by a hypothetical weakening macro backdrop yeah and Joe brings up awesome point I just tell you come back from Asia it's actually accelerate in terms of we see about 70% of that CB back's actually accelerating because it's an arms race in other words you have 325 billion that's going to be spent by big Tech 100 billion year of a year you have you don't even have the sovereigns you don't have the rest of the world this is something where I actually think the street is underestimating CB backs and I get the point in terms of worries about macro I actually see more and more big Tech accelerating in terms of because this as this arms race plays out whether it's m&a from we see alphabet and others that no one is pausing they're actually accelerating I think that's going to be the key I think that's something you're going to hear from Jensen you know on stage attention grabbing news in the stock market Nvidia a game changer in the AI industry has seen a phenomenal 360% surge in its shares in the past 3 years exciting developments and challenges lie ahead for NVIDIA steering it stock in a New Direction Dan IES is excited about what's to come and shared some interesting news in his recent interviews let's dive deeper into the world of chips Ai and potential growth strategies welcome back everyone to invest ocracy what did you learned from GTC in Nvidia uh yesterday in Jensen Wong uh Dan uh please correct me if I'm wrong it seemed like it was generally kind of an update on themes we mostly knew about and some pretty impressive numbers of how fast their chips are running and but uh was there anything uh additional well I think well first of I think being a GTC in terms of our team there I mean the developer feedback it's off the charts so I think it all comes down to the use cases and those are exploding in terms of Jensen's keynote I think it's really showing the Holy Growl is physical AI autonomous robotics qu talking about Ruben some other sort of initiatives down the road but look they really they own AI when it comes from a chip perspective and I think that is sort of playing the flag showing that like despite all the fears some of the deepsea wounds and everything else that's sort of Jensen out there you know hearing from The Godfather of AI himself saying look it's our world everyone else paying rent okay all right so uh Nvidia then in terms of Market leadership I mean this thing trades at PEG ratio below one so the valuation argument is not a bearish one right oh it's I mean bullish anything i' say it's cheap I mean relative like when you look at it if you believe and all of our work shows that this is we're in year three of a 10year buildout Nvidia is cheap now I continue to think this is going to be a four trillion and eventually $5 trillion Mark cap and that's that's our view I think you can you got to take the noise out mean you have talk about it over the years I think in periods like this you you got to look at the winners and where they're training where the names tone over the past years nvidia's story has seen growth challenges and dreams fulfilled the rise of Nvidia in the AI landscape has been nothing short of legendary especially after the recent GTC conference propelling it to the Forefront of technological innovation as companies Embrace AI Solutions Nvidia stands as a beacon of reliability with its Hardware being the lynchpin for training and running massive language models but challenges emerge as companies eyeing diversification strategies and custom chip designs set the stage for potential disruptions in nvidia's chip dominance investors should tread carefully observing the unfolding chapters of nvidia's Journey and waiting for more definitive signals to guide their investment decisionhen it comes to Ai and I just think this is a stock that's going to have a two in front of it over the next 9 12 months and and that continues to be the buying opportunity I think the street is sort of misinterpreting uh what I believe is just so bullish in terms of the longterm hour right now it has a one in front of it and it's down by close to 8% for the month of March and Dan I think for many people out there it still hasn't recovered from the deep seek revelation of the last two months or so there seems to be some scarring here what did the CEO do to counter some of those concerns in his address yesterday I mean I think it's really what Jensen's talking about is that every large company as they're looking whether it's GM to to across Enterprises as they're looking to build out there's only one doing that and it's Nvidia and I think that's something where I agree there is some still scarring from deep seek I continue to view that ultimately that's bullish as the models get cheaper for the longer term sort of AI Revolution thesis but but I think you're seeing cap X accelerate it's not diminishing and I think that that's something that we'll see as it plays out over earnings but I think investors just need more and more confidence that there's not cracks you know really in this AI and I I think it's actually the opposite Dan let's zoom out we've been talking today and and John rais this earlier that something else is going on when you look beneath the surface of the S&P 500 or the NASDAQ it really is the High Flyers of last year that are leading the way lower and haven't been able to recover even when there's been positive news we talk about Nvidia and yesterday's surprising reaction to the conference but also Tesla and how those shares have absolutely been pummeled can you understand what's behind some of the shift away from from Big Tech and in particular why certain names have gotten so disproportionately beaten up yeah just I think Lisa there's three things I think first it's a perfect storm I think it starts off one you don't know the rules of the game right in terms of geopolitical tariffs especially on the export controls you're seeing a risk off I think globally on US stocks and I think that's something that we're seeing play out because investors are just worried that you're going to see some sort of cracks when it comes to export controls and tariffs related to chips two I think you are seeing more play like the Babas you're seeing that China Tech trade you're starting to see more diversification worrying about sort of the growth concerns in terms of the macro and the third is you said like look you're not going to have true valuation support here you need to show the actual growth and I and I think as we get into next few quarters that's the aha moment I think similar as we've seen with Nvidia and paler and others but we're in this sort of Gap here where every news it's sort of going to be viewed negatively and you just see such Jitters I I think it's probably as nervous as I've seen Tech investors probably going back to some of the co days however amidst these challenges nvidia's rush into the automotive and robotic segments hints at a diversified future with the rise of self-driving vehicles and exponential growth forecasts in these sectors nvidia's revenue streams could transform while the generative AI industry remains a Cornerstone of nvidia's narrative gaming AR and VR present untapped opportunities for the company to explo think this was a significant enough event to save these stocks from these declines that we've seen and at bare minimum I mean the volatility has been head spinning it has uh these things move uh plus or minus 10% on a given day whether or not Jensen's shining a spotlight on the space uh or not um I I taking a step back though and this is really the only corner of tech that Jensen Wong arguably the most important CEO in the world decided to take uh two hours out of his GTC conference this week and and basically focus on uh you know to put together a Quantum day with three panels including you know folks from AWS and and Microsoft Azure talking about the future of the space I mean and like Kate said you know basically did aeha kulpa for his January comment so the fact that you know if this is still a microscopic space in terms of the size of these companies and their market caps in relation to a three trillion doll company like Nvidia but the fact that he's focused on this he's setting up a research Quantum research lab in Boston um you know this is an important area and that's and when he talks about what are we going to be talking about next year at our Quantum day and what evidence are we going to see and all that kind of stuff that's very very bullish I mean I hear you when you talk about the the mayaula um the cynic in me says come on you're telling me the same CEO who two months ago said of these stocks well this is way off into the future sure let's not get crazy excited I'm paraphrasing obviously and it caused those stocks to absolutely fall out of bed all of a sudden now at their event talks them up and we should view this as some significant change in the timeline of quantum Computing I mean come on well I guess you know why do it you know if he if if his goal Scott was to crush the these guys out of existence why why why do it why invite them why have them on um you know when I when I uh was chatting with you after those comments in January about it I said it was a little curious to me because um you know as great as Nvidia is it still comes from a classical Computing uh framework in terms of how it's how it's developed gpus are obviously the most advanced version of that classical Computing framework but Quantum Computing is sort of The Next Step so inherently it's a threat to Nvidia and that's why you know keep keep your enemies closer I you know I think it he's he's wanting to study the space he's wanting to know kind of like how can we be involved in this in case there is this massive shift as sort of like a Next Generation step for AI and and gpus down the road so if if he was just you know wanting to kind of put them out of existence why bother to partner with them investing is not merely a numbers game it's a narrative of calculated risks and strategic moves as we reflect on nvidia's trajectory one question lingers is now the time to seize the opportunity and invest in nvidia's promising future with forecast predicting growth in diverse sectors nvidia's strategic positioning in key Industries and investors hopeful for bullish comebacks the stock paints a picture of potential Prosperity so what's your take on Nvidia and its fascinating journey in the tech realm and storie
Comments 0