저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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관세 불확실성 속 반도체·AI 단기 변동성은 크지만 AI 인프라 투자는 지속되고 장기 추세는 유효하다는 취지. 서버 조립의 멕시코 이전, USMCA 면제 등으로 관세 영향 완화 가능성 언급. 엔비디아 등 밸류에이션이 상당히 조정되었으나 추가 변동성 예상. 장기적으로 AI 추세에 강세 견해 유지.
다듬은 글
What are you hearing? Data center slowdown. Yes. Uh servers, the chips may not be tariffs, but the servers come from Taiwan, a lot of them. The servers come from other places. It's going to increase cost, right? Everything's too expensive. Uh look, Nvidia has this 232 military exemption, but that doesn't mean that Nvidia doesn't isn't wrapped in something that Exactly.
Exactly. So, what we're doing is we're trying to figure out, okay, who's wrapped in it? who has to worry. Uh I think this Vietnam thing is very Here's a way to think of this. You're if you're not you may not tar the flour and the sugar and the water, but if you're tariffing the restaurant that's making the food, what's the difference?
No, it doesn't matter. Says still hard to tell where things are going to bottom out given all this volatility. Joining us now is Bernstein's chip analyst Stacy Rasgen. Stacy, always good to have you. Uh I'll start with what I assume is a question you're probably getting from a lot of clients. I mean, it's not, you know, we know that chips themselves aren't getting tariff, but it's so many of the things they go in, whether it's a phone or a computer or a server are.
So, where does this all end up from us? I talked to one CEO of a big company that our viewers know well yesterday. He said, "No way I'm going to be able to give guidance." Yeah. Yeah. It'd be very interesting. By the way, earning season starts in another week or two, so I can't imagine anybody really wants to stick their neck out in this environment.
and and you sort of alluded to to the issue like the the direct impacts on semis are relatively easily easy to calculate but they're they're not very big and as you mentioned you know the that they've been mostly exempted and frankly we don't import a ton of raw semiconductors into the US anyways most semiconductors enter the US inside other things inside PCs inside smartphones inside servers um and so the the bigger risks are are indirect demand destruction broader macro I mean if we go into a recession semis are cyclical pretty macro driven and they tend not to do well in in poor economic environments.
So those are the kinds of things that are very difficult to size um you know both for me as well as for you know the companies themselves and visibility is going to be very very low right now but you can calculate some of the potential impact. So for example PCs and smartphones I know where that stuff's coming.
I I can calculate a rough tariff and be before they added 50% on on China that tariff would have been roughly 40% probably on PCs and and and smartphones and those sorts of things. There are a few silver linings by the way like so one of the big concerns that people have has been AI servers and this worry that you know oh my god do the US hyperscales do their capex budgets just have to go up 50% um or you just anticipated my next question so what's the answer here what's the cost going to be in the data center for example potentially as it turn as it turns out a lot of these the the AI servers as well as some of the other comput hardware that's used in the US actually comes from Mexico and there's been a carveout for the USMCA the the US Mexico Canada agreement.
Um my read of the situation suggests that stuff coming from their AI servers and things that are that are put together in Mexico are tariff-free. Um and there's that that mix is it's already probably 60% of the US volume of those types of servers is coming from Mexico. Um some of the suppliers like Foxcon are already building more plants in Mexico.
My guess is that mix goes up and so there are some workarounds. There's some other things like if if the US content of some of these devices um coming from other places is above 20%. Then the US content would not get tariffed. And so you could imagine ways to increase the US content of things coming from other areas before they come into the US.
And so there are some workarounds and I'm sure everybody in the industry they they've got their their smart people trying to figure out how to navigate all of this. But but it is it is uncertain. It's going to be a little while before before we know. But there it's not necessarily doomsday. hopefully at least on on on the AI server front.
Uh yes. So what about long-term? I mean everything you're talking about is like in the next few quarters. Longterm if you think the future is still Gen AI, how much damage has been done to these stocks from a valuation perspective and where would you buy? Well, I mean I mean valuations are down across the but in fact there's plenty of stocks that are that are down even even more than stocks like Nvidia or or Broadcom.
So it's not necessarily just a GI thing. I do think though over the long term the Gen AI and the broader trend toward toward artificial intelligence is still a real trend and if anything it's going to be more and more important. So I do think that trend is there. Um what we need to see over the near to medium term is does a lot of this uncertainty cause companies both in AI and in semis and frankly like everywhere else does it cause you know capital plans to be re-evaluated in the midst of uncertainty.
I I don't know. I think there'll be more volatility in in in the near to medium term clearly, but over the long term, I I think AI is still real. I think it's still really important. I think it is still a priority in in in the US, and I'm still pretty bullish longterm on on on the general trajectory and prospects for for AI.
Get ready to dive into the world of stocks with a gripping piece of news that's shaking up the market. Today's spotlight is on Nvidia, a key player in the tech industry. Stay tuned to learn more about the recent roller coaster ride that Nvidia's stock prices have taken. Welcome back everyone to Investocracy.
Mike, so the AI trade in particular that's rebounding today. You mentioned Nvidia, also Broadcom, Palanteer, Marvel, a number of other chip names surging, outperforming the broader tech complex. Um, they have been among the most beaten down amid looming tariffs, immune to any positive signals over the last few days or last week or so.
today though making up for some of that ground in part because the threat of tariffs hasn't moved capex or AI infrastructure plans in a material way just yet and for businesses that are integrating AI still seen as non-negotiable. Now, Meta reportedly planning a nearly $1 billion data center project in Wisconsin.
There's NVIDIA partner Han High sales rising nearly 25% in the first quarter on resilient AI server demand. Tomorrow, we're going to hear from Google's cloud chief on its plans at an event, but we do already know that the company is planning to distribute its AI more widely and so they too need more compute to do it.
Then there is this memo from Shopify CEO Tobias Luteke making the rounds in tech circles this week where he calls reflexive AI a baseline expectation essentially a new standard operating layer for his company. It was reposted by startup founders, venture investors, Microsoft OpenAI executives all echoing the same message.
use AI or fall behind. Underscoring this idea that the strategic value of AI, it's too high for it to be abandoned or scaled back because of tariffs. But don't call it a comeback just yet. Everyone can be on board to implement AI and build the data centers to power it. But tariffs, they may still represent a wrench in those plans.
And there is also signs of pressure. the information reporting that Oracle is rushing to finish a massive data center for OpenAI before tariffs make the servers and other materials a lot more expensive. So guys, the question it's not over demand, it never really was. It's over supply even more so given the tariffs, how fast, how flexibly, and at what price.
Long-term thesis that may be intact, but the near-term volatility very much still in play. And as you said, we've seen some of these names come off their session highs. Picture this. Amidst all the chaos in the stock market, Nvidia's shares seem to be struggling to keep up with the pace. With a 27% drop in share value this year, it's clear that investors are feeling the heat.
What caused this sudden nose dive in one of the tech giants? Well, it all started with a Chinese startup, Deepseek, claiming to have developed an AI model using Nvidia's older chipsets. This revelation sent shock waves through the market, raising concerns about the demand for Nvidia's latest chip architecture.
The place where there's been, you know, profound weakness certainly lately is the semis. There's also a belief that what was first in, so to speak, is first out. Some of these have traded a little better lately. Now they're caught up obviously in some of the tariff conversation. How do you see that?
So look, I think semis have led, tech has led the downturn. Semis have led the downturn. I think there's been almost too much negativity now in terms of what's going on with AI and the AI infrastructure build. Uh right now we're transitioning from AI models that had very linear types of answers. So you ask GPT a question and it gives you a very linear response.
We're about to go into reasoning models, right? Reasoning models. You ask it a question, it'll remember all the questions that you've asked in the past. It'll also anticipate some of the questions that you're going to be asking. That's the next level of AI that we're about to produce. And we talk about AI agents and all these things.
Jensen more recently, a couple weeks ago said that that kind of model is going to require 100x the amount of compute. And so there's obviously more efficiencies coming from Chinese models and things like that. But there we do think we're still very much in the middle innings of this build, not in the late innings.
And we think that some of the multiples have really retraced to very attractive levels. I appreciate getting your perspective. Thank you for being here. Yeah. Looking ahead, Nvidia's forward PE ratio hints at a potential buying opportunity. While short-term challenges like tariffs may cause fluctuations, the company's long-term prospects remain promising.
With a resilient business model and strong customer base, Nvidia is poised to weather the storm and emerge stronger. . There was already a belief that they dropped the ball related to AI. You can't just fix that overnight. I hear you when you talk about the flex they may have with supply chain issues.
Wall Street Journal reporting earlier today that they could move some um capacity to India, but these things don't happen overnight. Look, I I I think it's a very harsh statement to say that they've dropped the ball on AI. Look, I think they maybe should have been a little bit quicker to respond to it, but most of what we've seen so far is the build out of the infrastructure of AI, and they're clearly don't want to be part of the build out of the infrastructure of AI, but they are going to be there when consumer applications really start to take off.
In conclusion, despite the recent turmoil, now could be the perfect time to consider investing in Nvidia. As the market stabilizes and Nvidia continues to innovate, there's a good chance for the stock to bounce back in style. So, why not seize the opportunity and ride the wave of Nvidia's resurgence?
Keep an eye on the horizon as the future of Nvidia stock promises exciting potential gains for investo.
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