저자: JeromePowell · 외국인
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연준 의장 파월은 관세가 예상보다 커 인플레이션을 높이고 성장을 둔화시킬 가능성을 언급하며 단기 불확실성이 크다고 밝힘. 현재 경제지표(고용)는 여전히 견조하며 연준은 정책 방향을 성급히 정하지 않고 관망 중. 영상은 이를 엔비디아 하락 요인으로 해석하나, 파월 본인은 엔비디아나 개별 종목에 대한 언급이 없음. 영상 내 엔비디아 7.8% 급락과 HSBC 하향 언급은 발언 외 시장 설명.
다듬은 글
Looking ahead, higher tariffs will be working their way through our economy and are likely to raise inflation in coming quarters. Reflecting this, both survey and market-based measures of near-term inflation expectations have moved up. By most measures, longerterm inflation expectations, those beyond just the next few years, remain well anchored and consistent with our 2% inflation goal.
We remain committed to returning inflation sustainably to our 2% objective. Turning to monetary policy, we face a highly uncertain outlook with elevated risks of both higher unemployment and higher inflation. The new administration is in the process of implementing substantial policy changes in four distinct areas: trade, immigration, fiscal policy, and regulation.
Our monetary policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties we face as we gain a better understanding of the policy changes and their likely effects on the economy. It is not our role to comment on those policies. Rather, we make an assessment of their likely effects, observe the behavior of the economy, and set monetary policy in a way that best achieves our dual mandate goals.
We have stressed that it will be very difficult to assess the likely economic effects of higher tariffs until there is greater certainty about the details such as what will be tariffed, at what level, and for what duration, and the extent of any retaliation from our trading partners. While uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected.
And the same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth. The size and duration of these effects remains uncertain. While tariffs are highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation, it's also possible that that the effects could be more persistent.
Avoiding that outcome would depend on keeping longerterm inflation expectations well anchored on the size of the effects and on how long it takes for them to pass through fully to prices. Our obligation is to keep longer run longerterm inflation expectations well anchored and to make certain that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.
We'll continue to carefully monitor the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. We're well positioned to wait for greater clarity before considering any adjustments to our policy stance. It is too soon to say what will be the appropriate path for monetary policy. We understand the benefits of a solid economy where workers can find jobs and inflation is low and predictable.
We also understand that elevated levels of unemployment or inflation can be damaging and painful for communities, families, and businesses. That is why we at the Fed will continue to do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Nearly all analysts are bullish on Nvidia stock, but Jerome Powell of the federal government thinks that the worst is yet to come for the Nvidia stock in the future and after all of these tariffs.
There are concerns about Nvidia's future growth away from the Trump tariffs. But Powell thinks the effect of the tariffs is not yet fully felt. Will his prediction falter? Is there a way out for Nvidia? Welcome back everyone to Investocracy. One business owner told me if there's a hint of a recession, we're cooked.
and he asked me to share that with you. What's your response? Um, so I guess I would say let's start with the fact that the that the incoming data right through this morning's employment report, which admittedly is from roughly a month ago, the week of of March 12, they took the data and it still shows us a solid economy.
Unemployment's still low. Um, I understand the uncertainty that's weighing on people. Um uh you ask about a recession. Um we don't actually u we don't make a probability forecast of how likely it is for there to be a recession, but many outside forecasters do and many of them have raised the likelihood albeit from very low levels.
It's not it's not uh it's not something that that anybody now is forecasting or some people are starting to. Um so I can't there's not much more I can say about that. I I realize that the uncertainty is high. Uh and um you know what we've learned is that the tariffs are are higher than anticipated, higher than almost all forecasters predicted.
We're just we we still don't know where that comes to rest, though, and we're just going to have to see that through. Amidst the whirlwind of doom surrounding Nvidia stock, Jerome Powell reveals that the market has not yet fully felt the impact of the tariffs and that it is going to be worse, especially on Nvidia.
Meanwhile, HSBC's Frank Lee joins the crowd with his decision to lower the stock's rating. Lee shifted from a buy to a hold rating, citing concerns over the factors that have been driving Nvidia's stock growth. . For a while, we we didn't know um what was coming on April 2. Now, we know what came on April 2.
We don't know. There's a lot more to be said about what about how all that shakes out, but that that's we've come through that. And I think you you now know that the tariffs are larger than than people were generally expecting of that much you know now at this point. Um and you'll know more as as you start to see um the effects on the economy.
So you know as as the months go by well it's hard to say exactly when you'll know. But you know clearly that learning process is is ongoing. We're just seeing that these are new policies not just the tariff policies but the other ones as well. They'll there'll be uh you know important fiscal legislation coming up fairly soon.
uh and there'll be regulatory changes, significant regulatory changes. You have to really look at all of that to see what the overall effect will be. So I I can't give you a date, but all of that is now kind of coming into into place at at sort of uh the speed you would expect policy changes to be, and then we'll begin to see the real economic effects as the year goes on.
But again, I can't give you a a really specific date. Is the fiscal legislation, the the tax tax cuts? Well, yes. I mean, I know they're contemplating and we don't comment on fiscal policy, but what I read is that they're contemplating, you know, making the um the tax cuts and jobs act cuts permanent and also perhaps some other things as well.
We we know we wouldn't be we we have sort of a placeholder for that too, but uh that's really not ours to comment on, but that's what that's what I was talking about. Yes. So, I had a question from uh from a friend in Milwaukee who said she has clients that have deals ready to go, businesses that are ready to launch from their garage to a private equity deal and they're just stuck in their garage right now.
How long do you think what do you think the impact of the uncertainty these days will have on the private equity deals? So, again, we're hearing a lot of that. people are just they're just kind of waiting and for clarity waiting for clarity so and I I can't tell you when that that will pass but you know ultimately it will pass you know we'll we know that you know at a certain point we'll know enough to know what the new the uncertainty will decline and we'll be able to see you know with real clarity what the policies are and what their effects are.
So I but for you're right. We hear the same thing from businesses and and from just from people that they're they're kind of waiting and seeing. There's a lot of waiting and seeing going on including by us and that just seems like the right thing to do when at a time of elevated uncertainty. Jerome's statements and Lee's move sent Nvidia's stock tumbling by 7.8% in a single day.
This sharp decline was a stark reminder of how sensitive the market can be to unexpected shifts in sentiment. Lee's rationale for the downgrade focused on the diminishing pricing power of Nvidia and the company's challenges in sustaining its earnings momentum. watching right now? I very famously you look at the CPE and and obviously the CPI and things like that but are there any economic indicators in this moment in these circumstances that you are watching focused on?
Sure. interested in. So the you know the the basic two big data pools are the data around prices and around employment and you know we get in the employment area we get just really it's and that's that's an area where we actually get pretty good data although the survey response rates have been lower nonetheless we get a lot of different data and it's not just unemployment it's participation it's by age group and things like that it's wages it's many many different things uh it's jobs it's quits uh all the job creation quits openings all those things.
So that's one thing on inflation it's we we do we target PCE personal consumption expenditure inflation not CPI and the two are broadly they move in in u they move together but um 25 years ago the the Fed switched to PCE the public looks at CPI it's kind of a little bit of a of a thing but because we think you know uh it's really just a better way to capture the inflation the cost pressures that households and businesses feel we think it's a better measure and And that's what we look at, but they're not that different.
I mean, they're just they look at different measures. Ultimately, they're pretty close together. Those things, you know, on growth, you look at what's happening with consumer spending. The economy is overwhelmingly driven by by by spend by consumer spending. So, you look at how are cons, you know, consumer surveys, how are they feeling, how are they spending.
Sometimes the surveys are very negative, but they keep spending. That happens. That's been happening really for a while. People spent right through uh the pandemic and they spent right through this time of higher inflation. They kept spending and forecasters kept thinking like us kept thinking that that they would that consumption would slow down.
That's that's a really critical thing. After that, business investment is is a big chunk and you look at that and that is also susceptible to sentiment. You know, businesses if they if they don't know what to do, they're not going to do an acquisition. They're going to hold off on building a factory or a plant or hiring people and things like that.
So we look at I mean I could go on for a long time. We look at a lot of data and we try to make sense. We also talk to people who are in the real economy. You know I I grew my my career was mostly in the private sector talking to you know to people who ran businesses. And for me the story doesn't come together until I actually hear from people who are in in the economy doing things and what they're feeling and seeing and then then then it sort of fits together better.
Investors are left pondering the future of the Nvidia stock. Will the company be able to overcome the obstacles highlighted by Lee and Powell and then regain its upward momentum with an average price target of $173.16? There is still optimism among analysts about Nvidia's potential for growth. .
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