저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
엔비디아 급락 국면에서 Tom Lee는 테슬라·엔비디아 펀더멘털이 훼손되지 않았다고 주장하며 GTC 이후 반등 가능성을 언급. 대형 데이터센터 수요(스타게이트 40만 칩, 메타 60만 칩)를 근거로 엔비디아 마진 개선(71→75%) 전망. 0DTE 옵션이 기술주 하락을 압박한다고 진단. 양자컴퓨팅은 엔비디아와 공존 가능하며 일부 양자 종목 보유도 가능하다는 입장.
다듬은 글
Uh, the only green one is Meta up 8%. It was up a lot more. Um, Microsoft negative6, Apple negative -6, Alphabet negative8, Amazon negative8, Nvidia negative7. I think it's more now. Well, if you anchor them to their highs, it's obviously, you know, significantly worse than this. Tesla negative 35, which is a really big deal.
Uh, what's your take on some of the damage here in these in these companies? None of none of which are manufacturing autos other than Tesla? Yeah. I mean, if anyone had owned these before 2024, Yeah. then they're still sitting at huge gains. So, um you know, it's really any new buyers of these are down, but that's really, you know, that'd be like shame on you cuz you bought it um highs.
Yeah. But I I mean, like I look at this and I'd say, you know what, I think Tesla and Nvidia, they're they've been hit the hardest. Do I think that their future trajectory is worse? Like I I I actually think that they still look like great companies and it's not like in Tesla's case. It's not like their competitive position has worsened.
It's probably strengthening. Tesla's competitive position relative to other EV companies. Yeah. And their leadership in let's say that there's like if you ask a techno a technologist what's the next big thing, it's going to say robots. Tesla's, you know, country mile ahead of a lot of people on robots.
So, it's not like being down 35% has changed your competitive position. And we were just listening to Nvidia CEO Jensen Wong making some announcements at Nvidia's annual GTC event. Um, most recently showing off a robot there on stage. Joining us now is Cody Ay, a benchmark company managing director and senior semiconductor research analyst.
Cody, obviously you were watching as well. Um, any big takeaways here? was sort of fleshing out some of the bones of which we were aware of already. Right. I think that's really been more um of the the the nuts and bolts of the keynote was uh really just a bit more details around what we knew was already in the works.
Uh Ultra and Reuben uh and now Fineman uh in 28. Uh that's that was incremental. We have not heard much about that in the past. Uh but uh for the most part it was a lot of incremental details that were relatively small. Cody, you know, I I remember when Nvidia last reported financial results and we had, you know, other smart financial analysts on like yourself, your colleagues on the street and I asked them, hey, okay, what is the next big catalyst for the stock?
And some of them, Cody, you know, told us it was GTC, but I look right now the stock's down about, you know, nearly 2 and a half%. Was it was there something Cody investors were hoping for that they didn't hear today? They were just hoping for more. Um maybe more details. Maybe maybe something about an acceleration of Reuben.
Uh but with Reuben, it looks like uh it's not coming until the second half of of 26. Now um that you know that maybe the street had been more optimistic about its its launch. Uh but uh I think the realism is um is that Blackwell Ultra is going to carry the uh the water here for the next 12 months and then we'll be looking at uh at Reuben beyond that.
Um, but it is uh obviously a bit of a disappointment from street expectations with the stock being off today. Tom Lee recently showcased what investors are not seeing when it comes to the Nvidia stock. He declared that Nvidia is on the brink of making stock market history by potentially becoming the first company to cross the elusive $4 trillion threshold.
This news comes in the midst of an era where expectations in the artificial intelligence sector are shifting from tell me to show me, signaling a transformative phase for the industry. Join us as we delve into the riveting developments surrounding Nvidia. Welcome back everyone to Investocracy. No, I think what's pressuring the chip sector is the endless drag that is Nvidia and people felt that you would have after the Nvidia conference that things have historically done a little well actually they go they do very well going in and it didn't happen and now I mean when I I see what's known as these zero day experior zero day options pressuring Nvidia uh and people don't think that anything could ever happen like that that you couldn't really have a$ 2.8 8 trillion dollar company being pressured by the options market.
But it is no one believes that except for the people who directly trade it and the people who are who clear the options and the heavy pressure on Nvidia is extraordinary. No company can withstand the actual uh repeated machine gunning of a stock uh using these zero day options which we don't factor in nearly enough because a lot of younger people but also a lot of institutions are really focused on driving a stock down.
Look, if institutional buyers came in, they could overwhelm, but right now, Nvidia is the reason why anything that is data center is suspect. I think that's wrong. I can make a case for Nvidia, but I know uh I know a stock that looks bad when it looks bad, and that is the ugliest stock in the in the chart book.
And I get that. That's what's happening. Yeah. I mean, it's down another week, the week of its big GTC conference, which you're at. It's the fourth negative week in the last five. It's fallen 18% of its value since its record close back in January. Even though we get these news bits, Jim, like the Open AI news, I did you see this?
The the first data center complex for the Stargate project, $100 billion project, will have space for 400,000 NVIDIA AI chips in it. Meta's using what 600,000 and the numbers are staggering. You can't build these centers and you can't do AI without Nvidia. And I I think that Jensen Wong, if you actually parse his words, you would have realized the demand is just ridiculous.
Uh he claims that they can make so many more than they could. The yield in the first quarter wasn't that good. I think the numbers are going to inflect. I think the gross margins are going to go from 71 to 75%. But right now, the stock is is gripped with all the negativity that has captured our stock market.
And I think that it's not like you're going to hear from the administration, you know, we're going to, you know, we look at the stock market, we're going to go easy. That's not their thing. Their thing is to say, "We'll even sacrifice the stock market to get what we want, and then we'll look to see what happens." But look, I have no illusions.
The action in Nvidia is pulling down all of tech. With Nvidia's exceptional fiscal performance as the backdrop, let's navigate through the proven data showcasing Nvidia's remarkable growth trajectory. From revenue surges to innovative announcements at the GTC event, every detail reinforces the narrative of Nvidia's unwavering commitment to pushing the boundaries of AI technology.
think this was a significant enough event to save these stocks from these declines that we've seen. And at bare minimum, I mean, the volatility has been head spinning. It has uh these things move uh plus or minus 10% on a given day, whether or not Jensen's shining a spotlight on the space uh or not.
Um I I taking a step back though and this is really the only corner of tech that Jensen Wong, arguably the most important CEO in the world, decided to take uh 2 hours out of his GTC conference this week and and basically focus on uh you know to put together a quantum day with three panels including you know folks from AWS and and Microsoft Azure talking about the future of the space.
I mean and like Kate said, you know, basically did a meaculpa for his January comment. So the fact that, you know, this is still a microscopic space in terms of the size of these companies and their market caps in relation to a three trillion dollar company like Nvidia, but the fact that he's focused on this, he's setting up a research quantum research lab in Boston.
uh you know this is an important area and that's and when he talks about what are we going to be talking about next year at our quantum day and what evidence are we going to see and all that kind of stuff that's very very bullish. I mean, I hear you when you talk about the the Mayulpa. Um, the cynic in me says, "Come on, you're telling me the same CEO who 2 months ago said of these stocks, well, this is way off into the future.
Let's not get crazy excited." I'm paraphrasing, obviously. And it caused those stocks to absolutely fall out of bed. all of a sudden now at their event talks them up and we should view this as some significant change in the timeline of quantum computing. I mean, come on. Well, I guess, you know, why do it?
You know, if he if if his goal, Scott, was to crush the these guys out of existence, why why why do it? Why invite them up? Why have them on? Um, you know, when I when I uh was chatting with you after those comments in January about it, I said it was a little curious to me because um, you know, as great as Nvidia is, it still comes from a classical computing uh, framework in terms of how it's how it's developed.
GPUs are obviously the most advanced version of that classical computing framework, but quantum computing is sort of the next step. So inherently it's a threat to Nvidia and that's why you know keep keep your enemies closer. I you know I think it he's he's wanting to study this space. He's wanting to know kind of like how can we be involved in this in case there is this massive shift as sort of like a next generation step for AI and and GPUs down the road.
So if if he was just uh you know wanting to kind of put them out of existence, why bother to partner with them? Moreover, Nvidia's strategic expansion into the realm of self-driving AI vehicles unveils a new chapter in the company's journey towards diversification and innovation. The collaborative ventures with leading companies like General Motors signify a paradigm shift towards embracing autonomous technologies for future mobility solution I think it was a a reasonably innocuous comment originally um just speaking truth like okay this is going to be amazing but it's years off and the stocks plummeted and now he is out suggesting that well maybe it's not going to be so far in the in the future.
I mean you you don't find anything interesting about that? Yeah. No, I listen I I listen to his comments the way that I would listen and parse the words of a politician, you know, and and sometimes, you know, what they're not saying is how they're seeing it as is as important, right? Yeah. But I'm saying I mean if that if that's you know what what you're going to analogize it to um Okay.
I mean that that that's a little that's a little difficult. Um Well, here's here's what I think. He he was you know what they're what Nvidia is really good at is solving big complex multivariate problems taking tons and tons of data and throwing at it. What quantum is good at now and maybe it'll be different in 15 to 30 years but quantum is really good at solving very limited focused problems.
Now you might say that's not as important that's there's not as much money in that and that's why Nvidia is a three trillion dollar company. But an important limited focused narrow problem is for example cracking into you know RSA level security or Shaw 256 security that protects all crypto wallets around the world that you know like like we just saw with a $1.6 billion hack um recently of of Ethereum on on uh one of the one of the brokers.
So that's what that's focused on. I mean, commerce secretary Lutnik focus, you know, said yesterday, the day before on the all-in podcast, you know, we have to mandate postquantum security cryptography to prevent a quantum hack from a from a foreign nefarious um you know, you know, uh person or state that that's trying to crack into us.
So, that's a limited problem, very profitable, very important, but it's not a 15 to 20 year replicating exactly all these big problems that Nvidia is solving. I think that's where you can have your cake and eat it too. You can be long Nvidia and you can be long some of these quantum names. As we draw the curtains on this enthralling narrative, one thing is clear.
Nvidia is not just a stock. It's a beacon of technological advancement poised to redefine the future with forecasts predicting exponential growth and market dominance. Investing in Nvidia remains a sure choic.
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