저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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트럼프 관세 충격으로 시장이 혼란하지만 Cathie Wood는 관세 협상이 진전되며 시장이 회복할 것으로 봄. GDP 둔화 우려에도 혁신 기술(로봇, AI, 에너지저장 등)이 새 주도주가 될 것이라 주장. 반도체 지수 하락 속 엔비디아를 추가 매수했고, 반도체는 관세 예외 목록에 있어 GPU 수요가 강해 보인다고 언급. 채권시장은 인플레이션 기대 하락을 시사해 기업 실적이 시장 예상보다 견조할 것이라 봄.
다듬은 글
Now what has kept uh the GDP numbers up in the last few years? High-end consumer and government spending and both of those uh are about to change. Uh so uh we think that uh we'll have and in fact they're in the process of changing as as I speak. Uh so I think that it will be the end of the rolling recession and we'll have a clean slate uh to move into the future with what we believe could be a very strong productivity driven uh recovery and then expansion.
um the technologies around which we've based our research and investing uh they've been germinating for 25 years some of them and now they're moving into prime time and when people and businesses are scared they're willing to change the way they do things and we think that will acrue to the benefit of uh robotics energy storage AI I uh uh and and to the convergence among those platforms and the 14 technologies that underlly them.
Uh so uh one of the analogies as as we're going through this market turmoil uh that that I'm using because it does feel very much uh like this. Um this is how it felt when we were going into COVID. And you'll remember there was a month-long um uh deterioration in in the stock market fairly significant fairly uh fairly severe.
And uh at the time we were saying wait a minute who's going to solve this problem? It's the innovators. Who's going to sequence this corona virus? Who's going to use synthetic biology to uh to develop tests so we figure out if we have uh this corona virus? Who's going to develop the vaccine? And of course uh that those companies were in our portfolios.
Uh and I feel the same way now. Um uh a lot of businesses, a lot of consumers are are fearful and uh and they're going to be looking for better, cheaper, faster, more productive, more creative in terms of products and services. uh and and so um we have high hopes that uh that uh when the new leadership shows itself and typically if we are in a a correction or a bare market towards the end is when we see new leadership.
I remember very clearly in 0809 the market did not bottom until March of ' 09 and our strategies started outperforming in November of '08. This is what typically happens as uh as the market looks to uh the new leaders. Uh we know the mag six had an extended stay uh and we think part of that had to do with you know their huge cash cushions and and strong cash flows uh and that's all the market was looking for in a period especially starting in after 0809 that concentration towards the mag 6 uh hit epic proportions uh recently and we don't think they'll be the new leadership.
Some of them will participate for sure. Uh but we do not believe they'll be the new leadership in this market. And we do believe uh that if the market broadens out to more and more stocks than this bull market that we've been in uh which we would have considered with just a few stocks really leading the way to be uh not an ideal or not a very healthy market.
If we get more stocks participating then that's a bull market that we will call healthy. Hedge fund manager Kathy Wood has made some strategic moves in Nvidia and Amazon stocks lately, stirring up the market. Her moves are getting the financial world and its investors excited after Arc Invest ETFs acquired substantial shares from both Nvidia and Amazon along with other notable crypto and tech companies.
Let's unravel the intriguing details that have investors on the edge of their seats wondering about the future implications of Wood's calculated decisions. Welcome back everyone to Investocracy. As we all know, uh the markets are um in in quite a bit of turmoil because of the the tariff, what we thought were going to be negotiations and I still think will be negotiations.
Uh but President Trump has taken uh a very strong uh line of argument here and arguing uh that reciprocity uh is necessary uh to create a a a fair uh playing field out there. Now uh we are all trying to get our heads around how exactly he uh uh calc we know how he calculated uh his version of reciprocity uh but it doesn't seem to make very much sense and uh and things do feel a bit chaotic out there and the markets are are convulsing as as a result there's a lot of uncertainty.
Uh so I've been in Asia for the last couple of weeks and uh as I've been going around and as the tariff uh the intensity of the tariff uh debate has increased um I've I've tried to cut through it in a way uh to to say because I believe this uh we know that Trump wants a legacy. President Trump wants to be one of the greatest presidents ever.
Uh that's his objective and uh he's not going to get there by throwing the economy and into a recession and the stock market into a bare market. Uh and we're verging on both of those now. So, we're getting close to the line in the sand uh where I think his negotiations will kick into gear and will be more productive than what we've heard recently.
Um so, that's the bet. Uh and it's logical if uh if we understand who President Trump is. Uh but as I've been going around um I've said not only is that uh our bet uh but we're we're seeing other reasons for the tide to change here. Uh according to the Atlanta Fed's GDP now uh survey the uh economy dropped contracted almost uh 4% that's real GDP growth sequentially at an annual rate in the first quarter.
That's a big drop. Now a lot of that could be imports uh ahead of the tariffs and surely that is the case. Uh the offset though would be a lot of them ending up in inventory. So there could be a lag there. I don't know. Uh I would say that in the second quarter the likelihood of a negative quarter is increasing here just because of the amount of uncertainty.
Uh well, we know that about 30% of the labor force is probably wondering if um if it's going to keep uh its jobs or the people in the labor force are going to keep their jobs. uh federal uh employees. Uh now that's not the biggest part of government, but there is a trickle down effect to state and local and even to quasi government uh jobs in the health care and education space.
And uh that that would account for 30% of the labor force. uh just uh wondering, worrying, and probably holding back on purchases uh to and until the outcome is clearer. Although the stock market has left many investors cautious, Kathy Wood stands tall as a beacon of financial wisdom. Despite the recent turbulence caused by tariffs, Wood remains undeterred in her pursuit of growth opportunities.
One can't help but admire her confidence, especially after market fluctuations and stock uncertainties. As we delve deeper into Wood's recent acquisitions, it's evident that she is betting big on innovation and disruption. From Nvidia's cuttingedge AI technology to Amazon's dominance in e-commerce, Wood's portfolio reads like a playbook of future trends.
She bought from Amazon shares valuing roughly $9.3 millio. That's right. Uh you know, we don't want investors to be panicking now or rage selling. We've had a a very painful drawd down and I know we're facing this huge uncertainty that may not end tomorrow, might last months. But like the other declines in stocks like the one last year or the ones in 2022, the ones who could endure that short-term pain and and took advantage of those declines are going to have good opportunities.
Yeah. And what if things are different though this time that these tariffs are going to be a favored measure by this president? Whether they're permanent, temporary, months, years, no one really knows. They're not going to be a day. Know that. Yeah. Listen, I across the street, every big bank, every medium-sized bank, I'm sure Fundrat have hosted calls with their clients to discuss what they expect for tariff.
And I've been on a couple of those calls and there's universal complete uncertainty as to what's going to be announced in even 45 minutes time, let alone 45 days time. So I think it's fair to Tom's point and to the professor's point for everybody to have a little bit of fog in their investing outlook right now.
However, I want to take a step back here and just note to the professor's point that that stocks are longived assets. risk assets are long live assets and unless you think a recession is forthcoming and a meaningful decline in earnings is forthcoming then probably your best bet is to ride this out and to your point about EPS 280 right now for the next four quarters is basically unchanged over the last couple of weeks.
Now, you could say that's the ignorance of the market, thinking that this isn't going to matter and someone thinks it does. But it also could be telling you that maybe the tariff headlines which populate all the newspapers aren't quite as bad as the reality on the ground. What about that, Tom? At the end of the day, this entire conversation comes down to what earnings are going to be, and then we have to decide what we're willing to pay for the earnings in in stock prices.
Do you have any level of confidence now that you can see through whatever fog exists? Um, well, I think people are making what I would call like linear adjustments to earnings because they're making a tariff assumption, not assuming that there's companies that can find ways to either get efficiency or they're going to get a currency benefit.
I think earnings are going to change a lot less than people expect. And the the easiest way to see that is the bond market is a very good economist. High yield spreads have not widened dramatically even this week as stocks took it on the gut. And if you look at one year one-year inflation break even so the estimated inflation from one year from now one year ahead that's actually fallen 30 basis points.
So the the bond market is not expecting more inflation. I actually think earnings are going to hold up a lot better than people expect. While the rest of the market may be bracing for impact, Wood remains resolute in her vision, always being known to invest in disruptive growth stocks. She remains optimistic about Nvidia's long-term growth, particularly due to its advanced Blackwell chip.
Um, all this said, and you're very plain in in in the criticism that you have about how this all came out, uh, the severity of it and what the ramifications might be. You're more net long now than you were prior. And you've added to some long positions, including, I'm told, Nvidia, which is ugly today and has not traded well at all lately.
Why was this the moment to add to that stock? True. the the semiconductor index is down 20%. Nvidia, as you know, is down from I think it peak this year at 150. Um, you know, so this stock's down by a third. Remember, we entered today in kind of bomb shelter positioning. We had puts on the on the NASDAQ.
We had tremendous number of shorts. We're sitting in a lot of cash. We only had 50% of our long book even positioned in the market. So, we're dramatically outperforming on a day like today. So, we're going from the bomb shelter to simply uh uh you know, our safety positioning and that means adding about 15% of net exposure and we're adding it in the areas that we believe we're continuing to see secular growth and as you know the growth and the demand for GPUs is off the charts.
You hear it from open AAI, you hear it from Google, you hear it from Elon, you hear it from others. I know there's a debate about that, but that's the side of the debate that we're on. And then although we saw these tariffs announced yesterday, we also saw a list of exceptions. And one of the list of exceptions, wise exception is semiconductors.
And I think the reason that semiconductors are being accepted, is because for us to charge a tariff on our own chips, right, which are fabricated in Taiwan because they can't be fabricated in the United States, we don't have the fabs yet. TSMC, who he mentioned in his speech yesterday, has committed to massive investments as a result of the president's policy in Arizona to build cutting edge fabs.
But right now, he gave him an exception because we know if we increase the cost of these chips that we design to our own companies like Meta, like Google, like Microsoft, like OpenAI, we're only shooting ourselves, right? Because we're in a global race in AI. We can't hamper our ability to win that race.
And so I think that was a wise decision to put them on the exception list. I'm sure he's going to keep a an eye on whether or not the fabs are being built in Arizona, but I think we're we're we're going to net net end up in a much better place in terms of our global supply chain as a result of these decisions.
Um but that's the reason we're buying Nvidia today. We think the demand is off the charts. Um you know there we we we think the negative impact from tariffs is going to be much less than in other areas. But listen, if we end up in the the the teeth of a recession, then even Nvidia at 18 or 19 times earnings might, you know, might not perform that well.
Like we need to avoid a recession in this country. I think it's very bad if we find ourselves in the fall in a recession and we're heading into the midterm elections in 2026. I don't think the president, the administration or Congress uh want to risk a recession uh you know toward the end of this year.
In terms of Kathy Wood's investment strategy, one thing is clear. Opportunity favors the bold. With insights from the brightest minds in finance and datadriven analytics, Woods moves offer a glimpse into the future of tech investments. So, as you ponder the implications of Woods moves on Nvidia and Amazon stocks.
Remember that the market rewards those who dare to dream big. The forecast may be hazy, but the growth potential is clear. So, what's your take on Kathy Wood's stock acquisition amid the market's constant change? and storie.
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