저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Q1 기술주 매도는 펀더멘털보다 공포 주도로 봄. 엔비디아는 GTC에서 개발자 반응이 폭발적이고 피지컬 AI·로봇이 성장 동력이라고 주장. 블랙웰 수요는 공급 대비 15:1로 제시. 엔비디아 PEG 1 미만, 2022년 10월 이후 가장 싼 가격, 향후 1년에 걸쳐 2조 달러 AI 자본지출 전망. 빅테크 capex는 감소하지 않고 가속된다고 봄. 엔비디아 시총 4~5조 달러 도달 전망, 단기 주가 조정은 매수 기회.
다듬은 글
time to bring in Mr Dan Ives managing director of equity research at wedbush Securities on a day like this when it seems pal is going to give us something to go with at least to get us to stop selling Dan the question is which in your list of coverage is the Best Buy right now my opinion this Tech sell off I think lava is more fear driven than fundamental and I think that continues to be what we're talking about I mean in Asia demand to supplies 15 to1 for Blackwell last time we are there it's 12 to1 so so when I look at semis you look at names like can video you look at software in terms of some of the hyperscalers you look at names you know really across what I view is sort of the AI Revolution names paler among them cyber security I think these are the names that you own here playing the theme the theme is not cracking that's more perception okay um what did you learn from GTC in Nvidia uh yesterday and Jensen Wong uh Dan please correct me if I'm wrong it seemed like it was generally kind of an update on themes we mostly knew about and some pretty impressive numbers of how fast their chips are running and but uh was there anything uh additional well I think well first of I think being at GTC in terms of our team there I mean the developer feedback it's off the charts so I think it all comes down to the use cases and those are exploding in terms of Jensen's keynote I think it's really showing the Holy Growl is physical AI autonomous robotics clear talking about Ruben some other sort of initiatives down the road but look they really they own AI when it comes from a chip perspective and I think that is sort of playing the flag showing that like despite all the fears some of the deepsea wounds and everything else that's where of Jensen out there you know hearing from The Godfather of AI himself saying look it's our world everyone else paying rent okay all right so uh Nvidia then in terms of Market leadership I mean this thing trades at a PEG ratio below one so the valuation argument is not a bearish one right oh it's I mean bullish anything I say it's cheap I mean relative like when you look at it if you believe and all of our work shows that this is we're in year three of a 10year buildout Nvidia is cheap I continue to think this is going to be a 4 trillion and eventually $5 trillion Market cap and that's that's our view I think you can you got to take the noise out me you have talk about it over the years I think in periods like this you got to look at the winners and where they're training where the names tone Dan Ives is making the rounds once again with his groundbreaking new prediction for NVIDIA as it closes in on the $4 trillion market cap which he predicts Nvidia will hit sooner than we all think Ives talks about Jensen Wang's vision for NVIDIA and how the stock will surprise holders and investors alike in 2025 before hitting 4 trillion very soon let's dive into Dan ies's fascinating insights and see if he hits yet another home run or has he lost the plot welcome back everyone to invest ocracy I think when you hear from the Godfather of a Jensen he's going to lay out what demand looks like for Blackwell and ultimately I mean right now we believe 15 to1 demand the supply you know in terms of what we see of Blackwell it's about not just things like in terms of Ruben and others physical AI autonomous Robotics and I hear everything that Josh is saying but in my opinion we are in year three of an 8 to 10 year buildout for the AI Revolution and that's why it's so front and center what we're going to hear from The Godfather of a Jensen you know in San Jose all right so Nvidia shares have now pulled back notably not as much as other Mega cap technology stocks have but a lot of it was driven by kind of the recent quarterly reports that have come out the fundamentals are very much intact nobody's going to dispute that but the question is relative to expectations and that's where Nvidia ran into some problems with its most recent numbers they're still growing and by a rapid clip but why are analysts then so much more bullish where they cannot meet exactly or exceed a lot the expectations that are out there I think it's a digestion period I mean I think we go through the next four quarters you're going to ultimately say I think Street numbers are going to come up 15 20% over the next few years I think by side definitely is very negative here but this all plays out I think it's a stock that a two in front of it because the AI Revolution by Remember by Deep seek in terms of everything we saw there with some of the Cinderella story in terms of some of the the fears in terms of Invidia on the chip side there's one chip in the world fueling this it's Nvidia this is the cheapest you have been able to buy Nvidia stock since October of 2022 before the launch of chat GPT which set off the AI era so Nvidia in the AI era as the leading player in AI has never been a better bargain than it is today the stock is uh the company has 52% growth expectations for this year it's now a 20 forward PE how insane is this market right now where they would rather buy Walmart at 30 some odd times earnings than this at 20 Walmart if they're lucky might be growing single high single digits this year i' say in 25 years doing this it's I can name so I count the times that have been almost the generational opportunities relative to what the Stock's doing that's where I think Nvidia is here I think this is a a generation I think because my view is we're going to be talking about Nvidia 4 trillion 5 trillion over the coming years despite near-term you know in terms of political export controls everything else that's where this is going we're talking about two trillion of AI catbacks next 3 years there's only one red phone that you could call to get those chips as the industry experiences seismic shifts and unpredictability Nvidia stands firm ready to outshine the competition Dan IES delves into the data that underscores nvidia's exceptional performance with Q4 Revenue soaring to $ 39.3 billion and a 114% year-over-year revenue increase nvidia's dominance in the AI chip sector is undeniable CEO Jensen hangs foresight on the exponential growth of agentic AI has set the stage for NVIDIA to revolutionize the industry Dan if that is the case the people who spend the most money with Nvidia are hyperscalers these are the most ginormous balance sheets in the history of corporate world what does the capex picture change by how can it be affected by a hypothetical weakening macro backdrop yeah and Joe brings up awesome point I just tell you come back from Asia it's actually accelerate in terms of we see about 70% of that c back actually accelerating cuz it's an arms race in other words you have 325 billion that's going to be spent by big Tech 100 billion year of a year you have you don't even have the sovereigns you don't have the rest of the world this is something where I actually think the street is underestimating CBS and I get the point in terms of worries about macro I actually see more and more big Tech accelerating in terms of because this as this arms race plays out whether it's m&a from we see alphabet and others that no one is pausing they're actually accelerating I think that's going to be the key I think that's something you're going to hear from Jensen you know on stage can I say one thing on this really quickly that I think is important it's not definitely the case that CFOs are going to look at AI related capex as a cost too high in a recession because we're about to have an IPO uh Clara is coming public Clara fired everybody and they're basically operating customer service on AI That's the story that they're telling at their Road show this might be like the post child for how much money a corporation can save in Staffing costs using AI so it's not a foregone conclusion that a weaker economy necessarily means slashing capex they might actually look at this as a way to get through a recession don't miss out and stay ahead of the game when you're you're driving down the floor to go to the final four this is the jump shot you take 100 times out of 100 times buying Nvidia in this market at this multiple and I'll give you two reasons really you from the macro standpoint the survey data has eroded very quickly historically quick and that's the uncertainty that that's within the market right now that's the uncertainty that the administration's brought but I think it's been so quick of an erosion that that it's flushed out and I and you're starting to see that I think Atlanta fed GDP is going to swing back for a number of reasons and the other side is there's a bigger story yes there's competition with the llms and you're going to see new chap chpts drop it's going to be deep seek it be something else there could be another instance but it's bigger here where you're the robotics story you're also looking at the software there's no second this is this is their competitive advantage that's their mode so this is where I want to buy despite fluctuations in stock prices and looming competition analysts remain optimistic about nvidia's future with heavy weights like Amazon and Microsoft in nvidia's corner the potential for sustained growth looks promising Dan this is failing to impress investors what do you think the market signal is sending you I I think it's the wrong sort of take because I think if you look at underlying demand I mean we've talk about it's 15 to one and all you know we have a team that's there and you're seeing demands accelerating and I think when you look at laying out physical AI Ruben autonomous robotics I mean this is essentially Jensen saying it's our world everyone else paying rent when it comes to Ai and I just think this is a stock that's going to have a two in front of it over the next 9 12 months and and that continues to be the buying opportunity I think the street is sort of misinterpreting uh you what I believe is just so bullish in terms of the long-term hourl right now it has a one in front of it and it's down by close to 8% for the month of March and Dan I think for many people out there it still hasn't recovered from the deep seek revelation of the last two months or so there seems to be some Garen here what did the CEO do to counter some of those concerns in his address yesterday I mean I think it's really what jenson's talking about is that every large company as they're looking whether it's GM to to across Enterprises as they're looking to build out there's only one ship doing that and it's Nvidia and I think that's something where I agree there is some still scarring from deep seek I continue to view that ultimately that's bullish as the models get cheaper for the longer term AI Revolution pieces but but I think you're seeing cap X accelerate it's not diminishing and I think that that's something that we'll see as it plays out over earnings but I think investors just need more and more confidence that there's not cracks you know really in this AI thesis and I do I think it's actually the opposite in a market filled with uncertainty One Thing Remains Crystal Clear nvidia's potential knows no bounds the journey to a $4 trillion do market cap beckons promising investors a ride of a lifetim
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