저자: DanIves · 외국인
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GTC를 앞둔 엔비디아 옹호. Blackwell 수요 15:1 초과, AI 인프라 8~10년 buildout 3년차, 현재 20배 선행PE로 역사적 저평가, 2년 내 시총 4~5조달러 전망. 단기 매크로/관세 불확실성은 인정하나 hyperscaler capex 가속을 근거로 강세 유지. 사회자는 엔비디아 매수 기회를 강조.
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nvidia's annual GTC event is underway with CEO Jensen hang the poster child of artificial intelligence set to speak just in the next hour so let's break it all down with wed Bush's Global head of Technology research you know him colorful as ever Dan IES he has an outperform rating and a $175 Target price on those Nvidia shares uh notable bull especially in technology bullish as your outfit right now so let's talk about whether or not Jensen can deliver the goods at GTC this afternoon I think it's going to be a watershed event I mean I think when you hear from the Godfather of a Jensen he's going to lay out what demand looks like for Blackwell and ultimately I mean right now we believe 15 to1 demand the supply you know in terms of what we see of Blackwell it's about not just things like in terms of Ruben and others physical AI autonomous Robotics and I hear everything that Josh is saying but in my opinion we are in year three of 8 to 10 year buildout for the AI Revolution and that's why it's so front and center what we're going to hear from The Godfather of a Jensen you know in San Jose all right so Nvidia shares have now pulled back notably not as much as other Mega cap technology stocks have but a lot of it was driven by kind of the recent quarterly reports that have come out the fundamentals are very much intact nobody's going to dispute that but the question is relative to expectations and that's where Nvidia ran into some problems with its most recent numbers they're still growing and by a rapid clip but why are analysts then so much more bullish where they cannot meet exactly or exceed a lot the expectations that are out there I think it's a digestion period I mean I think we go through the next four quarters you're going to ultimately say I think Street numbers are going to come up 15 20% over the next few years I think buy side definitely is very negative here but this all plays out I think it's a stock that has a two in front of it because the AI Revolution remember this by Deep seek in terms of everything we saw there with some of the Cinderella story in terms of some of the the fears in terms of Nvidia on the chip side there's one chip in the world fueling this it's Nvidia this is the cheapest you have been able to buy Nvidia stock since October of 2022 before the launch of chat GPT which set off the AI era so Nvidia in the AI era as the leading player in AI has never been a better bargain than it is today the stock is uh the company has 52% growth expectations for this year it's now a 20 forward PE how insane is this market right now where they would rather buy Walmart at 30 some odd times earnings than this at 20 Walmart if they're lucky might be growing single uh High single digits this year I'd say in 25 years doing this it's I can name so I count the times that have been almost the generational opportunities relative to what the Stock's doing that's where I think Nvidia is here think this is a a generation because my view is we're going to be talking about Nvidia 4 trillion 5 trillion over the coming years despite near-term you know in terms of political export controls everything else that's where this is going we're talking about two trillion of AI catbacks next three years there's only one red phone that you could call to get those chips it's it's you want to laugh you know you know what you know what he should announce at uh GTC how about a buyback I think that would probably do more good than any technology it's really at this valuation should be shrinking the float Dan IES has had enough and he can't stay silent any longer about this recent Nvidia crash it seems that despite the many Innovations and promises that Jensen hang is declaring for all of us not all that Glitters Is Gold and the market is responding in a harsh way let us explore what Nvidia did how Dan Ives is analyzing it with an eye to the Future and what the future generally holds for NVIDIA welcome back everyone to invest ocracy all right so speaking of the valuation kind of construct the Paradigm that we're in right now Joe if you look at the way that it's been described on the forward basis and and the valuation that's out there there there is a a balancing that's happening right now about whether or not it is the fact that the analyst consensus the forward earnings expectations for NVIDIA are relatively off or whether it's the price that you pay for those earnings that is relatively off do you think though that this is the equilibrium point at which the analysts are more correct when you project earnings out in the next year and is the market valuing those forward projections properly so unfortunately I have to give you an answer that is is not succinct and it is dependent upon the capex and the question ultimately becomes does the macro environment begin to arrest the capital spending on the bar on the part of those big players and if fact that unfolds over the coming year then when you think about where Nvidia is I think it could has the potential to cheapen its valuation all right Dan if that is the case the people who spend the most money with Nvidia are hyperscalers these are the most ginormous balance sheets in the history of corporate world what does the capex picture change by how can it be affected by a hypothetical weakening macro backdrop and Joe brings up awesome point I just tell you come back from Asia it's actually accelerate in terms of we see about 70% of that c back's actually accelerating because it's an arms race in other words you have 325 billion that's going to be spent by big Tech 100 billion year of a year you have you don't even have the sovereigns you don't have the rest of the world this is something where I actually think the street is underestimating CeX and I get the point in terms of worries about macro I actually see more and more big Tech accelerating in in terms of because this as this arms race plays out whether it's m&a from we see alphabet and others no one is pausing they're actually accelerating I think that's going to be the key and I think that's something you're going to hear from Jensen you know on stage can I say one thing on this really quickly that I think is important it's not definitely the case that CFOs are going to look at AI related capex as a cost too high in a recession because we're about to have an IPO uh Clara is coming public mhm Clara fired everybody and they're basically operating customer service on AI That's the story that they're telling at their Road show this might be like the poster child for how much money a corporation can save in Staffing costs using AI so it's not a foregone conclusion that a weaker economy necessarily means slashing capex they might actually look at this as a way to get through a recession I would say that when you're you're driving down the floor to go to the final four this is the jump shot you take 100 times out of 100 times buying Nvidia in this market at this multiple and I'll give you two reasons really you from the macro standpoint the survey data has eroded very quickly historically quick and that's the uncertainty that that's within the market right now that's the uncertainty that the administration's brought but I think it's been so quick of an erosion that that it's flushed out and I and you're starting to see that I think Atlanta fed GDP is going to swing back for a number of reasons and the other side is there's a bigger story yes there's competition with the llms and you're going to see new chap chpts drop it's going to be deep seek it's going be something else there's going to be another instance but it's bigger here where the robotics story you're also looking at the software there's no second this is this is their competitive advantage that's their mode so this is where I want to buy as the curtains rose on nvidia's latest developments at the GTC aai conference the market was in for a roller coaster ride as the stock took an unexpected dip despite Jensen hang's detailed Revelations about Blackwell and Reuben chips AI advancements and a new col collaboration with General Motors Nvidia saw a 3.43% drop much to the dismay of investors who were anticipating a bullish ru every company I speak with they say two things one using AI has become much more efficient think about deep seek it's much cheaper to run now than it ever has been but their demand is up because people are finding new ways to apply this technology and it's finally making its way into the public that it wasn't in the past few years so that standpoint uh it really is a sunny outlook for NVIDIA and Tesla can capitalize that on that as well well both from a robotic standpoint and self-driving and Jensen Wong as you can see there is taking the stage at their GTC event for his keynote speech doing a little crowd work and then perhaps playing a short video This Will Go On as Christina mentioned for potentially over an hour so we won't bring you the whole thing live but every time we get headlines that hit the tape and we watch the stock moves of course we'll be sure to bring that to you um and James is there anything that he could say here to change your mind no I mean I think nid is a fantastic company he's going to talk the demand up everything is great um as it relates to the longer term opportunities but right now there's just too many unknowns for us to go okay n is going to be the number one position in our uh portfolio and uh we got to get through the economic uncertainty uh to be able to do that because the thing about these companies is that you can be on Revenue marginally you can be in line but that's not good enough right now because you do have air in those valuations and unless you can say with a high degree of certainty that you're going to beat a large margin on revenue and there's upside to that you have risk of valuation uh contraction and that's what we're trying to avoid right although I take the point that um uh Josh Brown and others have made James where look if companies are looking to save for instance on labor if the environment is uncertain but they know that they can invest in Ai and kind of become more efficient that way could it actually be less of a headwind for a stock like Nvidia than we presume potentially I mean look they're at 25 26 times earnings right now it's not an egregious multiple I mean we're still in the stock it's just really comes down to a question when you think about it from a portfolio context you know how much weight do you want on the duration higher higher growth type names that can get hit disproportionately on a broader macro based selloff um versus more stable names it's just that fine-tuning that that balance within the portfolio to manage the risk over the current cycle but um staying cognizant of the fact that the growth rates are still there and should still be there and we should hear that from Jensen today but just over the next we have tomorrow to get through we tariffs April 2nd you know there's just we got to get through the next couple of weeks it's clear that Nvidia has been facing a bumpy road with a significant decline in market capitalization and a trailing price to earnings ratio hitting a 2-year low as experts delve into the reasons behind this downfall factors like interest rate sensitivity trade tensions and Market Corrections come to light painting a complex picture of the current market scenario think investors want the bigger picture here um sort of for his perception of Chip demand and kind of call it the medium term when there's a lot of uncertainty around where the administration might go and cracking down further on their export controls to China or kind of looking at that Singapore Revenue Center and trying to figure out or or ask the company to answer exactly what's going on there yeah you don't want uncertainty if you're in big Tech clearly there's been a lot of uncertainty at the beginning of this year and we've seen a big decline Nvidia this year is down 14% already and you're right looking at export controls and examining Singapore probably isn't going to be good for the company because the conventional wisdom now is a lot of those chips in Singapore are making their way to China and have been behind some of the innovations that we've seen from China but I think if you look at it from abroad broader picture um I can tell you I've Speak to the tech industry every day and from what I see they are investing and investing hardcore uh nii and Nvidia chips we heard both open AI recently and Amazon say that they'll take as many uh Nvidia chips as they can or or an opening eyes case it was they were out of uh gpus so I anticipate the demand for these chips to be very strong and the AI trade to continue to be very strong moving forward all right we'll listen for detail on that on Reuben black Ultra this is like our list of buzzwords potentially as we move through this while the stock market may be unpredictable opportunities like nvidia's current position can be worth exploring with forecasts hinting at a positive trajectory and analysts projecting a promising future now might just be the perfect time to jump on board the Nvidia train
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