저자: DanIves추정 · 외국인
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Mag7 개념은 해체되어 종목별로 봐야 하며, Nvidia·Apple·Microsoft·Tesla·Palantir를 하락장 매수 후보로 제시. Nvidia는 과매도로 보고 2025년 내 사상 최고치 경신을 주장. Tesla는 머스크 브랜드 리스크로 관망 권고. 반면 Gil Lauria는 추론(inference)의 온디바이스화와 데이터센터 수요 둔화를 우려해 Nvidia에 중립. Jim Cramer는 Nvidia PEG 0.5 수준의 매력을 언급하며 변동성 감수를 강조. 매크로 환경이 Nvidia 반등을 제약할 수 있다는 Joe의 경고도 포함.
다듬은 글
Dan, I want to talk to you about this. I also want I want to play a sound bite for you from our Jim Kramer on Mad Money last night. I want to get your take on what he said about the Mag 7. I would not jump back into the Magnificent 7 because as of tonight, there is no Mag 7. Came up with that name. Scrapping it right now.
No moniker fits the two or three that remain viable. And I'm not going to put And there's nothing magnificent about Tesla or Nvidia. Uh nothing magnificent according to Jim Kramer about Nvidia or Tesla. Do you agree? Look, I think what Jim's saying is you have to look at these all separate growth names.
You know, you can't just put them all in a basket. If you look at Nvidia, in my opinion, one of the most oversold there in terms of where I think the chip trades going. Tesla, as we've talked about, has its own specific issues that they need to navigate in terms of the Musk brand issues. I think you got to look at these in terms of do you own Microsoft?
I think you own Alpha. In my view, you double down on tech here if you believe, which we do, that this AI revolution is still in the early inning. So you're saying, do you agree? No more Mag 7. It's really about Alphabet and Microsoft and the other ones case by case, valuation, entry point. Is that the story?
I think it's still I think Mag 7's there. But I think what Jim's saying, which is a great way to put, is you have to see how they're going to navigate over the coming months. Some of these stories could become disentangled from some others. You can't just put them in a group. You got to focus on specific names.
Where do you own Alphabet? Where do you own Microsoft? Tesla, what are the brand issues? I think that's the best way to navigate it. Let's go back to Tesla for a second. Uh when we talk about Elon Musk, it's a bit more than brand issues right now. I'm just looking at his year-to- date losses right now.
Uh $132 billion for Elon Musk. That's a lot of money even for the richest person in the world. Uh Larry Ellison down more than 23 billion. Jeff Bezos down about 22.5 billion. Jensen Wong down more than 20 billion. What do you make of that? The fact that these tech billionaires uh their companies, they powered the market over the last two years, but now they're taking some big losses.
It's been a dark time for for Tesla shareholders, especially this year, right? I mean, because when it comes to Musk and it comes to all the opportunity, the innovation ahead right now, it's not just brand issues, it's distractions. And I think it really starts now be become almost the symbol in terms of the selloff.
Look, and I think we talk about gut check moment, Frank. I think this is going to be one of those periods for Musk, for Tesla. They really need to navigate because this is going to be a key three to six months ahead. There's so much innovation ahead and we continue to be so bullish. But no doubt this has really been a, you know, a really a white knuckle moment for Tesla shareholders.
Yeah. I got to put you on the spot. Everybody's listening to hear what you have to say. Uh give us your your top picks in tech at this point. Not what's going to work 10 years from now. I mean, for people that are buying, you know, looking for opportunities over the next year or so, I want to point something else out.
Um, this is from Bespoke. So, um, obviously yesterday, one of the worst days for the stock market in years, the NASDAQ, it's fallen a similar amount over the last 13 trading days than it did in the first 13 trading days of co. Just to kind of put that in perspective, what are your top picks? What what would you buy on the dip right now?
I think there's five names here that that I buy on a in terms of the names I view as just table pounders relative to where I see it 6 12 months now. It's Nvidia, it's Apple, it's Microsoft, it's Tesla, it's Palanteer. To me, those are the five names the way that they've sold off that I continue to view as sort of the names that I would own over these next three six months that I right here, right now.
Right here, right now. Okay. Um, when we're talking Nvidia and Tesla, hands off right now. I know you, you know, you're one of the biggest bulls in Nvidia we've ever seen. Uh, you've been a, you know, you cover Tesla as part of your EV coverage. Is it just hands off right now? Too much volatility? I mean, I don't, look, I've always viewed it and anyone that's follow me for decades like in the chaos creates opportunities.
When I look at Nvidia, you're talking about there's only one chip fueling the AI revolution. This will be I believe all-time highs for Nvidia will happen in 2025 despite what we're seeing. for Tesla. It's it's navigating this moment. We've been where six times we've had 50% selloffs. Every time has been the opportunity.
Dan Ies shocked the world with one of his most unexpected Nvidia predictions to date with their fiscal results making headlines featuring a staggering revenue increase and earnings per share soaring beyond expectations. Nvidia has certainly captured the market's interest. But with all the dips and hits it has been taking recently, can it recover?
Dan Ies seems to think there is a chance. Welcome back everyone to Investocracy. Meanwhile, Joe, you're also looking at Nvidia's performance after the event as well. What exactly are you keying on and and what exactly do you think we could see in terms of the upside or downside and some of the volume that goes along with it?
I think the important thing uh for Nvidia is can it escape the macro? Can can it overcome the macro with what it's going to say? There's going to be a very clear message. They're going to talk about Blackwell Ultra. They're going to talk about the uh the AI platform moving forward just like they did with last year's conference talking about Blackwell.
And the message clearly is going to be keep spending on our chips. But if we go back and if we could uh if sunny Anglewood Cliffs, New Jersey could pull up a chart of Nvidia last year at the GTC conference, you'll see from the middle of March at the initiation of the conference until the middle of April, the stock rallies after the GTC conference about 8% and then guess what?
The macro gets in its way. And I fear that's exactly where we are right now with Nvidia. They've already alleviated the concerns surrounding Deep Seek with raising their guidance. They're going to introduce further AI strategies that are going to get people excited and have people keep spending. But is the macro environment ultimately going to be the problem?
I'm concerned it is. And and if I could just follow up one second with you, Jim, Nvidia, because we framed it around Nvidia as a catalyst this week. What are the thoughts there? This is a name that you are a part of. Yeah. and very happily a part of. I think everybody has to understand there is no free lunch in investing.
You don't get reward without risk and the risk is volatility which means that you get draw downs like this. Another friend of the show Adam Parker has done some excellent research that says if you want to get 10 baggers like Nvidia you have to be prepared for routine 50% draw downs which has happened a lot in in Nvidia's uh last 5 years.
Um, I'm not saying that that's where we are now. I actually think that it's probably, uh, Christina pointed this out, very attractively priced at 26 times forward earnings for earnings per share growth at 52 53% going forward. That's a PEG ratio of 0.5. And boy, I love that. So, I feel very good about Nvidia, but I'm going to close by going back to where I started.
There is no free lunch. If you want the rewards that an Nvidia brings, you have to be prepared for the risk and the volatility. Despite all the hurdles, Nvidia remains a titan in the AI market. The Blackwell architecture system has been a shining beacon, driving significant revenue growth, not to mention the new chips that it is going to pedal in 2025 and beyond.
Nvidia is poised to make a comeback like never befor. Shares of Nvidia are lowered today as they kick off their annual GPU technology conference. All eyes will be on CEO Jensen Wong's keynote address tomorrow where he's expected to make new announcements on AI chips. Later on Thursday, the company will host its first ever quantum day with CEOs of notable players in the space taking stage alongside Wong.
Nvidia has scrambled to retain its AI crown ever since Deep Seek sparked a selloff in AI stocks back in January. It's 22% below its all-time high amid intensifying competition. So, will it do enough to entice skeptics? Let's ask our next guest. He's got a neutral on the stock. Gil Lauria, a senior software analyst at DA Davidson.
Gil, we made a Freudian slip that I we we said it's GPU event. Uh but it's it's GTC and I was curious the other day. I thought, what does GTC stand for? And it stands for GPU tech conference or something. Um point being, this is a super super wonky thing to have so many people reportedly excited about.
Is it overhyped? Not at all. It's the main AI event of the year. Uh let's not forget to give Nvidia credit for a lot of the advancements we have in AI are because they uh a long time ago realized the potential for their graphics chips to provide the ability to do these transformer calculations that make all of this AI possible.
First in the labs at Google and then at the labs of open AI and over the last few years NVIDIA has done a lot to promote the whole ecosystem. And that's what this event is about. Inviting everybody that's anybody in AI to talk about what they can accomplish together using Nvidia's products. Looking ahead, while Nvidia may be weathering a challenging storm, history shows that this company knows how to weather the market's volatility.
With past instances of significant price fluctuations followed by strong rebounds, Nvidia has proven its resilience time and again. , I've read a few notes. I mean, you tell me yours, but Blackwell Ultra, right? That's one of the things. What What do we What are the key words that a non-expert like myself needs to hear to know if the stock is going to rally or, you know, possible problems that could cause it to sell off?
So, in terms of the product, there's Blackwell Ultra that's coming out this year and then Reuben that's probably coming out next year. And what we're going to be listening for from Jensen Wong is multiples. How much faster is Blackwell Ultra than Blackwell? How much faster how many teraflops per second can Black can Reuben do faster than Blackwell Ultra?
That's going to tell us a lot about if Nvidia can continue to maintain its product leadership over the ASIC chip providers like Broadcom, like Marll, increasingly like Huawei. Gil, what about this idea that kind of shocked markets a couple weeks ago when DeepC came out uh and it and it was done on a much smaller platform and implied that you need many fewer chips to do highle AI.
Is that idea kind of faded now or is Nvidia just powering past that with more powerful chips that people are going to need to buy no matter what? If they're buying chips, they're going to buy these high-end ones. That idea really shouldn't fade because what's happening with these AI models is they're getting so much smaller, so much faster that we're not far away from a day where we'll be able to do inference calculation on our device on a phone, on a PC, not at a data center.
And so this is very important for thinking about how long of a runway Nvidia has is when do models get small enough that we don't do inference at a data center. And since pre-training or or what we used to refer to as training is something that's starting to hit a wall as well. We're not sure how many data centers we're actually going to need 2 3 5 years from now.
And that's the concern that overhangs Nvidia. As the story of Nvidia unfolds, one thing remains clear. This company has a track record of bouncing back from adversity. With a legacy of recovering from significant downturns and emerging stronger, Nvidia may present a compelling investment opportunity for those willing to weather the storm. .
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