저자: CathieWood · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드는 엔비디아 실적 후 하락에도 AI 성장 유지를 주장하며 모델상 점유율 감소(80→40%)와 마진 하락을 감안해도 연 20%+ 수익률을 예상한다고 밝힘. 하이퍼스케일러 자체 칩 확대를 리스크로 인정하면서도 엔비디아를 여전히 성장주로 보고 보유 중. 같은 방송 출연자 Malcolm Ethridge는 엔비디아를 108달러대에 매수했다고 하며 장기 보유 의향을 밝힘. 반도체는 관세 등으로 단기 변동성이 크다고 경계함.
다듬은 글
I know our time is brief here you're very in demand in a conference like this but I want to get your thoughts on two stocks that you were seen as an authority on Nvidia sold off big on its earnings yes to me the numbers look good I get the concern around guidance what's your reaction to that quarter yeah yes we've um reworked our models and um we have never said Nvidia is going to be a bad Stu what we have said is we think that the big big girl AI plays now that in or let's say back 6 months ago when it was was near at Zenith um we were saying back then you know there are companies out there people don't even understand or the most important AI plays and and share gainers in the software space and in the embodied AI space the physical space think Tesla which is robots energy storage AI uh so we were very much focused on who Nvidia was enabling um now we're taking a closer look after this uh after this drop what we are seeing is the hyperscalers themselves are all trying to build out their own chips Invidia still has the line share Even in our model we battle tested it dropping it from 80 % share in gpus down to 40% in the next 5 years uh and taking its margin structure back down into the 60s the gross margins from the 70s we still get a north of 20% compound annual rate of return now um but I think many investors are just asking that question wait wait a minute are they going to lose share whether it's to AMD or to their their largest customer not Intel no not Intel but Amazon has graviton and and tranium uh Google has the TPU Microsoft meta they're Dei you know they are evolving their own chips so this Market won't be nvidia's alone but all praise to Nvidia for the incredible opportunities it has created it really got the AI Revolution going and we think it's still going play a mighty role we do own it in many of our FS so Nvidia to you is still a growth stock yes Kathy Wood shockingly changed her Nvidia prediction yet again and dropped some hard Truth for people still skeptical about Nvidia she warns every investor that they need to invest in Nvidia before April 1st because the stock is going to blow up for a myriad of reasons but what exactly prompted her to change her mind what are the reasons that are so attractive to the average investor ster Malcolm Ethridge however is buying one big name at the center of this recent Market turmoil and that's why you see him sitting right there it is NVIDIA which I've asked you probably I don't know 40 times since you've been joining us why don't you own that name well now you do yeah I would say it's probably closer to 40,000 Scott and each time I said for some reason or another uh my answer was not yet or I felt like the trade had passed me and I was watching Nidia trade last week uh basically the entire week it traded down to the 110 Mark and kept finding resistance for some reason it would break through that number and then it'd be bought back up into the Clos and so I did take the plunge and bought last Friday right at 108 and so hopefully this is the place right that's a 25% discount off its high around 148 that 110 number is a 25% discount I mean and so I'm happy to buy with a discount knowing that as you just teed up we're in a pretty volatile space where that that company could see far more volatility than uh it has to this point but I feel good about at least starting the position there does does that is that a statement overall that you think the worst of the selling in the mega caps for example is now over and I ask somebody who has Apple and Amazon and Microsoft as part of the portfolio as well not necessarily I think it's it's bifurcated here so I think a company like Nvidia maybe even Microsoft who don't really rely on the consumer much at all companies like that who can have their conversation with their Enterprise clients and that's where it ends are probably going to experience a different meltdown if there is one from here uh when we get earnings we'll start to hear a little bit more about it you think about an Amazon and apple all of the other mag seven names rely on the consumer and Dollar General was out with guidance today telling us that the consumer is in trouble and so I think if I'm going to go buying any dips here I want to buy those that are shielded against whatever is happening with the consumer and has offered investors a tantalizing refrain with its recent surge in stock value fueled by a blend of Hope and substantiated predictions especially from someone like Kathy Wood at the heart of this excitement is City Group analyst Atif mik's latest research nod despite ongoing tariff updates and stringent National Security restrictions on semiconductor exports to China Malik isn't throwing in the towel just yet on the contrary he's setting a price target of $163 translating to a possible 43% % gain even after the recent uptick 've have you have had a decent reset in multiples from the mag 7 though and it it has been notable if we you know were thinking that okay maybe these things are a little extended with the pullback well I don't know maybe not So Much Anymore for example a month ago Nvidia was north of 30 times forward today it's less than 25 Apple a month ago was north of 31 today it's below 28 Microsoft was almost 29 today it's 262 and so on and so forth you get my point I do and I think that that is what is shaping up to create that buying opportunity in certain Tech names certain mag seven names but I don't necessarily want to buy the entire NASDAQ thinking that a high tide is about to sweep through and raise all boats I think there's still a lot of unknowns you guys just got through naming a lot of them as far as this Administration is concerned uh simis for example it's going to be a bumpy road ahead for semies as a category because the the president's trade policy does sweep up a lot of those names uh Nvidia and others and so I don't necessarily think this is a place you want to go trading any of these names in the semis but I do think for longer term investors this is a name that I'll continue to hold for quite some time this is shaping up to be a great place to at least start to build that position if you like me have been on the outside looking in for quite some time add to this a compelling Reuters report proposing nvidia's potential Collective Venture with semiconductor Giants to leverage Intel's us factories and you have a stock narrative pulsating with promise Jensen hang's keynote set the stage for nvidia's continued Innovation and growth narrativ I do think that nvidia's been become a meme stock it's controlled by these 2x ETFs and by the zero day options well most people think that can't be the case but you know you when those are theoreticians and I'm empirical I don't like Theory I like empirical and that has been my strategy since 77 I'm not deviating you went empirical uh B OFA today reiterates a buy 200 very compelling price they argue is there any risk of Jensen disappoint How would how would he disappoint next week he would disappoint by saying that um they're still that they have Ruben their next iteration and people are starting to skip Blackwell for the next one which would then cause a freeze but I don't think they're going to that would be something that I don't think Jensen will say I think Jensen's is Jensen's when he before the this conference you can't reach him he's just in Qui quiet we don't know so I to to speculate what he's going to say is to is to is to run the risk of really going against uh uh the Manhattan Project you just never know what they're up to right uh by the way as for semis Jim pretty remarkable number 5% uh above the 200 dma five 5% in in semis I mean that does if that's not a wash out what would you call it no it is a wash out you know the semis are divided between the internet of things and Telco and the telco's been horrible I I always the poster always been Marvell Tech where the numbers were actually quite good but nobody cared that's a stock that was cut in half broadcom down 18% that's an incredible company uh with that blew away the quarter Texas Instruments didn't have a bad quarter when you go over these obviously Intel there's always a rumor floated every day now it's Taiwan semi wanting their their not so great uh Fabs before is marll is going to buy uh they're going to buy altia and then it was silver like could in I mean may I suggest that they stop talking to they just should stop like Reuters give reuter something I'm waiting for the ft to say that any minute now qualcom is going to buy him after qualcom denied and then broadcom after hawan denied but people can say anything and it's irritating maybe this is the one maybe this is the boy who cried wolf and really there is something for Intel despite recent setbacks the convergence of strategic Investments and promising Market potential positions Nvidia as a compelling option for those seeking growth in their portfolio Tesl
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