저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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3월 조정은 기술적 조정(S&P500 10%↓)으로 정의되며, 트럼프 관세 정책의 일관성·확실성 부족이 하락 원인이라고 주장. 베선트의 '조정은 건강하다' 발언에 반박하며 경기침체 우려를 강조. 엔비디아는 2025년이 자본지출 피크일 수 있고 2026년 성장 여부가 핵심이며, 실적 후 하락 시 목표가 60달러, 상승 시 160달러 시나리오를 제시. 본인은 엔비디아를 최근 매수(100 풋 매도)했다고 밝힘.
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the market actually wants to go higher on a day like today there are plenty of buyers who are either willing to look the other way on tffs or are simply getting used to the disturbances from Washington and that's why the Dow ried 353 points SB gain 64% NASDAQ advance. 31% this was the day where we got the president Trump we expected we had so many groups flying that it was tough to even come up with names or themes other than to say businesses under thr that were under Trump one did well today I don't know I I don't want to stick my neck out declare that the correction is over but it's worth delving to the possibility that maybe the businesses that went up today are ones that can Thrive under Trump to first let's establish what we've been through a correction that's what we've been through it's technical term meaning a drop of more than 10% which is what we had in the s& SP 500 as of last Thursday a peak the trough drop from month ago the NASDAQ was in correction mode long before that so why not call the bottom because I'm worried about something the treasury secretary Besson said yesterday or Meet the Press first Besson told us that Corrections are healthy all right that's simply not true if you own stocks if you got your retirement money in the SB and it drops 10% that feels incredibly unhealthy not just for you but for the entire economy because people tend to spend less money when their wealth vanishes overnight Corrections are unhealthy if you are worried about tipping into recession and most business people I talk to are worried about that then bessent went on to say that he knows from being in the investment business for 30 5 years that Corrections not only healthy but they're normal uh what's not healthy tells us is quote straight up that you get these euphoric markets that's how you get a financial CR and quote interesting perspective goes on to say quote it would have been much healthier if someone had put the brakes on in ' 0607 we wouldn't have had the problems in ' 08 end quote I kind of like that but let me parse this with an understanding that I've been in the business 45 years and as much as I would like to say that makes me better more seasoned smarter I'm not going to do that sticking around for a long time simply doesn't the expertise that you might think it should for example when Besson says Corrections are healthy and normal he's talking like all Corrections are are the same that couldn't be further from the truth most Corrections are not like the one that we have for the last few weeks you can get a correction because the FED changes in stance the market got too exuberant foreign problems have been exported to our Shores stuff like that but that's not what we're talking about here he knows that not at all right now people are worried about a recession that's caused by the president of the United States it's a correction that has nothing to do with the federal government's transition to a more prudent spending philosophy we Americans want that is we are worried about the government borrowing more than they can afford worried for our kids for our grandkids who are going to have to pay for the federal government's profit ly Instead This solve had everything to do with a lack of consistency and a lack of certainty something that should be obvious to Mr B for 35 years in the business as it is for me after 45 years in the business if president Trump had cooly and calmly laid out a strategy for evening the scales with our trading partners I think he would gotten a low to buy it we're the only country to place Fair on trade and that cost us countless jobs over the years foreign countries subsidize all sorts of our product of our their products and then they dump them on our markets and Cut Rate prices China is the king of this they hardly alone them the numbers speak for themselves for decades our government let it happen because these countries were sending us lots of cheap stuff and who know like Che stuff but if you get to the point where Germany South Korea Japan have saturated our autom markets more than 50% of our vehicles are imported for heaven sake no this is not right no other developed Nation simply gives away their markets like that's INF fury it's awful Must Be Stopped Jim Kramer is back to ignite controversy and have a total meltdown on camera about Nvidia and it's possibly not so bright future According to Jim The Magnificent Seven companies including Tech behemoths like Nvidia apple and Microsoft are gearing up for a Monumental shift in artificial intelligence infrastructure with a projected capital expenditure exceeding $330 billion by 2025 but is this the last Harrah for AI investment or is it a glimpse into a future where more money is being spent welcome back everyone to invest ocracy so is the implication there that there's some sort of Nvidia Cliff out there that we don't know where it is but at some point demand is really going to fall off that's exactly where the why the stock has lagged so much over the last nine months is that we don't know that and in fact we think this may even be Peak year 2025 may end up being the peak year if we don't have a hand off from nvidia's current largest customers like Microsoft and Amazon that have said their chip buying is going to Plateau this year to other customers like core weave or SoftBank then this may end up being Peak year for NVIDIA chips so that it that tone of caution Gil is interesting because there are others who say you know this technology is really just starting to go mainstream and I take your point about using it on the phone someday but the best models out there are still the ones that seem to be most chip intensive right like grock is grock 3 is amazing it's j and is that not with 200,000 you tell me what the number is of these gpus so if I as the end user value having the best experience the fastest the most upto-date um you I like its tone you know it's just very useful so does that tell you though that they still need to continue this massive investment in Nvidia gpus well the vast majority of AI searches we're going to do are going to be what's the best humidifier for this room how do I entertain my 5-year-old at a restaurant those within 2 or three years you'll be able to do on your phone and get terrific performance performance within again that time frame 2 3 5 years the only calculations that we're going to need the biggest Frontier models for are the really tough calculations protein folding drug development things like that that will by the way end up on a quantum computer within five or 10 years anyway well that's the other question is what does Quantum do to this because if if quantum comes in and accelerates the growth of all this uh you can imagine that all of that processing power gets even into smaller and smaller devices and you are you using less chips in a Quantum World by an order of magnitude that's quite possible so in that world of 5 10 years from now we're probably using our phone for most AI questions and we're using quantum computers for the really tough questions at which points data centers just go back to being storage devices as opposed to where we do all of our AI compute so then Gil last question for you have we already hit a top in Nvidia are we past the peak I think there's a couple of possible outcomes here one is that this can continue for a year or two or or maybe more and Nvidia can continue to grow into next year in which case there's upside to the stock if you put 30 times next year's earnings you get closer to $160 the downside is if this is the peak year and next year is the rollover year then if they do $3 of earnings then we're talking about a $60 Pro Target so that's the range of outcomes in Nvidia it's really critical for us to know whether 2026 will be a growth year as consensus expect according to the latest insights from Edward yardy the AI bubble could be on the verge of popping as China pushes forward with AI technology utilizing cost-effective chips this technological arms race could reshape the landscape of AI Capital spending and profit margins across the board nvestors awaiting updates on its Blackwell GPU and its NextGen Reuben chip shares still down 20 2% from record highs hit in January over the last week three analysts have lowered their price Targets on the stock so our expectations pric to sell the news Dan uh if it is sell the news then watch out for the entire gener of AI trade because again we all thought good quarter good guy acronym yeah the gen8 yeah exactly and I played that game right um you know I mean listen it sold off after the results the stock was already down right there was a lot of negative sentiment a lot of their customers had already sold off over the prior couple weeks so I just don't know if there's any anything new for them to talk about as it you know as far as the product roadmap um exists right now so I'd be most worried if the stock let's say rallies because it's been down a lot and then fails because that is just uh meaning that there's no appetite for this story right now or what is the incremental buyer looking for so we were talking about this the other day I'm more interested in what are they seeing right now not what is a little bit down the road what are they seeing right now has the story changed you know we come back to this is there going to be a lot more compute needed for inference and is deep seek actually potentially a plus right capex story what is it you know again capex is not written in stone if companies decide you know what the environment is not so we don't view it as favorable there's too much ambiguity out there they'll pull back on capex Nvidia loses to that I think that and the fact that they promis in the back half that this year you'd see a re acceleration of margins let's see if they address that as well it is amazing that after hearing all of the major hyperscalers come out and raise their capex guidance that there is still disbelief around those numbers right that that there's still in investors's Minds an asteris next to any number given by a meta a Google whoever and and remember those numbers and that guidance was well after deep seek um it was not they had a chance to recant or try to hedge their words or something um so I I think it's important I I I think everyone's saying the same thing though that this this is an important point for the market it's a it's a period where the breakdown in semis has been you know very you know very clear and it's was all the way back to last summer nidus traded the best of all of them as it should uh it's not expensive uh but this is an important moment the underperformance of The Magnificent Seven companies barring meta platforms has left investors in a state of concern factors like interest rate sensitivity trade tensions and stock concentration have played pivotal roles in shaping the current market climatre you buy a buyer of Nvidia now are you buyer of Tesla now which of the mag 7even so I'm I'm long Nvidia I bought it last week and actually aggressively sold those 100 puts didn't feel great when it was down at 107 but here we are collecting that premium happy to own Nvidia lower than $100 but at this point this moment in time we've had a nice $10 appreciation in the move I'm being very tactical shares of Nvidia are lowered today as they kick off their annual GPU technology conference all eyes will be on CEO Jensen Wong's keynote address tomorrow where he's expected to make new announcements on AI chips later on Thursday the company will host its first ever Quantum day with CEOs of notable players in the space taking stage alongside Wong Nvidia has scrambled to retain its AI crown ever since deep sea sparked a selloff in AI stocks back in January it's 22% below its all-time high amid intensifying competition so will it do enough to entice Skeptics let's ask our next guest he's got a neutral on the stock Gila is senior software Analyst at da Davidson Gil we made a Freudian slip that I we we said it's GPU event uh but it's it's GTC and I was curious the the day I thought what does GTC stand for and it stands for GPU Tech conference or something um point being this is a super super wonky thing to have so many people reportedly excited about is it overhyped not at all it's the main AI event of the year uh let's not forget to give Nvidia credit for a lot of the advancements we have in AI are because they uh a long time ago realized the potential for their Graphics chips to provide the ability to do these Transformer calculations that make all of this AI possible first in the labs at Google and then at the labs of open Ai and over the last few years Nvidia has done a lot to promote the whole ecosystem that's what this event is about inviting everybody that's anybody and AI to talk about what they can accomplish together as the dust settles on the battlefield of the stock market one question lingers in the air should you join the ranks of investors eyeing the Magnificent 7 the future holds both risks and rewards with forecast pointing towards potential growth and resilienc
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