저자: TomLee · 외국인
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관세 공포로 시장이 급락했으나 과거 위기 전례상 회복 가능성이 크다는 주장. 소비자심리 지표는 민주당 지지층 중심 비관이 과도하며 채권시장은 공황이 아니라고 봄. 엔비디아는 최근 20% 이상 조정으로 기대치가 낮아져 GTC 이벤트를 계기로 단기 반등 여지가 있다고 평가하며, 엔비디아가 AI 생태계 전반을 육성하고 있어 장기 성장성이 유효하다고 주장.
다듬은 글
one of your next guests says the markets will find their footing before April 2nd when the reciprocal tariffs which for now are set to take effect joining us now for more is Tom Lee he is the head of research and founder of fun Strat also a CNBC contributor also joining us Nancy tangler laugher tangler Investments CIO and CEO Tom listen I understand it's a different White House every day we get a market moving headline a a lot of people I think honestly I'm just going to say it they don't want to be neutral they don't want to be data driven they want to be angry I I get that but history says that markets will recover right yes they've Mar they've recovered every time um one thing we have to keep in mind is when markets fall this quickly from a 52- we High I mean uh just remember less than a month ago we were at all-time highs that is a market pricing in a crisis um you know I'd say almost 50% pricing in a recession and we're assuming there's no fed put now the FED is in a position to cut rates that really should mitigate the downside and I do think two other things that investors have to keep in mind because many people just want to get out until April 2nd is number one I do think there's a very high probability that a tariff solution happens before the next three weeks happens and it's simple to see because China Europe Canada Mexico since April 18th all of those countries have outperformed the US I don't think that markets are that blind to say if Canada Mexico are about to have a recession they should outperform the US and I think the second thing people should keep in mind is that when you have a global crisis brewing and we we highlighted like the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis that was a 12-day crisis but the markets bottomed seven days into the crisis 5 days before that crisis ended the market was already recovered 2third of the losses and that was only Nancy nuclear Holocaust I mean that literally was we're going to break the world in half with icbms I mean that that was compared to tariff worries and a Slowdown in the economy because we might slap something on European wine or or or steel seems very small now that said again I and I'm not saying the markets are going to recover next week I don't know we're talking about history and I don't like to bring up politics Nancy it always makes me feel like I need a shower but I will ask you this how much of this correction that we are seeing do you think 100% 50% 0% is political is man-made is tariff made it's funny you ask that Brian it's good to see you um if you look at the consumer sentiment numbers today and I I commend um everyone to read uh Kelly's piece that she wrote this morning uh but if you look at behind it by political party what you see is that that um Democratic sentiment has not been this low especially on expectations ever and so if you look sentiment overall by party uh Democrats down from 91.4 all the way down to 41.4 while Independents and Republicans are down somewhat but have held up and then on on expectations down from 28.2 uh to I'm sorry down from 93.1 to 28.2 so that that's driving some of these sentiment numbers that the Market's keying off of and I would just point out um that the bond market is not panicking and so this notion that we're going to go into recession because the Atlanta fed GDP now number was revised down that was driven by Imports uh they were up 70% in January as purchasing managers trying to get in front of tariffs so I think just like in 2022 this will all settle in we are seeing decelerating growth but that's good for many of the names that have been punished the reliable earnings growers in technology and consumer discretionary and uh some financials even so I think we will continue this this is a correction we needed one we get one every 12 months and so now the question is have we hit the bottom do we have a little more to go but I don't think we're in a bare Market Tom Lee recently came out to comment on nvidia's stock making another surprising leap capturing the attention of investors and Industry analysts alike and Lee revealed something shocking that is going to happen to Nvidia soon with no evident trigger Nvidia climbed nearly 4.5% in the final half hour of trading last Friday could this be the News investors we're waiting for or is there something else that we are not seeing welcome back everyone to invest ocracy inedia actually had a good week overall unlike the major indices but it's also got a big week next week with GTC how influential do you think Nvidia is going to be uh with its news next week so John Our concern with Nvidia has been simply that it's been relying on a beaten race Dynamic with estimates for the past 6 months and has been laboring along that right but what you've done with this recent stock price setback you know where you've sold the stock off what over 20% from Peak to to recent trough is you begin to take some of that expectation out so you get yourself to a point now where uh a reconfirmation that underlying Trends are in place might just be uh sufficient to to uh to give the stock some Renewed Energy at least on the short term so then how much of a potential tech industry Catalyst or I don't know what you want to call it it might not be a catalyst will nvidia's GTC be because they're not just talking about their own product they're showcasing the possibilities involved with building on top of their technology that's right so next week GTC is the big event of AI for the year let's not forget Nvidia not only facilitates most of the progress in AI through their products but is also really trying hard to cultivate the entire ecosystem around AI they're they're going to uh promote uh llm model companies they're going to promote robotics companies they're even going to promote Quantum companies at a Quantum day next week and so they're trying to create to plant the seeds for these companies to Leverage The Nvidia product set to deliver more growth so we're going to hear a lot more about that and we'll hear more about nvidia's new products Blackwell Ultra Reuben the will come out next year and and and Nvidia has a great opportunity to get the ecosystem excited about what can get built even if it will take time as the stock market experienced a slight rebound after a challenging week and videoid wasn't Left Behind Friday's near close saw the tech giant shares Elevate as if on an invisible level up drawing curious eyes to its unexpected Ascent the answer lies partially with foxcon taiwan's largest electronics manufacturer who recently anticipated its AI server business to more than double by the first quarter of 2024 meim Nvidia bouncing higher today up more than 5% the stock closing out the week with an 8% gain making it the only mag s stock up this week still the AI darling is down more than 20% from its 52e high and next week the company hosts its GTC conference in San Jose with a keynote from CEO Jensen hang Tuesday and a Quantum day on Thursday analysts looking for updates on nvidia's Blackwell Ultra and nextg Ruben chips as well as demand from China and a road map for its Quantum computing plans um Karen know that part of the runup this week at least was anticipation of this major potential Catalyst right right but what I think I don't know if he's going to address this is how is Demand right now right for what's going on has anything turned yes has anything turned and having a little bit more time not a ton but a little bit more time post deep seek uh you know do you think the world has changed Stacy rascan I don't know if you heard him on in the prior hour or two was saying he thought deep seek was a big positive but clearly the street thingss differently I'd be very curious to hear um Jensen's take on that which I know he's saying inference is going to we need so much more compute for inference yes right and so he you know is touting that as a positive which there's skepticism though right we're right um Tim you got your voice back let's hope so I this is been a tough tough run here um yes what what can I do for you Nvidia and GTC what are you expecting I do think this is an important moment for the stock we got numbers as we all know a few weeks back and those numbers were fine but as we as we think about the the drivers and what the Deep seek impact is there's no question that still Nvidia is the only game in town and I I still think that that capex spend is not something we should be challenging GTC is going to be another data point and and I think it's important for the market I I like what this what the stock did on the chart this week it was really important chairman young L's remarks during an earnings call suggest a robust future with Nvidia at the helm predicting AI server Revenue could command more than half of foxc con's total server Revenue by 2025 Lou revealed plans to escalate production for NVIDIA in plain terms Nvidia is not just playing with the big boys they are the big boy uh do you remember when Nvidia reporter earnings John Fort had had a interview one-on-one interview with Jensen hang after that report we were saying oh you know Jensen hang you he's he's always managed to come out and message the markets and stir the stock higher and nothing happened so what do you think this yeah he's been an extra excellent salesperson for the name I I I I think this will be one of those apple events where you sell it you know on the day of or you sell it coming out of it but what I thought was interesting is they're having their first ever Quantum day and if you look at stocks like d-wave that that was up 47% today uh if you look at retti that was up 28% today so watch those names out of it they're trying to change from AI to Quantum I think that's very interesting how does Nvidia stack up in your mag s list well they're really dependent on your other mag 7 right because what you need to see is the cap capex from these other companies need to continue to increase which interestingly enough did even after deep seek they pledged even more money to go back to chips which has been a positive for NVIDIA so I think you want to watch not just what they're going to say at this conference but also is that capex going to continue to increase especially if there is concerns about growth in the economy are they going to pull that back I think that's a bigger indication to where Nvidia is going emphasizing nvidia's promising prospects investing in its stock seems increasingly appealing the enhanced production efforts from foxcon embody a strategic commitment to nvidia's pivotal role in AI advancement
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