저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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Marc Faber는 2009년 이후 회복이 신용팽창·통화증발·저금리로 지탱됐고, 대다수 가계의 생활수준은 5년 전보다 나빠졌다고 주장한다. 물가는 정부 발표보다 높으며 연준의 금리인하는 인플레이션을 재점화할 것이라고 본다. 금·은은 화폐로서 가치를 보존해 왔고 최근 돌파는 진정한 상승 추세 확인이라며 실물 금 보유를 권한다. 미국 언론과 정부 통계에 대한 불신을 표명한다.
다듬은 글
the economy post 2009 a great financial crisis recovered but it was a recovery that was financed largely by credit expansion and money Printing and artificially low interest rates both in the US and in Europe and especially of course in Japan and then we came up to 2018 2019 and the economy uh the global economy at that time was already weakened and then Co happened and then there was a big crash in the economy and in financial markets and then there was another recovery and new highs in financial markets but again there was a lot of money Printing and especially uh huge fiscal deficits that then led to relatively High inflation rates and eventually also the rising interest rates but in most economies around the world the economies have not recovered uh to the preco times to 2018 2019 I'm saying this well understanding that GDP what people look at in general and they say the economy expanded GDP was up and so for does not capture the reality of all people and certainly not the reality that the median household typical household in the world is facing which is much higher costs of living and somewhat higher wages but wages that have not uh gone up to the same extent as uh the cost of living in other words for most households around the world the current conditions are not better than four five years ago in fact they are worse in terms of standard of living because Ordinary People don't have a lot of assets and so when asset prices go up they don't participate to the same extent as Mark zukerberg and Elon Musk and people like myself participate that essentially have assets that they tend to appreciate so that is the view of the economy and I think the economies they need to go into reab Rehabilitation but uh the governments don't want that so they keep on printing money and providing liquidity into the system and it helps some people the wealthy people have advanced have become even wealthier but the middle class and the lower middle class and the poor worldwide are less well off than they were 5 years ago this is my view now some economists will of course come and say no that's not true the cost of living haven't gone up much and so forth but uh the evidence is very strongly supporting my view uh every government that was running out of money has uh essentially diminish the purchasing power of the currencies of the money in other words they all created inflationary policies they spent more than came into the treasury and this was financed by issuing lower and lower quality uh coins say at the beginning of the Roman Empire a gold and silver coin had a very high gold and silver content say 99 or 98% at the end of the Empire it had practically no silver and gold content you understand and we have to understand a deficit as we have today in the US will lead as you suggested to some hardship in future now the question is this future it could be far away it could be 5 10 years away and it could be relatively soon because now as you know the rate of inflation has increased and uh depending on the household and depending on the your conditions in life do you own a house already is it fully paid or do you have a lot of debts on your house do you have three children to look after and so for how many subsidies do you get each household has a different rate of cost of living increases but say for most people it's been five and 10% I've seen statistics that are relatively right reliable that would argue that the cost of living is going up by even more than 10% perom at the present time but I take now say a more modest figure of say 5 to 10% at this rate it would be a mistake to cut the FED fund rate because if say inflation is at 6% and the FED fund rate is currently at 5 and a qu% approximately the shortterm rates are still negative and the 10 years treasures at say 4.3% also have a negative yield inflation adjusted so the FED may choose to lower interest rates this year because one of the features of monetary inflation is that the economy basic goes in real terms into recession but in nominal terms it still expands so a lot of people don't notice that the economy is already in recession and If the Fed would cut rates here I think it would be highly inflationary and I look at markets and I always think markets are some sort of a discounting mechanism now usually when a country prints money the currency goes go down and so people look at the dollar and they compare it to the Yen and they compare it to the euro and so far the dollar has been holding up well but more recently as you know Bitcoins have gone ballistic they may be shortterm overboard but more recently in uh since the beginning of March gold and silver have gone up strongly now you have to ask yourself why is gold and silver going up strongly right now the gold and silver market may be smelling that in future there will be again money printing or more inflation and that's why they're adjusting on the upside and people normally don't look at gold and silver as a currency but actually it is 99% uh clean currency it is a true currency that throughout the ages have reflected fairly well the purchasing power of paper money so let's say I take gold at $35 in the 1930s and it was fixed at $35 an ounce until 1971 so by 71 the gold should have been higher but it was kept artificially low but then they adjusted it on the upside and immediately gold shot up to $850 in January 1980 now if we take as a starting point to be fairly adjusting for the purchasing power we should take maybe 19771 at about $100 an ounce and now gold is at about $2,000 an ounce so if I compare the cost of buying a house in 1970 and today if I compared the price of a Campbell Soup in 1970 and today gold has maintain its purchasing power it has been a great store of value I do not deny that certain other assets like stocks with continuous dividend reinvestments have outperformed gold since then that I do not deny but uh in general investors are jittery so they buy at the wrong time and uh sell at the wrong time so they underperform the indices so as an insurance and as a store of value I still regard gold and silver as out as outstanding uh Assets Now more recently when the gold and silver breakout took place for the first time in a very long time individual investors were selling they were selling gold and silver and not buying additional which tells me that this breakout on the upside is a very genuine breakout uh and the prices will likely move higher of course there will be correct ctions but in general the uptrend in gold and silver have been confirmed and so I want to reiterate what I said for the last 40 Years of course nobody ever listens I have always maintained that you need to hold some physical gold in your house or in your safe deposit box or wherever because you cannot trust any governments and you should never ever trust a Central banker there are statistics that don't lie like container traffic or the cast rate index they're all flatlines for the last few years and the markets go ballistic you know the and then as I said it depends who you are I give you an example and I don't say this because I want to brag but the reality is this I run a business uh I manage money and I publish my newsletter and I'm in the financial sector okay so I always have a large cash reserves because of the nature of my business and because of my cautiousness now in the last few years on say a deposit of $10 million maybe I got less than half% interest so say $50,000 now on a deposit of $10 million I get 5% or more so it's 500,000 I have no debts I never had any debts in my life I never bought bought anything on credit I bought things when I had enough money to buy them and nothing else so for me the situation of higher interest rates is moderately favorable of course I'm aware that prices also go up more than before so let's say an airline ticket and so forth and so on and uh to go out eating the price has gone say over the last four years for sure the price of a restaurant is up something like 20 to 30% depending where you are but I don't spend the money I earn all on food and energy and uh insurance premiums and maintenance of the house and so forth but a poor household they spend maybe if they have two children they spend on the rent something like 40% of their income and on food maybe 20 30% at the end of the month most people have not a penny to save most people and we have statistics of the number of people who live pay check to paycheck the latest statistics show approximately 66% now the number may be 50% or the number maybe 70% but it's at the highest level ever and that's why I'm telling you with Statistics you can show anything anything you wish depending where you start your statistics from and how you compile your statistics I mean recently this is most unusual you spoke about herik before at the fed well Larry Summers is a well-known Economist he was I think Secretary of the Treasury under under Obama or Clinton or whatever whatever anyway he recently published an article and this is very unusual that the former treasury official would criticize the way the government compiles the rate of inflation at the present time his rate of inflation peaked out at 18% last year John Williams who is a very I mean he's not democrat or republican or anything he's a statistici who analyzes the figures very thoroughly of the CPI how it's compiled because you can overweight food or you can underweight food and you can overweight housing and you can underweight housing then you get totally different figures he uses the mythology before the 1980s his inflation figures is much much higher than what the government is publishing and Larry summers in this recent article now which appeared in March 2024 no sorry that was Henry kofman two years ago he already said that the rate of interest is relatively low compared to the rate of inflation whereas in the 70s the interest was actually higher relative to inflation than it is now it's as kman said you want to fight inflation you have to smash a fist in the face of investors and of the public so they realize the central bank is serious about it but we have statistics that show that recently inflation price increases have continued and are not going much lower and yet the FED tells the public we're going to cut rates three times this year as if they knew that inflation would come off more well there's one way inflation could come off more is if the supplies of goods increases much but the service cost inflation that will stay relatively High mhm we have Goods deflation in some sectors because China is producing now Goods very efficiently again but as you know Miss Yellen is now in China why is she in China she will never tell us what the media is publishing in the US is a scam is misleading the public from A to Z about everything everything is a lie I'm not saying all the journalists are dishonest but the people that run the papers the editors are all on a payroll of someone and defend uh the interest of some people and they exclude uh the truth from being published
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