저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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미국 경제 체감은 나쁘고(생활비 상승, 임금 대비 물가), 주식 강세는 상위 10%에 집중됐다고 주장. 정부 재정적자와 통화 증발로 인플레이션이 지속되며, 금리 인하·양적완화 시 달러 약세 전망. 달러 약세 수혜로 비트코인과 귀금속(금·은·백금)을 자산의 20~30% 보유 권고. 미중 갈등과 지정학적 블록화도 언급.
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actually I think uh it's more evident that for the majority of Americans and majority of people around the world economic conditions are not favorable because uh their cost of living has been going up more than their salaries than their compensation so there are many service in the US which seemed to indicate that about 2third of Americans live paycheck to paycheck and I live here in Asia and I can observe the Asian economy is fairly well because I travel and I go out and I mix with people I mean uh the Thai economy is probably the worst in Asia and the stock market has performed also miserably but uh it's still kind of indicative I have a friend he has a restaurant and he told me his figures uh precisely over the last last few years say after covid the traffic in his restaurant increased and this year May June is the worst he's had on record and uh another friend of mine don't think that I only have friends who have restaurants and bars but quite a few of those another one he owns a bar and his business he also said is the worst he can remember in May June and then other bar I know which typically does fairly well uh I went last night last night it rained very heavily until about say 9:00 at night but I usually go out around 11:30 at night and uh that place was empty and then they have a boxing Stadium here in shangai as an example uh they have tie boxing matches here but around the boxing Stadium or the Court the boxing ring there many bars they were h i mean more than half empty so the business isn't very good tourism relatively speaking is doing okay but it's not back to the level of 2018 2019 it's still down about 30% from those times also in Vietnam so all I'm saying is when you look at the stock market you would think the economy is booming the economy is booming for 1% or 10% of the population the 10% of the population owns almost 80% of all stocks in the US so for these people the economy is booming but not for the Working Man inflation only happens for one reason and that are the reason is an irresponsible incompetent government if the government doesn't want inflation it can do it by essentially not having any fiscal deficits a fiscal deficit by definition is inflationary but it is in particular inflationary if the Central Bank finances the deficit which is has happened in the US well who knows what will happen but I see more and more people and I tend to agree with the theory look MK uh the governments will keep on printing money the purchasing power of money will continue to depreciate as long as governments print money stocks will have a rising tendency that is correct now the question is that stocks especially in the US uh among the say magnificent seven semiconductors and so for these stocks they have a relatively High valuation or extreme High valuation so even with money printing stocks may not go up a lot and as we've seen today as an example the CPI came out and it was perceived to be better than expected now the CPI the way the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculate the CPI is very questionable so whether the inflation that they publish is uh reflecting the econ economic reality on the ground or not is a different question in general my sense is that prices are going up much more than what the Bureau of Labor statistic seems to suggest but anyway the market is the market and the investment Community likes to believe what is good so bonds ried but at the same time the dollar went down you understand if a country like the US decides to print money they can print money like in Turkey and in Argentina and so forth over time the currency will then depreciate the question is by how much and my view would be that if the US embarks on quantitative easing if they cut interest rates in my view the dollar will be begin to weaken considerably now the question will then arise well weaken against what because the other currencies are not much better but my view is that it will weaken against Bitcoins uh not that I'm I mean bullish about Bitcoins but the market will perceive a weakening dollar as being positive for Bitcoins and it will weaken against precious metals Gold Silver Platinum which I suggest people hold to a certain extent not all the money they have in Gold Silver and platinum but a large percentage say 20 30% well it ran up and then it came down again recently uh it is I think at about an alltime low relative to gold is quite remarkable well the world is increasingly divided in two blocks the anglosaxon block under the leadership of the US uh and Europe plus Japan Australia New Zealand the so-called advanced economies the former Colonial Powers they haven't been able to shake their idea of Supremacy entirely and still travel around the world and lecture countries like China and India about human rights and democracy and and and and then you have the countries that are represented more by the bricks countries China India Russia and so forth these are economically new countries on the Block in the international trading system they weren't involved in international trade until just the last 30 40 years and these countries have become economically very powerful uh they also include 80% or close to 90% of the world's population these these countries have a different view of the American neocon view of the world where the world should be ruled by America because America is the best option for the world this rightly or wrongly you understand I'm not giving a judgment here I'm just telling you that countries like China and India will not accept a world ruled by America it may be the best option for the world to be ruled by America instead of being ruled by Russia being ruled by China I don't know but these countries they strongly oppose this kind of hegemony of the United States yes it takes a long time and the last time there was a big change in leadership in the world was between Britain and the us and it this change in leadership didn't cause a war the war came for other reasons but the war came mostly because Germany overtook Britain as an econom as the largest economic power in Europe in 1908 so the rise of China and China has now an industrial production that is much larger than the US that is something that the US doesn't like and they show it openly and this create in my view unnecessary tensions increasingly but you have to see the tragedy it has been written about this already more than a 100 years ago that uh one geopolitically China and Russia should not be together in other words one should split them apart but the neocons in the US in their incredible stupidity and incompetence have managed to cement a friendship between Russia and China this is unique in history that a group of people in Government Act entirely contrary to their interests the interest of America would be to be friendly with is Russia as a counterbalance to China military or be friendly with China as a counterbalance to Soviet power but no what the US has managed I mean this is a this is something for a record Guinness book of record in geopolitical mistakes what the US has managed to do to unite Russia and China is hard to believe but you need it in American state Department to be this incompetent they subsidized electric vehicles in Europe now they suddenly wake up and see that the Chinese can produce them much cheaper than their subsidized vehicle in Europe so they have of course they're all interventionists all of them you can talk to any government official he has become an interventionist nobody accepts a free market any longer so now having subsidize these industries they have to protect them it's a complete joke and who suffers the consumer
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