저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
채권 시장 약세와 금리 상승이 정부·연준 정책의 인플레이션 유발 때문에 지속될 것이라는 비관론을 펼침. 유가와 채권금리는 공통 원인(인플레)으로 함께 움직이며, 전쟁보다 통화·재정정책이 유가 상승의 주원인이라 주장. 연준은 시장이 88%로 반영한 금리 인상을 단행할 가능성이 높으며, 과거 팬데믹 때처럼 '공급충격'으로 치부하면 안 된다고 경고. 엔화 방어를 위한 개입은 엔 강세(엔캐리 청산) 리스크를 키우는 딜레마라고 평가. 달러는 결국 자체 무게로 붕괴할 것이라 봄. 미국 무역적자는 2025년 역대 최악 수준이며 올해도 개선이 미미하다고 지적. 중국은 대미 수출 감소에도 전체 흑자가 사상 최대로 늘었고, 관세 정책은 실패라고 비판. 금은 5,600달러 고점에서 4,300달러대로 조정받아 4,000달러를 지지선으로 보고 매수 기회라 주장. 은은 약 64달러로 고점 대비 절반 수준이라 역시 매수 적기이며, 광산주도 매우 저평가 상태라고 언급. 중간선거를 앞두고 금리·물가 상승은 공화당에 부담이 되며, 민주당이 의회를 장악하면 상황이 더 악화될 것이라 봄. 주식시장도 악재를 무시하다 어느 시점 급락할 수 있다고 경고. 스콧 베선트 재무장관은 거짓말을 일삼는다며 불신을 표명. 본인은 장기채·TIPS를 보유하지 않고 단기 머니마켓(90일물) 위주로 운용한다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
I think the market will raise rates regardless of what the government does. I mean, if the government actually did the right thing, which is not even among the, you know, possible options, which is to significantly reduce government spending. Is n't that right? This would help the bond market. I mean real , meaningful, credible fiscal policy.
But that's not even, you know, being considered at the moment. So I think all these tricks they might try won't work. In fact, they will likely backfire and accelerate the process of rising profitability because they will all be inflationary. Everything they do to try to contain yields involves creating more inflation.
But it is inflation that is causing the increase in profitability. So if your solution to high yields is to create more inflation to slow growth, you've actually accelerated what that growth causes. So, the government will never be able to succeed with the approaches it is considering or using. Well, I mean it worked a little bit because the yen moved off the lows, but I do n't know if it will work in the long run.
I think that higher rates in Japan and a weaker dollar will ultimately help strengthen the yen. And eventually the dollar will collapse under its own weight. There is a problem with the dollar. But also to the extent that the yen stops falling, which was the goal of the intervention, it creates a whole other problem, because if the yen doesn't fall, it's likely to rise.
And this means the curtailment of "yen carry trade" operations. And there is a lot of risk here too. So I think you're in a dead end no matter what you do when it comes to the yen. Either way, it will create a problem. Well , he's right that there is currently a very strong correlation between bond yields and oil prices.
I mean, you can almost tell what the other one is doing by looking at one. But this is largely due to the fact that inflation is pushing up both oil prices and bond yields. So they have a common cause. But yeah, I think the way the markets, you know, trade or the way the algorithms are programmed, they view oil prices as a leading indicator of inflation, and that affects bonds because bonds are very sensitive to inflation.
So, it doesn't absolve the administration or the Fed of responsibility if they just say, "Hey, we can blame it all on oil prices, so we don't have to worry about our own policy mistakes ." And the thesis that we have the best bond market in the world is simply not true. In fact, compared to our history, this is the worst bond market we've ever had.
If you look at the last 10 years, the profitability, in my opinion , is the worst in the last 100 years. So , our bond market is feeling bad, but yes, bond markets are suffering all over the world, so this is not a unique problem. Perhaps you can single out Switzerland or someone else, but most countries are seeing bond prices fall and yields rise.
But that's because most governments and central banks make the same mistakes as our government and our central bank. And that goes for Scott Bessant. And by the way, I don't believe a word Scott Bessant says. I mean, he just tells one lie after another. He's too smart to believe most of what he says.
So he's just saying what he knows Trump wants to hear. His job is really to sell Trump's lies, trying to give them plausibility. In fact, this is the main job of everyone in the Trump administration . No matter what position you hold, your job is to flatter the president, to tell everyone how great he is, how great his policies are, and how wonderful everything is because of his great policies and the greatness of the man himself.
And I'm sure that's exactly what Trump is doing . He reviews all the interviews to make sure that enough positive things are said about him. Meanwhile, when Trump speaks, he simply praises himself. He simply brags about his achievements and himself. He takes credit for everything, even if there is nothing to be thankful for.
I said, if anything, he has now scared people away from bonds by admitting there is a problem. He's worried, he's trying to do something, it was like a signal to action. Oh, Scott Bessant is worried about Treasury bonds. Oh, I should be worried too. I'd better sell my bonds before things get worse. And profitability is now higher than ever before.
And by the way, the ransom isn't even big enough to actually matter, but the very fact that we're doing it symbolically is a sign of a problem. But, as I said then, they will need a much larger buyout if they hope to see any change. But I think the Fed will have to do the buying, because when the Treasury buys long-term bonds, it pays for it by selling short-term ones.
So it's just, you know, yield curve manipulation. But when the Fed does this, of course, they simply take bonds out of circulation by printing more money. So the Fed has a lot more resources because they can, well, run a printing press. But, of course, when the Fed does it, it drives up inflation much more than when the Treasury does it.
But we're probably getting there . I don't know if it's the Americans who sell more. We know that foreign central banks are selling. I mean, they do it. That's right. And they definitely aren't buying in the same volumes as before. I assume that private investors, we know that the Norwegian State Pension Fund has announced, I think, a sale of about $60 billion worth of Treasury bonds .
And I don't even know how many Treasury bonds Americans own. Most Americans, I think, invest in the stock market. They are not necessarily in the bond market. The returns have been so meager for so long that you would think that a private investor would have dumped Treasury bonds years ago. I mean, maybe there are insurance companies or other businesses that need to match liabilities with assets.
They may be buying Treasury bonds. Banks hold Treasury bonds because of the favorable treatment they receive from auditors. But I don't own any Treasury bonds. Do you own any? I mean, I have money markets. So in my money markets, I have, well, 90-day bills, short-term. But when you talk about long-term bonds, I don't own any, I wouldn't even come close to them.
So I don't trust TIPS because, first of all, they are tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). So, I don't consider this an accurate measure of inflation. Look, I'd rather own gold. And gold has so far outperformed TIPS over the last 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 years. That is, if you were worried about inflation and bought TIPS, you didn't make much money.
I think it was better than regular Treasury bonds, but not by much. Look where you are with the gold. Gold went from less than 300 to over 4,000. Well, first of all, I think the probability went up because, in A, we didn't get a weak reading. If we got a figure below expectations, people would say, "Okay, there will be no increase." Because it gives the Fed an excuse not to raise rates.
So, there was always a chance that we would get a soft score, which we didn't get. We got a figure that meets expectations, but those expectations still don't indicate progress toward reaching 2%. And perhaps worse, the baseline was actually slightly higher than expected. They expected, I think, a growth of 0.2 , and in a month it was 0.3.
This is one tenth of a percent. This may seem like a small amount, but it's 50 % more than they expected. So I think that was part of it too. Like, hey, you know, if he doesn't raise the bar, if Walsh doesn't raise it next week, I mean it's, you know, time to either act or step aside, right ? I mean, he talked a lot about the need to fight inflation and that inflation was too high.
And, you know, in his last speech in Jackson Hole, he mentioned, I don't know how many times, raising rates, at least half a dozen times. So, he has every reason in the world to raise the stakes. If he doesn't do it now, and with the markets giving him an 88% probability, I do n't think there's ever been a situation where the markets gave an 88% probability that the Fed would do something and the Fed didn't do what the markets expected.
Because the Fed generally doesn't like to surprise the markets. She likes to do what the markets expect. So I think it would surprise a lot of people if the Fed didn't raise rates. They made the same excuse at the beginning of the COVID pandemic. Oh, we don't need to do anything. It's just supply shock due to COVID, and look where it got us.
There were people who made the same argument in the 1970s when oil prices were rising. They really took it the other way around. The price of oil responded to our monetary and fiscal policies. And I think that the rise in oil prices is largely due to our monetary and fiscal policies . It's not all about war.
And the war is also unlikely to end anytime soon. I mean, unless we're willing to completely surrender and give Iran everything it wants, it does n't seem to have any incentive to give in. I think we're almost done bombing them. So, you know what we have? Now we have resorted to economic sanctions. They won't work.
So, this is now a reality. You know, there will be this uncertainty in the market for a long time, there will be supply disruptions. We will have high oil prices, and that will be a big problem. But, you know, it's not just about oil prices. Everything is getting more expensive. Maybe this one report, all prices are going up.
And that's why you can't just brush everything off. And, of course, if there is indeed a supply shock, monetary policy should be contractionary. Hey, if we have fewer goods to buy, we need less money. We need to reduce the money supply along with the supply of goods. If the supply of goods falls and we do not react, prices will rise.
You know, the Fed has to keep an eye on these things. You know, when the Fed was created, it was created to provide a flexible money supply. It was supposed to reduce the money supply when such supply cuts occurred. But, of course, it doesn't do that. But also, what happens if higher oil prices lead to a recession, what would that mean?
This will mean larger budget deficits, a weaker economy. This means that the Fed will simply start printing more money, and that will push up prices for everything, including oil. Our trade Look at our trade balance. Last year, 2025 , was the worst year for commodity trading. Last year, we had the largest merchandise trade deficit in our history.
He's not that bad this year. It is on track to become the fourth worst year ever. But in terms of numbers, it has barely improved. This is terrible. The country that has achieved the greatest improvement in its trade balance is China. He has grown a lot. Last year, China had a record trade surplus, and this year they will break that record.
And if you look at bilateral trade between the US and China. Yes , our trade deficit with China has decreased, right? Trump achieved this. But our trade deficit with everyone else has increased because we are simply buying things from other countries that used to buy from China. Meanwhile, China sells us fewer goods, but sells more goods to everyone else.
So what Americans don't get , other consumers get. But China is actually better off trading less with the Americans and more with everyone else , which is exactly what I said would happen when Trump first imposed these tariffs. So, his policy was a complete disaster. I think people should buy more gold now.
We are seeing a pretty good pullback from the highs. You know, we reached 5,600, and now we're down to just over 4,300 . So, I think this is a good dip to buy. I believe 4000 is a support level right now . So you are still closer to the bottom than if you were looking at the old highs as resistance.
But ultimately, I think we'll go much higher. Silver is worth about $64. This is approximately half of the maximum it reached in February- March. So, I think this is a great pullback to buy. I think mining stocks are still very cheap. Therefore, I think people should buy it. And I think over the next few months there will be more upward pressure on rates and more pressure on the government to try to stop them from rising.
And of course, you know, we're getting closer to the midterm elections, and rising interest rates and rising consumer prices are a bigger problem for Republicans, which means a bigger problem for the country, because I think if Democrats take control of Congress, no matter how bad the Republicans are doing, it's going to get even worse.
And at some point, the stock market could easily take notice and collapse. You know, the stock market can ignore bad news for a while before, well, suddenly, you know, it stops ignoring it.
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