저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 증시는 AI 자본지출과 기대수익에 의존하며 밸류에이션이 높아 조정 위험이 크다고 본다. 금리 급등 시 대형 기술주 매도가 연쇄될 수 있다. 금은 달러 가치 하락으로 장기 상승, 유가는 전쟁 이후 상승 및 전략비축유 고갈로 사상 최고치 상회 전망. 비트코인은 거품 붕괴로 큰 하락을 예상하며 비트코인 보유 기업들의 파산 가능성을 언급. 미국 주택가격은 금 기준으로 하락할 것이라 봄. 포트폴리오로 금·은 10~20%, 해외 단기채·해외 주식(가치주, 신흥국) 선호.
다듬은 글
I believe the US stock market is holding up because of AI and all the capital spending , as well as expectations of excess returns from AI, which I believe are supporting demand in the US market . And I believe that the American stock market is disproportionately dependent on companies related to artificial intelligence.
And I think if you exclude them, the rest of the market does n't feel very good. So you can't just look at these capitalization-weighted indices, which are so heavily influenced by hyperscalers and other tech companies that directly benefit from AI spending. How long this will last—no one knows. But the market is very expensive unless the most optimistic assumptions about AI turn out to be true.
The price/ earnings ratios of these stocks are much better than those of the "Big Seven". And these "Big Seven " shares are simply too popular. I don't like to buy what everyone else is buying. Now many people own stocks like Taiwan Semiconductor, Samsung, or similar. And if you invest in, say, the Korean market, it's pretty hard not to have some stake.
But we hold a smaller share. That's the thing. If you look at our investments in these stocks, our share is less than their weight in the indices. So we have a larger stake in value-oriented basic materials companies. In this regard, I expressed my concern about the valuation of the technology sector not because of a complete lack of investment, but because of an undervalued share.
Well, I buy everything at the right price. The question is, what price is right? Those stocks you mention that haven't risen much in the last year should be considered in the broader context of how much they rose in the years before that. They have all shown pretty impressive returns and account for a significant portion of the S&P 500 index.
So, if we get a larger market sell-off, which is possible. I mean, if yields rise sharply: 10-year bonds cross the 5% mark, perhaps to 5.5%, and 30-year bonds to 6%, although this is still a low yield, despite the fact that it is now the highest since 2007. But if we see more significant growth, I wouldn't be surprised by a significant pullback in the stock market.
And if we see a massive withdrawal of funds by investors who have never been so involved in the stock market before. If we start seeing mass withdrawals, then know that these tech stocks will automatically sell off, because that's how it always happens . When the S&P index is sold, the index fund must sell stocks from its basket, and these are mostly just such stocks.
Therefore, I believe that the sell-off of these shares could become much larger. But the funds I manage are used in international strategies. All my strategies are global, so the likelihood of me investing in SpaceX or something like that is pretty low. Although, you know, I have shares in US oil companies, tobacco companies, and some agricultural assets in the US.
I own a certain amount of copper. I even own some tech stocks, believe it or not. But this is meager compared to what other investors usually have. Where I really have a significant stake is in the mining sector. This is where my portfolio is completely different from a typical one, where there is usually no investment in gold or silver mining companies.
This weighed on my performance for years, even though I had made great profits from these stocks for a decade starting in 2000 . But the last few years the results have been really good. And I expect this to continue . Well, I don't have a specific goal, because, you know, there's no "ceiling" for the price of gold, just as there's no "bottom" for the dollar.
The dollar could continue to fall, as it has been doing, you know, since the Federal Reserve was created—the dollar is constantly losing value. In fact, when the Fed was founded, the price of gold was $20 an ounce. Gold has not changed. An ounce of gold is still an ounce of gold. Only the value of the money the Fed prints has changed.
But if the price of gold can go from 20 to 4,000, it can go from 4,000 to 800,000. It's the same math. The only question is how long it will take. I mean, the trajectory of the decline will accelerate because the price of gold has been rising more rapidly lately, which indicates a faster loss of value for the dollar, and this is the result of our debt bomb.
We have over 40 trillion in national debt. We will get from 40 trillion to 50 trillion much faster than we went from 30 to 40 trillion, and we did that quite quickly. But they will start accumulating faster and faster, and this will put even more pressure on the dollar and pressure on gold to rise. I bought a lot more energy stocks myself during the last big pullback, it seems, at the beginning of the year, but I still think they will go up.
In fact, developing artificial intelligence will consume enormous amounts of energy and raw materials. So I think these oil companies, like many other energy companies, will make good money. So, I believe that Trump and his administration are wrong to predict a significant drop in oil prices. They're talking about $40 or $50 a barrel, you know, when the Iran war ends.
Right now, I have no idea when this will all actually end. Probably not soon, and maybe not even during Trump's term. But I think that regardless , oil prices will go up, not down, when the war is over. And we will also have no strategic oil reserve left, because we will almost completely exhaust it.
It will be empty before this war is over . The record high was around $140 per barrel back in 2008. I think we'll go above that . So I would say at least $200 a barrel. Maybe more. But if oil was able to reach 140 in 2008, it can certainly rise much higher in 2028. Well, if the price were to prove me wrong, it would have happened a long time ago, because it has risen significantly since I first started criticizing Bitcoin.
But yes, Bitcoin may be a little higher, but it actually fell a lot before the recent rebound . And I think Bitcoin will go down. I don't think it has much growth potential. I think the bubble has burst. I think the maximum has already been reached. I think Bitcoin is in for a significant drop. For me, it was never about the price.
It was only about fundamental indicators. And when it's a bubble, you never know how big it can get before it bursts. But with all of that, you know, all the hype around Bitcoin, especially after Trump was elected, all the ETF money, it briefly jumped to 126,000, which was a new record, it couldn't hold on.
It couldn't even hold at 100,000. You know, none of those who consistently believed in Bitcoin even remotely predicted such a price three years ago. They were all talking about 200,000, 300,000, 500,000. So these guys had absolutely no idea what they thought the price of Bitcoin should be . And I'm sure all the investors who rushed into Bitcoin ETFs when they came out expected the price of Bitcoin to be much higher than it is now.
And I think they will eventually give up. I mean, most of them still hold assets and hope. I think this could open a "trap " and lead to a massive wave of liquidations and a series of bankruptcies of all these companies that hold Bitcoin in their reserves. There are many companies whose only business model is buying Bitcoin.
And I believe these companies will go bankrupt. And when that happens, what will they do with their Bitcoin? Well, they'll sell it. Yeah, well , again, a lot depends on who gives me that 10 grand, and I don't know how much you have in total. Is this most of your money? Is it almost all your money? And I don't know where the rest of your money is.
But in general, for an investment portfolio, I would advise keeping 10% to 20% in physical precious metals . That is, gold, silver , something like that. And the rest should be invested, and I would prefer stocks over bonds. But if you are going to buy bonds, it is better to choose foreign ones. So I would invest maybe 20% in short-term high-quality foreign bonds and the rest in foreign stocks.
Right now, I would favor value stocks over growth stocks, and emerging markets over developed markets. I wouldn't completely abandon the technology sector. I would hold a little bit, but, you know, I would reduce the stake given the valuation. I simply believe that American stocks are so overvalued that there are better investments abroad.
I myself have American stocks, but their proportion is relatively small compared to international assets. Gold will outperform home ownership in terms of returns, but there are other reasons why you might want to buy a home. So, it all depends on the circumstances, but I think that real estate prices in the US in 5 years will be lower than they are today , at least in terms of gold.
They can be significantly lower. But, of course, you know that you're borrowing money to buy a house, taking out a mortgage. So there are a lot of other factors that can determine whether you want to own your own home, and also what the rental market is like in your area, and all that other stuff . But real estate prices will decline.
There is no doubt about this in real terms. And the same thing will happen with stocks. Stocks will continue to fall in price if they are valued in gold . If there is a recession, it will lead to even more inflation, because when there is a recession, they create more inflation. This is how they stimulate the economy during a recession— by creating inflation.
So recession itself increases inflation risk. So, inflation is always a risk. Lowering rates is a bigger mistake than raising them, but the mistake is that they won't raise them enough, even if they do. I'm not saying they can't raise. I think the chances are higher that they will lower the rates or at least do nothing.
Maybe gold in general , but I think emerging markets , that particular basket of international stocks, could be gold, physical gold. You know, probably the S&P in 12 months, I would bet that in a year it will be higher in nominal terms. I would probably own Treasury bonds rather than Bitcoin. Well, they will probably eventually become one company, but in reality, SpaceX may be more overvalued than Tesla, so maybe Tesla.
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