저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 행정부 인플레이션 대응은 실질적으로 불가능하며 결국 Fed처럼 통화 확대로 귀결될 것이라 주장. 금·은은 전쟁·인플레이션·실질금리 논리로 장기 상승을 전망하고 광산주 재평가를 기대. 미국채 수요 약화와 Fed의 채권 매입으로 달러 훼손 가능성 언급. 스페이스X 밸류에이션은 과열로 보고 공급 증가로 가격 하락 가능성 제시. 신흥국 주식과 원자재 전반에 우호적 견해.
다듬은 글
The middle class is being destroyed. This is exactly what is happening now. That's why consumer confidence indicators are at record lows. This is why Trump's popularity is at an all-time low . This is where the affordability crisis comes from. People can't afford things. It's not that things are more expensive, it's that people have become poorer because the government has taken away their purchasing power.
He robbed them through inflation to cover all these expenses. We now have at least 50% more government machinery than before COVID, even though taxes have been reduced. So how do we maintain such a huge government? I mean, it's not free. So every time you go to the store, you are paying for the government through higher prices.
Of course, there are people who benefit from inflation because they own a bunch of assets, the price of which also increases. And they don't care that food is more expensive, that fuel is more expensive, because these are minor expenses in the overall scheme of things. But when you live paycheck to paycheck and spend a significant portion of your money on essential items , their rising cost becomes a huge problem for you.
And that is exactly what is happening now. The middle class is effectively disappearing, or what's left of it , because we've been exterminating it for decades. I don't think he's going to change anything. I don't think he'll do anything at all . I think he's just talking to gain some credibility. Like, you know, there's a new sheriff in town.
I'll clean up the streets, okay? I mean, you better be careful. I am now serious about inflation and price stability. But in the end he will do nothing . Because if he really decides to lower inflation to 2%, it would mean causing a massive recession. It will lead to a collapse in stock, real estate, and bond prices.
It will force the US government to make significant spending cuts or tax increases. It could easily provoke another financial crisis. Many bad things will happen to achieve this goal. And ultimately, he will do as Powell, Yellen , Bernanke, and Greenspan did. He will print money, he will create inflation.
You know, he said that inflation is a choice, and he's right , because making the opposite choice is politically impossible. And can you imagine, I mean , Trump just blasted Powell for what he did. Imagine what he would say if Worst just started aggressively raising rates and reducing the balance sheet, and mortgage rates were rising, home prices were falling, we would be in a recession, and he would continue to tighten policy.
I mean, what the hell would Trump do under those circumstances? Well, first of all, you have to put everything in perspective, because gold and silver had risen so significantly in the run-up to the war that a pullback was inevitable, and the war was the catalyst. In fact, one of the reasons for the strength was the fact that it was pretty obvious that some kind of war was going to happen, and the markets began to anticipate it and price it in.
So by the time the war actually started, it was more of a "buy on rumors, sell on facts" kind of thing. But the prevailing view in the markets was that anything that prolonged the war, forced the Fed to pause, kept oil prices high, meant the Fed would not cut rates, and might even raise them, and that put metals on the defensive because everything trades based on expectations of what the Fed would do with rates.
But I think this misses the bigger picture, because even if the Fed raises rates, it's not necessarily bad for gold if inflation is rising faster than rates, because it's real rates, not nominal rates, that move gold and silver. I mean, even if the Fed raised rates to 10% and inflation was 20%, that's a negative return of 10%.
This is not an incentive to hold dollars and lose 10% of purchasing power every year. This is an incentive to hold gold and silver instead and preserve your purchasing power. So I think once we get rid of the excessive overbought condition, we will go up. And I think eventually we will see a reconnection as investors realize that war is good for gold and silver, not bad.
Because war, after all, is inflationary. Not the war itself, but the way governments pay for it: by printing money and increasing budget deficits. And wars also drain resources that could otherwise go into the production of consumer goods, and instead are used for military equipment and things like that.
Therefore, during war, fewer goods are produced for consumers to buy, and more money is printed to pay for it. So this is a recipe for inflation, and that's good for gold and silver. Yes, I think that's very significant, and I think that this trend will continue, and it will become very problematic for the United States.
Because to the extent that central banks prefer gold to dollars, they don't buy Treasury bonds. And if they don't buy them, who will? The government has to sell them. And if foreign central banks don't want them, then someone else has to replace them. And to find these new buyers, the government may have to offer a much higher yield.
The problem is that we can't afford to pay a higher yield. So, as an option, perhaps it is the US central bank that will buy Treasury bonds that foreign central banks are no longer buying. But this is extremely inflationary because when, say, the central bank of Poland buys bonds, it has to use dollars from its reserves.
But when the Fed buys bonds, it creates more dollars out of thin air. So, when the Central Bank of Poland buys bonds, it is not an inflationary factor . But when the Federal Reserve does it, it is. And so if the Federal Reserve starts printing a bunch of money to buy bonds that other central banks no longer want to buy, you know, the dollar will be destroyed and prices will skyrocket .
Investors still don't believe in the price of gold. They still expect the price to fall. They think gold or silver may be in a bubble , so they are unwilling to factor in these higher prices in the long term, which is what determines their valuation of mining stocks . But, obviously, at some point this perception will change.
I think reality will take its toll , and analysts will come to terms with the fact that gold and silver prices will not only not fall, but will continue to rise. And then they will have to completely revise their earnings forecasts and valuations for these stocks. But the whole market is somewhat corrupted.
I mean, it's all based on perception. Look at the values that investors attribute to AI companies. Look at the valuation SpaceX just gave. SpaceX doesn't even make any money. SpaceX is still losing money. But investors don't care. They are so optimistic about the future that they are willing to pay 100 times their revenue just to have a chance at it happening.
So, it's just perception, but at some point investors will look at the reliability of precious metals miners as something more valuable than just playing dice with a company like SpaceX. I prefer buying individual stocks. I believe there is a lot of inefficiency in this area . The best and most talented analysts are not necessarily involved in metals and mining.
So, if you have a good portfolio manager , a good specialist, he usually has an advantage. So instead of buying everything in a row, I'd rather be selective, buy what looks cheap and promising, and avoid what seems expensive and, you know, too much of a lottery. But there are a lot of opportunities, obviously, not just in large and mid- sized companies, but also in many of these smaller firms.
I think at some point they will be worth much more, even if they don't develop to the level we hope for, because at some point investors will be more willing to speculate in this sector. And when the "hot" money arrives, prices will skyrocket. So now is a great time to invest. What really drives SpaceX is the extremely small amount of free float.
Only about 4% of the company was sold. So, 96% of the shares were not sold . And you have, you know, all these institutional and private investors, and even though the total value of the shares available is, well, or was at the IPO price, $75 billion, that's still not a lot when everyone in the world wants to buy them.
And so people, you know, have had a real auction fever to get a piece of that pie, regardless of how much that piece is actually worth. But over time, a large portion of the shares held by early investors and employees will come to the market. And the supply of shares, I think, will grow faster than demand.
So the price will go down. So my advice to people who want SpaceX is to wait, because I think the opportunity to buy will be much better in the future than now, because you're overpaying for a success that hasn't happened yet. Right now, the main business they have that is viable is Starlink, and it's hard to understand how much Starlink is actually worth or what competition it will face in the future.
They are currently making a good living by renting out their excess computing power to companies like Anthropic, but this is all temporary. You know, they won't have that kind of income in 5 or 10 years. This is just a kind of temporary solution during this hyperscaler race in AI. So they can use it.
But how much is their space business really worth? I have no idea. You know, it seems to me that there is complete corruption right now , especially in crypto markets and prediction markets, which are not even regulated by securities laws. All these guys have access to inside information. Sometimes it seems like Trump is writing on Truth Social to manipulate the market because his friends have already placed bets and are waiting for his posts to make money.
The irony is that the Bidens had corruption, the Republicans were right to point it out, and the Democrats tried to downplay it. But what Biden did is nothing compared to what the Trumps are doing. However, this suits Republicans perfectly. So they are complete hypocrites. It's the same with this war, when the war in Iran started, I predicted how it would end.
Not only was it unconstitutional because Congress had not declared war, and Trump had broken his promise not to , but I said it was a mistake—we couldn't win. We effectively surrendered, pretending that this was the greatest victory in history, even though we emerged from the war in a weaker position than we were before it.
We have achieved nothing, the regime is in power, and now they will have much more influence and weight than before the war. Yes, they don't have as big an arsenal as usual, but who cares? They will rebuild it with the money they earn from selling oil, receiving $300 billion from an investment fund, and fees from every ship in the Strait of Hormuz.
They will shovel money. Perhaps the missiles and bombs we launched were worth more than what we destroyed. I buy emerging market stocks. They are very cheap compared to developed markets, especially the US. And I like all the resources. Look what happens to copper. While gold retreated, copper set new record highs.
But look at coffee prices, they are at record highs. Look at the prices of livestock— also at record highs. These goods have nothing in common except that they all become more expensive due to inflation. So I think it's worth investing in resources in general. I think this will benefit Canada, as its economy is rich in resources.
So, I think that economies that have a lot of resources to export will benefit from what happens to prices.
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