저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
연준이 금리를 실제로 인상하지 않아 금리 인하가 빨리 올 것으로 봄. 재정적자(연 3조달러 이상)와 국가부채 부담 때문에 연준은 긴축을 못하고, 실질금리 하락으로 금 상승이 지속될 것이라 주장. 금은 2027년 5,500달러 이상으로 오를 것으로 전망. 미국 주식은 실질 기준 고평가로 보고 외국 주식과 금·은 보유를 권고. 과거 25년간 조언 성과를 근거로 제시.
다듬은 글
I stand by these predictions. That is, despite all the Fed's talk about raising rates, they have n't actually raised them. And I still think they'll lower them sooner. That does n't mean they shouldn't raise their rates. In fact, they should raise the stakes much more than they plan to or at least pretend to.
But I don't think they will . I think their strategy is to talk about raising rates and try to get credit for fighting inflation without actually raising them and destroying the economy, the housing market, the stock market and, you know, putting the government in a very difficult position, given the huge national debt, which is now over $40 trillion and growing rapidly, and over $3 trillion in annual budget deficits that need to be financed.
Higher interest rates will create huge problems for the government. So, you know, I think the markets haven't factored that into their pricing yet. Copper has hit a new all-time high, and I think that 's a good leading indicator of where other commodities are headed, including gold, but I think we're headed much higher.
We reached 5,500 in January-February. I think we will rise well above this level in 2027. No, no, I would vote for a significant raise. I don't know, at least a couple hundred basis points. And more importantly, I would vote for a substantial reduction in the size of the Fed's balance sheet right now and a commitment to, you know, start removing the excess liquidity that the Fed has injected into the market, especially post-COVID, and even pre-COVID.
So, a lot needs to be done to clean up the mess the Fed has created. Unfortunately, they won't do that. It doesn't matter whether the Fed raises rates by 25 basis points . This is insignificant. Inflation is rising much faster than that . All these rate increases are only nominal. They mean nothing to gold .
Gold depends on real interest rates. And as long as inflation accelerates faster than the Fed raises rates, real interest rates fall. And that is exactly what is happening now. The problem is that the Fed doesn't have the political courage to raise rates high enough to really negatively impact gold, because the government wouldn't be able to stand it.
We can barely cope with the rates we have now. You know, the government already spends about 1.2 trillion a year, maybe more, on debt interest. And even if rates remain at current levels, let alone increase, by the time Trump leaves office, we will be spending over $2 trillion a year on interest on the national debt.
If the Fed were to raise interest rates to the level that I believe is necessary to really put the inflation genie back in the bottle, we would be facing four or five trillion a year in interest costs. I mean, that five trillion a year is practically all of the government's tax revenue. How can the Fed put the government in a position where it needs all of its tax revenue just to pay interest on the national debt, leaving nothing for anything else?
So, the Fed will never pursue a tight monetary policy. She will always be soft. Therefore, monetary policy will always favor gold. And that's why gold, at the beginning of this century or millennium, you know, in 1999-2000, was worth less than $300 an ounce. It is no coincidence that gold has performed so well .
This is because the Fed has been too soft all this time. And it has trapped itself in a trap where it will never be able to implement a tight monetary policy. So, you know, gold has only one way to go— up. This does not mean that it will grow in a straight line. This does not mean that there will be no setbacks.
They will be . But the general direction will be upward. And the growth trajectory will accelerate over time. The government should do the right thing. And I estimate the probability of this to be almost zero. But what if the government really radically reduced government spending across the board so that we significantly reduced or eliminated the annual budget deficit?
So if the government only spent what it collected in taxes, so that over time the debt could go down, instead of continuing to explode. And if the Federal Reserve were to allow interest rates to rise much higher than a few 25 basis point increases. And if the Fed really, you know, really reduced its balance sheet, and we would have tight monetary policy.
If we did all of this, and of course under these conditions, we would see a collapse in real estate prices, a stock market crash, a significant and prolonged recession with a large increase in unemployment. If all of that happened, yes, I think gold would go down too. But I don't expect any of that to happen, which is why I continue to advise people to buy gold.
There is a saying that the US government will eventually do the right thing after exhausting all other options. And this means that we will not be able to prevent a currency crisis or a sovereign debt crisis. We will continue to pursue this reckless policy until we have no choice. And by then the price of gold will be much higher.
You know, that's why former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson was in the news recently, because he said the US needs an " emergency response" plan in case of a sovereign debt crisis, when, for example, foreigners decide they no longer want to buy or hold Treasury bonds. He didn't say we need to come up with a plan now to prevent this.
We need to become fiscally responsible before the crisis hits. He essentially said that a crisis is inevitable because we will never do what is right. So we just need a plan in case things go wrong. So , you know, it's going to go awry . The only question is how much longer will it take? Well, it's worth going back and looking at how I expressed my pessimistic view from an investment strategy perspective.
For the past 25 years, I have not recommended that people keep money in cash. I did not recommend them to play for a decline in the S&P index. I did not recommend that they buy US bonds or Treasury securities. I said I was pessimistic about stocks, so it's better to buy gold than stocks. If you did that, you would be better off.
The stock market has risen in dollar terms over the past 25 years, but it has fallen in gold terms. So the people who heard me skeptically evaluate stocks in 1999, 2000, 2001 —if they had sold all their stocks and invested their money in gold, they would have more money today than those who ignored me and just waited out that period.
Of course, I also didn't recommend owning only gold. This was not my strategy. I said that American stocks are overvalued. I expect them to fall in real terms. I never thought they would fall in nominal terms because I always believed inflation would be high. So in an inflationary period, it's hard for anything to fall because money depreciates very quickly.
Therefore, even if you stand still and money loses value, it is equivalent to falling. I advised people to buy foreign stocks instead of American stocks. And, in particular, certain types of shares, their value in different countries. And these were mixed results. So, between 2000 and 2011, you made much more money from foreign stocks than from American stocks.
However, from about 2011 to 2024, you got much higher returns from US stocks. You still made money on foreign stocks, just not as much as people on US stocks. But since last year, foreign stocks have once again outperformed American stocks. So I think we're entering another long period where you're going to get better results.
I mean, my main strategy last year was to forget about gold, because gold stocks, you know, " destroyed" the U.S. stock market last year. That is, shares of gold mining companies increased by an average of 140%, while the S&P increased by only a fraction of that. But even my foreign dividend-paying stocks are up over 60% last year.
And it was the year of the biggest advance, you know, probably since the dot-com bubble burst. In fact, I think it was bigger than any of those early years. So people who listened to my advice in the long run feel good. Now, it often depends on when people start listening to me. That is, there are people who started listening to me in 2010-2011, then stopped and lost money because we had a few bad years and they exited the market.
But this also applies to those who were in the US market. You could have bought American stocks at a bad time and suffered significant losses. And if you give up, you lose. Sometimes it is very difficult to predict the market over any multi-year period, two, three, four years. You may be in a correction period.
But no. I mean, I've been saying clearly for years: stay away from cash, stay away from bonds. And in fact, I recently read that these are the worst 10 years for bonds in the last 100 years. And I was very, very negative about bonds, not at all like I was about stocks, because stocks will increase in price due to inflation.
But the price of bonds is not increasing. That's the problem. You will suffer huge losses with bonds if there is high inflation. So my advice to avoid bonds was excellent, because they have produced huge losses, especially when adjusted for inflation . But I didn't tell people to avoid stocks. I was just saying: buy foreign stocks instead of American stocks.
And I always said: buy gold and buy silver. By the way, silver also outperformed the stock market. When I started buying silver in 1999-2000, it was less than $5 an ounce. So, the profitability of precious metals was excellent. I insisted on my point, and they only laughed at me. When I appeared on financial channels in 2004, 2005, and 2006 and advised buying gold at $400 or $450 an ounce.
They laughed at me. They accused me of being just a gold dealer and said it was reckless to advise people to buy gold and silver. Perhaps the best thing they could do was to buy gold and silver.
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