저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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미국 주식시장이 역사상 가장 긴 호황기를 지나 큰 약세장(최악의 bear market)이 올 것으로 우려. 2008년 이후 부채가 급증했고 미국 달러는 기축통화 지위가 흔들리는 중. 인플레이션이 재발해 금리가 다시 오를 가능성, 일본식 재정·통화 확대 우려. 현재 달러 현금 비중이 높으며 공매도는 하지 않았고, 실물자산 선호. 지정학적 전쟁 위험도 경고.
다듬은 글
just let me quickly clarify what I have said and I will say again the next time we have a bare market and I don't know when it's coming but I know we're going to have more bare markets and I know that the next one is going to be the worst in my lifetime 2008 was a problem because of too much debt look out the window since 2008 the debt has skyrocketed everywhere even China has a lot of debt now so all I'm saying is and I don't know when it's coming that the next time it's going to be a nasty horrible disastrous bare market now how I see the world right now one of the things that history has taught us is the year before an American election usually the market American Market is fairly strong and that's because all the politicians know the election is coming and so they try to make everybody happy and it's happened again I mean we had 2023 has been a reasonably Good Year in most markets around the world but we're talking about America certainly in the American market so now now what your question is now what yes yes yes history is great for 2023 but what about 2024 well first of all it's the longest period in American history without a problem we have never had such a long period doesn't mean it won't go on 40 years I have no idea never has but it who knows who knows but I'm starting to see signs and by the way I have not sold anything things short I do have a lot of cash but I'm not been shorting I'm starting to see signs you see the signs that fewer and fewer Shares are going up they go up every day some shares go up every day a lot of new people are coming into the market inexperienced people coming in and they all talk about how much fun it is and how easy how easy it is to make money well it's never been easy for me but if it's easy for somebody that's probably a bad sign so I see some of the signs the dead is skyrocketing some of the signs that have happened before so I'm worried but I'm not shorting yet often at the end of a long bull market there's a blowoff you know where everything just skyrockets I don't know if we're going to have one again but I'm waiting in case we do and I hope I'm smart enough to short it if it happens if it happens this way if we do start seeing the blowoff period I will be sure Ting into the blowoff your other question part of your question was maybe you should wait until it fails and that is sometimes an extremely good way to do things the the US dollar is the world's main currency now unfortunately that's beginning to change because more and more people are starting to see that the US debt goes skyrocketing and you know in Washington if you have the world's Reserve currency it's supposed to be neutral anybody can use it for anything but unfortunately Washington is now changing those rules if Washington gets angry at you they cut you off you know they say you cannot use the US dollar well many people including our friends are starting to say wait wait wait wait this is serious it could happen to us it could happen anybody and so many people are now because of Washington are starting to accelerate to look for something else to compete with a dollar including me I'm looking to I don't see anything on the horizon yet should be the Chinese currency but it's a blocked currency so it cannot be the Chinese Ren MBE and I don't know I own a lot of US Dollars and I own them because I know that in turmoil people look for a safe haven and they will think the US dollar is a safe haven but as I just said that's coming to an end so now I am I and others are accelerating the search for what do we do next what do we use if we cannot use dollars and the last Reserve current was British pound you know in 1923 British pound was it was it there was no there was no competitor there was no number to 50 years later 1976 to be exact Britain went bankrupt IMF had to fly into Heathrow and pay their bills it was that serious that is a is the currency they went from number one to 50 years later bankrupt that's what happened and during that period of time you know it was miserable in in Britain you had you couldn't take money out of the country you could take only a little bit if you went on a foreign trip you know with the value of the currency went down almost every week were serious exchange controls there were high debts High interest rates Britain was a disaster now there were always people who did well in Britain even I mean the Beatles didn't leave the Beatles state made a lot of money but most people who were in Britain in those 50 years did not have a good time that is what's always happened in countries and currencies which go through this am I looking forward to it no but I'm just saying what has happened in the past and I don't see how we we the us can avoid that maybe you have an answer and people will in those days moved from the British pound to the US dollar my problem is I don't know where to move which currency to move to now cuz I don't see another one by the way in the 1970s the United States was still a creditor Nation I know it's shock us was still a creditor nation in the 1970s believe it or not well when these things happen of course real assets do better than Fiat money because people want something real whether it's gold or cotton or whatever it happens to be and so yes it will be another push for people to own real assets I don't like any of this but I have to face facts and so it will help real assets Commodities more than anything more than other things it's not just retail invest it happens to all of us you know I wish that retail investors were the only bad investors or the only ones who make mistakes everybody makes mistakes I I repeat I do own a lot of US dollars right now I don't see a great future but I see a lot of US Dollars in My Portfolio because I see problems coming and usually people think the US dollar is a safe haven when there're serious problems we we've had three central banks in American history the first two disappeared for many reasons this one's going to disappear too someday because they keep making so many mistakes but we haven't had I can only think of a couple of good Central Bankers in our history and in since 1913 and Po's not one of them he's not on my list of of a good Central Banker so I have learned you have to listen to them because they have influence but I have learned they don't know what they're doing so don't think that they know what they're doing and what they say is accurate it's not now the problem is you have to figure out what's accurate then you know since they're not right and we can't just take their word for we have to figure out what's going to happen my susp but it's only it's only a suspicion is that inflation you know markets will go like this they go up they correct they go up they correct that's been happening with inflation inflation has been correcting as all markets do I would suspect though that by this time next year inflation will have reared its ugly head even to the public and we will all be wondering what do we do now and that interest rates will be going higher again I hope Mr Powell can cut rates and I hope he's smart enough to do it if it's if that's appropriate but I don't have much confidence so much money has been printed in the last few years I mean just unbelievable amounts of money and not just in the US we led the way but the bank of Japan I mean it's unbelievable a guy goes to work every day like a good Japanese bureaucrat goes early cranks up the printing presses and prints money as fast as he can the amount of money being printed in Japan is unbelievable it's unbelievable in America Doo has been anyway but that's happening all over the world now so I am worried that inflation has not gone away for good the fiscal situation because yes not just the us but especially the us has spent unbelievable amounts of borrowed unbelievable amounts and spent unbelievable I mentioned Japan before I mean Japan's Got a huge economy and they're doing it too many people are doing it so we have both monetary always we've had a monetary situation and a fiscal situation and at the moment I mean it's a good time to be an old americ CU Young Americans are going to have huge huge problems someday with all this money that's being borrowed and spent I mean the numbers are mindboggling so it's a good thing we're older than 22 I suspect somewhere along the line somebody is going to run on a basis of we've got to do something about this debt and everybody the voters you and me are all going to say he's right let's elect him and then we will elect him but then 6 months later we're all going to say wait a minute wait a minute this hurts too much what are you talking about this is gigantic pain this is torture and they'll get rid of him and we'll print more money this what often has happened in history go back to use the Japanese model because it is a gigantic economy the second or third largest in the world they have staggering amounts of debt and they have a declining population that's not a typo declining population for several years debt going through the roof and every day they go deeper and deeper into debt and they print more and more money now these are success ful educated people like Americans like people in wa well I guess the people in Washington are successful and educated people but in Japan we have educated successful people and I say to myself how can they do this how can they go every day and print more money and run up higher and higher and higher debt with the population in Decline they do it they do it they're human beings too just like you all of us and it is happening before our eyes so strange things can happen with politicians and always have throughout history and don't think the people in Washington are any smarter they never have been I've been around Argentina a long time and I've heard it many times many times where the argentinians elect a new guy or somebody comes riding in on a white horse with very sound policies and actually doesn't and they have reverted or converted to the US dollar at times in their history I've heard not my first rodeo I've seen this movie in Argentina before and he says wonderful things let's see we can ask me in three years ask me in five years he's saying all the right things he's saying good things not all but he mainly what he's saying is very sound I'm always worried I invest in the markets if you invest in the markets and you're not always worried you don't know what's going on but let me just go back to some you said Pax Americana yes that's Washington puts out that propag but there was a study done recently the United States has been a country since 1776 in all but 18 years we have been at War it's a horrifying fact it's a fact it's a simple historic fact we are always at war with somebody so not I'm not proud of this at all it worries me even more but for some reason those people in Washington like War we're not very good at it anymore we haven't won a war in a long time but they like it and so PX Americana worries me and that's the way many people in Washington think they think we'll show them we'll give them peace we send an army to give them peace so I worry about a lot of things and that's one of them that somehow or another we we the American might stumble into a war because those people in Washington like it it worries me enormously I just got to tell you Washington's always been a war you know in before this first war war in 1914 the German royal family and the English royal family used to vacation together they would have parties together they would intermar Etc and then in 1914 only a few months later they were slaughtering each other hating each other the whole world and everybody of course in October of 1914 said don't worry this will be over about Christmas and of course you know six year months later everybody was say how the hell did we get into this how do we get out how do we get out of this crazy war and you know it took four years disaster gigantic disaster so when these accidents happened whatever reason and and by the way in that war just a little history more than you might care about probably the Emperor of Austria said to Serbia because his son had been killed assassinated in Serbia these are non demands you must do these things Serbia agreed to AER them Serbia agreed to AER the demands from The Archers Duke of what's he called the arch something the the Emperor of Austria Ser you agreed said okay we'll do it eight of his nine demands the old man he was 86 years old said too bad I'm going to slaughter you all and the next thing you know we were all in this gigantic war that could not end for four years so these things happen I see what's going on in the Red Sea you see what's going on and who knows what we could stumble into most wars happen by people has make mistakes and May accidents and then a few months later everybody says how do we get out the problem is how do we get out of Wars once they start it's bad enough that they start but then the problem is we can't get out look at Vietnam Vietnam was all based on fraud in Washington it went on for over a decade because we couldn't get out
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