저자: JustinCaron · 외국인
요약 보기
유가가 3.5% 상승하며 50주 이평선 위로 돌파, 에너지 가격 상승은 경기에 부정적이라고 주장. 독일 DAX와 미 장기금리 등 선행지표가 약세를 보여 유럽 겨울 및 심각한 경기침체 가능성 제기. 미국 신규주택판매 급감을 근거로 둔화 신호 강조. SPY는 일봉·주봉에서 지지선 이탈 및 갭다운 흐름으로 약세 신호, 월봉 역전 망치형 패턴을 근거로 하락 위험 언급. 다만 방향은 단정하지 않고 양측 근거가 팽팽하다고 결론.
다듬은 글
oil and how it is currently breaking out it is now up by 3.5 on the week and it is over its 50 weekly moving average this is really important because as energy prices go up it usually does not do well for the economy we can also note that uh zooming out here to cl1 which is going to be the uh lightspeed cube light suite crude futures but you know we are forming a massive pot and handle similar to a cup and handle and uh this is a breakout pattern so if this starts going higher it means that the cost for energy is going to keep going higher the reason why i find this so interesting today is because as we look over here to another chart which is the dax the dax has been giving a lot of leading indicators to us which means that it's been moving ahead of the s p and if we look here we note that we are now back below our 2018 and our 2020 tops we are below our 200ds sorry our 200 weekly moving average and we are also below our 50 daily moving average so what does this mean it means it looks like there's going to be a deep dark winter in europe possibly a deep recession as energy costs continue to go higher the reason why this is also particularly interesting is because when we look here to the 10-year note and we have a look over to the uh the two-year note we have a very similar pattern setting up here just like we do on the dollar what do we have massive cup massive handle back above the 50ma this is generally not going to be good we can also know that the 10 year note is now back above 3 and that is very notable it's notable because john taylor from the taylor rule was actually saying that the fed fund futures rate needs to be at 5 which is almost twice as high as we are right now if we look at two more charts we'll understand the story a lot better then we'll look at spy and we'll look at qqq to get a better understanding of how the broader market is doing so the two-year note definitely got ahead and completed its cup and handle already we note that it's now bounced and it's right near the highs so this exact same pattern is forming here uh weekly chart is a little bit more evident here here we go so if you look here there's our top there's the breakout there's our cup and handle where we again come down come up form our cup and handle and then bounce up to go back up to the highs uh we also have a golden cross like we're seeing on most of the other charts we just looked at one more chart to look at here is going to be the dollar so if we look here to the dollar what do we have we have a w it's not the same thing as a cup and handle but this generally means a win and the dollar is still green on the weak part of the reason why this is so important is because when we look to the y bull or white bear thesis that i have well we can notice that the things that we just reviewed um the dxy the t and x are the exact things we do not want to see if we are bullish on stocks we can also note that um deep recession risk well this could be a deep global recession risk which could what have contagion back to the west where the u.s might get dragged down because we're seeing softness in asia and we're also seeing softness in um in europe if you look forward to the one data point which actually moved the market today it's u.s new home sales and they plummet to the slowest pace since early 2016.
ironically the same level we're at in china we're seeing current home buying at roughly 2016 levels what does this mean it means we're seeing a slow down and as we as we shift here to looking to jerome powell coming in on friday the question is is this evidence that he's going to point to say that this is what we want we're getting what we want or is he going to say it's not enough um i honestly do not know but what i know is that the moves are getting more muted and what i mean by more muted is that when we now look here at spy on the one day chart we can note that um we have pretty much actually there's one more thing i want to point out here i kind of forgot about it so um if you look at the daily candle which is forming here on uh on sp y and we keep in mind what we just looked at on the dax it is now below the 200 weekly it is below the 50 daily it is also below um the 2018 and 2020 tops if we now look at the daily candle that we formed today what is it oh no it's an inverted hammer yep so we power slam down here to the 50 dma we gap down pump up sell off and now we look at spy what did we do ah we gap down pump up sell off but we closed lower than we open which means we have a solid red candle this is starting to feed through to more negativity the reason why this is important for me is um if you look back to our uh our low that we set in june we note that there's only been one other time when we had three red days in a row so again since we carved out our bottom here we have one two three right here there are other red days but they are hollow which means they'll be closed higher than we open other than that we've only been putting in two red days so two red days lower and now we got three this is looking like um again there could be more downside because the last time we had more than three goes all the way back to our big power slam and we left what a gap on the chart just like we did here there's a gap on the chart there's the second gap in the chart so what does this mean it means we're starting to see some evidence that the bears are flexing not just in the west but around the world so um again i don't know where we're going to go i know i've been saying that on the videos a little bit late lately and that's just because as we are now getting post op ex with just roughly 2 trillion let's go over the evidence here so we got a 2 trillion dollar expiry um we're now seeing uh right what's happening after the post opex cuck is what i like to call that so generally if we did not even have the fomc sorry if we didn't have the the jackson hold meeting coming on friday what normally happens keyboard being normally if the goal is for us to go higher into the next 30 days they want to have this move down so that they're able to accumulate the underlying meaning the stock before they allowed to go in the money because what options uh what options mean is that you are getting exposure to an asset so if you buy spy calls the market maker is forced to buy the underlying which means they're forced to buy spy you buy an spy contract they have to go buy 100 shares a spy why to make sure they don't blow up that's how it works they collect the premium and they make sure that um if they're going to go in the money that they're allowed to uh they're going to allow that to happen because now they are not going to be offside they collect the premium they let it go in the money and everything is gravy the other reason why this is particularly interesting is because if we look here again now that we know that we got the gap okay cool where are we also oh now we're also all the way back to our pink box so we're back to the area where we had consolidation and now we're falling right back down to that area so with the daily gap on the chart but also a daily gap on the weekly we have not seen that since when oh no since we've what formed the bottom that's the exact same thing i'm looking at here so removing all the trend lines but we noticed that on the weekly chart it is rare to have gaps so on spy there are gaps here our gap is here going back to our low which got established and also our low right now does this mean that we're going to reverse from here just like we did last time two big red weeks with the gap down and then we go up so the reason why i'm calling this out is because we can now note that we have a technical dip off the top or we're pretty close we got down to four one one point seven seven so from a relative high uh down to where we are now we are down by roughly four point six percent i'm going to call it five percent we get down to four ten that's going to be five percent over on qqq we're now down by i think it's roughly uh six percent off the highs yeah roughly six percent of the highs so advanced by 20 plus percent decline by five what is that 20 steps forward five steps back um what's a little bit concerning though is when we look here to qqq we know we have a big green line which should be support and uh if we look over here to what we're doing now uh yesterday we gapped down exactly to the level yesterday's open is three one eight point five i'm looking at three one eight five two so it's within two cents and we gap down in flush and then today we printed a lower low and a lower high which means that it doesn't look like we're going to be able to fill that gap until we get the catalyst on friday from jerome so with tech currently leading it looks like it wants to go down if you look here to spy versus qqq we also note that they're really they're really synced up here we note that spy's at four one two point three giga q is at three one four point one they're off by roughly two dollars they're getting really close to each other but s p's actually down more than qqq today one more interesting thing that i noted is i was looking here to try to understand what the market's doing again instead of trying to tell the market what it's doing we want to read it to understand what the story is and when i look here um we can note that if we look at the monthly chart we know we have an inverted hammer what does that mean it means we went up and now we came all the way back down what's really important for me is going to be last week's sorry last month's high or the july high and the reason why is because that's at 41303 we were hovering around there for a large part of the day but we did close below so all this means is that we are now equally as bullish as we were at the height in july or at the close of the month and if we can't hold it this inverted hammer usually leads to more downside not that it's a guarantee but it's very ominous last thing i want to look at here is spy on the 30-day chart and again i'm choosing the 30-day chart on purpose because we note that we've got a whole bunch of nowhere s p is down by 64 cents in the last 30 days however when we look here at the heat map we look at the last roughly 30 days or the last month there is clearly rotation happening so we can note that tech is up healthcare is down commercial services are down like credit cards we note that other blocks are mixed like consumer consumer services communications and consumer durables but now if we look at the last year to date what is gonna oh man like everything's red yep so everything's red except for energy a little bit of health care a little bit of contro consumer durable durable sorry uh utilities and healthcare services this looks very similar to what has been happening on the last one week where it's almost energy that's green and where we are where we are down last is healthcare and uh transportation and all this means is that again to smooth it out there is a rotation happening in the market so when we look at the blocks here for the last month or the last 30 days and again remembering that s p has pretty much gone nowhere um what i like about this in terms of the bolt case is that what i would expect to see is leadership from big tech amazon up seven tesla up seven amazon up seven microsoft and google forward two however on the shorter term or on the weekly we are noticing some divergence or again the theme from year to date is now playing out on the seven day rolling basis so right now we are dead locked between the bulls and the bears both having equal evidence in terms of us going into a new bull market or breaking above 430 and holding or this could be it where we now have our bear market rejection by getting a kiss of death on the 50th may leaving a gap and that could be the flush just like we had in 2000 and 2008 so with that said if you want to know more about what i just mentioned in detail here in a moment which is going to be my weekend review which talks about everything i saw over the weekend to get me prepared for the week and i want to thank you very much s so much
Comments 0