저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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달러 붕괴 가능성은 낮지만 전 세계적으로 지폐 가치가 하락하는 구조라고 본다. 현금 보유는 위험하다. 미국 6개월 예금금리는 0.5% 미만인 반면 정부 발표 인플레이션은 4% 이상이라 실질금리가 -3.5% 이상이다. 실제 체감 인플레이션은 4.5~10%로 본다. 제로금리와 마이너스금리로 중앙은행이 정직한 저축자의 돈을 빼앗고 있다고 비판한다. 학계는 연구비와 자리 때문에 중앙은행을 비판하지 못한다고 주장한다. 경제학이 리카도, 애덤 스미스, 슘페터, 밀턴 프리드먼 같은 고전을 외면하고 후퇴했다고 평가한다. 연준 출신 인사가 헤지펀드나 시타델 같은 곳으로 이동하는 회전문 문제도 지적한다. 재정 적자가 커지면 결국 돈을 찍고, 그다음 부유층 자산에 과세하는 단계로 이어진다고 본다. 다만 그동안 세금 인상은 중산층과 빈곤층에 떨어졌다고 말한다. 대안으로 부동산, 귀금속, 배당 3~4%대 주식, 신흥국 하이일드 채권을 제시한다. 유럽에서 배당주는 10년간 약 30% 상승할 수 있는 반면 현금은 가치가 떨어진다고 본다. 자산 몰수나 재교육 캠프 같은 사회주의적 정책에 대한 우려도 표명한다. 종목별 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 예측이나 목표가는 제시하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
it's difficult to envision a situation where the u.s dollar would collapse against other currencies you understand if it collapsed against say european currencies or the japanese yen and so then maybe there would be pressure on the us to actually tighten by the international holders of government bonds in the u.s that could be essentially the case but the other central banks do the same they also print money and so what we will have is a depreciation of paper money overall in the world not just in the us but overall people who hold cash when i grew up in my grandfather's household what was safe is to hold cash with a bank nowadays to hold cash is not safe because your deposit rates say six months deposit rates in the us are less than half a percent and the inflation as you as the government publishes is more than four percent so you have negative real interest rates of more than three and a half percent but this is what the government is publishing the reality is that inflation at the present time and i'm not saying it will continue forever at this rate it may accelerate it may come down but at the present time inflation in the u.s depending on your situation in life is being say between four and a half percent to 10 in my view they steal the expropriate honest people's savings by implementing zero and less than zero interest rates so what is it going to take for the masses to start seeing the central banks as the villain in this story well i think a lot of people see them all already in an unfavorable light but you have to understand in academia let's say you're a professor at the university the question is you want to keep your job or you want to get sucked you want to give keep your job shut up and just accept you're an employee of the federal reserve better shut up don't expose anything that could be wrong you're working for chase manhattan bank or jp morgan or whatever it is shut up the best nowadays in the current job situation that we have and in the current politically correct atmosphere just shut up because if you expose the villains and you tell the truth they're gonna shut you up that i mean a lot of academics have been sacked because they made some remarks that were inconvenient to their colleagues and in academia you know in business we have business rival race and so forth and people compete with each other but in academia there is much more jealousy among the people sitting at the university they all hate each other they hate each other today's economies how many economies have you heard recently quote david ricardo adam smith schumpeter or even a more recent economist like milton friedman who argued for freedom and capitalism and small governments and free to choose they never quote him they hate him because he argued for small governments and for the government to stay out of the way of the economy is a disaster the the level of economics in terms of sophistication unlike say mathematics and physics that have made huge strides forward over the last 30 years in economics we've gone back to practically the stone ages okay so we've got a regressive academic environment uh that is ruled by the tyranny of the majority here and i've got to think we also have on the the business side the corporate side and the political side we have the powerful players who are making tons of money from their unfair advantage right now feeding from the trough and they don't want the system to change correct no they don't want it's a perfect system for academia they can be incompetent at the fed then they leave the fed then they advise a hedge fund and that's it and they earn much more or they write a book by a ghostwriter yeah it's that uh it's that you know revolving door uh you know going to citadel all right i know several for former fed uh employees uh fed voting members uh larry lindsay he was sucked by greenspan in the late 1990s because he opposed to the easy monetary policies love to hear your thoughts on them and are there any other asset classes that you think provide a safer haven for capital than the traditional cash obviously but even even maybe equities and whatnot at these high prices well i wish it was as simple as you pointed out adam but the complication arises that's with that with the current policies the government will sooner or later run kind of out of money do you understand and then you have to take the money from somewhere and get the the financial conditions again in good orders certainly compared to other countries and so the taxation will go up you understand that is usually step one printing money step two the people that enjoy the money printing you start taking away something so you have a sort of a wealth tax or you impose duties the way the political system has been in the u.s all tax increases have fallen on the middle class and the lower middle class and the poor people it never falls up the hundred richest families the tax cuts always benefit the hundred richest families and the tax increases hurt the poor people so but in future that may change you understand we have huge political changes not just in the u.s but elsewhere and we have these leftists and so forth so i i wouldn't rule out that it will become quite bad say i have assets okay i have assets in real estate i have assets in precious metals and in some stocks because in europe if i can get companies with a dividend of three four percent and the cash has a negative yield then the companies with the three four percent yield over ten years will go up by thirty percent uh if everything stays more or less the same whereas cash will lose value anyway and i have also precious metals that i said real estate stocks and some bonds have high yield bonds in emerging economies but my concern is that one day the government will come and say well mr faber first of all maybe you have too many assets we need to take something away from you so we'll take fifty percent and number two mr faber i think it would be good to send you to a re-education camp you know so that you can be in peace and rethink the world according to our socialist ideologies you
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