저자: JimRogers · 외국인
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결론: 버블과 정부의 대규모 통화 발행으로 원자재가 유망하며, 채권은 버블이라 경계해야 한다. 통화 발행과 인플레이션 우려: 전 세계 정부가 역사상 유례없는 규모로 돈을 찍고 있어 결국 큰 문제로 이어질 것이라고 주장. 인플레이션이 오르면 원자재 가격이 오른다고 봄. 자산별 버블 진단: 채권은 역사상 가장 비싸 명백한 버블이라고 평가. 한국과 뉴질랜드 등 여러 나라 부동산도 버블로 진단. 주식은 일부 시장에서 버블이 형성되는 중이라고 봄(애플 등 예시). 원자재 투자: 은은 고점 대비 60% 하락, 설탕도 60% 하락해 원자재가 가장 싸다고 판단. 최근 1년간 농산물과 기타 원자재에 투자를 늘렸다고 언급. 금리와 베어마켓 전망: 금리가 역사상 가장 낮아 향후 오를 것이며, 과잉 레버리지 투자자들이 매도에 몰리면 다음 베어마켓이 평생 본 것 중 최악일 것이라고 전망. 2008년 이후 부채가 급증했다고 지적. 기회와 리스크: 팬데믹으로 여행·관광·엔터 업종이 붕괴해 기회가 생길 수 있고 중국 와인주를 매수했다고 언급. 현재는 매도나 공매도를 하지 않고 있으며, 버블이 본격화하면 공매도를 시작할 계획. 버블 타이밍 판단은 어렵다고 인정. 버블 교훈: 버블이 붕괴하면 회의론자와 버블을 믿는 사람 모두 손해를 본다는 교훈. 닷컴버블 때 대부분 버블주는 사라지고 아마존 같은 일부만 생존. 종목 선정은 재무제표, 사업, 경쟁 구도를 봐야 하며 본질은 투자의 기본과 같다고 강조.
다듬은 글
well you know it's a very strange world we live in uh some places are booming some places are going bankrupt and i'm afraid that's going to be the way it is for a while well look out the window you'll see what's different there's a huge worldwide virus going on which has caused many places to close down that presents opportunities but it also presents uh problems for many people the main problem that i see is right now we have all the governments in the world most of them printing huge amounts of money which has never happened before it's leading it's going to lead to big problems down the road throughout history when you print staggering amounts of money it's led eventually to problems and we have never in world history had so much money printing as we have now well uh all this money printing i i i have had more commodity investing let's put it that way because of the money printing throughout history when you print a lot of money it has led to inflation and inflation means higher prices which means commodities will go up and as i look around the world i mean you can see that bonds are definitely a bubble bonds have never been this expensive in world history property in many countries there's a bubble you go to korea and you new zealand many places it's it's a bubble uh stocks are beginning to form bubbles in many places i mean apple goes up every day you know 10 cent things like that the only place only things that are still down are commodities i mean silver is down 60 percent from its all-time high sugars down 60 percent those are not bubble numbers when you talk about things that are down 60 percent so commodities are the cheapest place and i've invested more in agriculture and other commodities in the last year or so eventually two things will happen one thing will just get so overpriced there won't be anybody left to buy and then they start selling and then there's nobody left to buy and the prices go down a lot uh but also interest rates will go higher eventually interest rates have never been this low in world history so when interest rates start going higher a lot of people are going to have to sell they're always some people are overextended and when they start having to sell it usually crescendos and then you have a big bear market i'm sure the next bear market we have will be the worst in my lifetime we had a big bear market in 2008 because of too much debt well since 2008 i mean the debt has skyrocketed everywhere we've never seen so much debt so the next bear market has to be the worst in my lifetime because of all this debt well as i said when there's inflation prices go up and if you own the things that go up in price you know whether it's sugar or silver or whatever you usually will make money or you certainly will protect yourself so the best opportunities i see are in real assets also though whenever you have a big disaster it usually leads to opportunities for instance right now travel and tourism and entertainment are all demolished in many countries and there are probably opportunities there developing for i mean i bought chinese wine stocks recently because people stopped going out they stopped going to restaurants stop going to bars so maybe there's an opportunity there often when there is a disaster it does lead to an opportunity well i said bonds are the biggest bubble they've ever been that's not an opportunity commodities are very cheap silver is down 60 percent didn't you hear what i said this is an opportunity bonds are not an opportunity maybe i'm not making myself clear some markets are certainly great opportunities some are not well i am not selling uh anything yet and i'm not selling short anything yet i see bubbles starting to develop but at the moment it doesn't look like we're in enough enough of a bubble maybe bonds but nothing else for me to sell short yeah many stocks in the u.s which is the biggest market are not up a lot somewhere in a clear bubble but many stocks this year now or last year were down uh in 2021 so it's not a full-fledged bubble yet but it looks like it's going to develop into a full-fledged bubble at which point i'll have to sell and i'll start selling short i hope i hope i'm smart enough i think what you need to do is to watch the desire to trade to figure out when it's time to sell the bottle i i don't know uh bubbles what was usually ruined two kinds of people they ruined the skeptics first to people who say this is a bubble and it's crazy then they get ruined and then the people who believe in the bubble get ruined because then the bubble eventually collapses and they lose everything because they thought it was real so i don't know i'm not very good at market timing i've been around bubbles before i have soul bubbles i have shorted bubbles but bubbles can be very very confusing but when bubbles come everything collapses nearly everything not everything you know uh most things disappear in the 19 let's use 1999 that was a recent bubble in the u.s it was the dot-com bubble most or many of the dot-com stocks which were not real companies some of them totally collapsed and disappeared some survived and did well i mean amazon is now a great great great success uh but if you'd shorted at amazon in that bubble you would have made a lot of money for a while but it is the company which went on to become a great success uh usually there's always somebody that survives but most bubble stocks disappear i told i told you watch they desire to trade always somebody who will survive you look at their balance sheets you look at their business you look at the competition you look at the people or the people smart people no it's it's the same thing that you would look at when you're trying to decide on any investment it's exactly the same thing it's more difficult in a bubble because usually there's a lot more competition uh it you know in a bubble new come many new companies start up and you have to decide which ones are really sound but it's the same thing investing is pretty much the same always i didn't say it was easy i just said it's pretty much the same you
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