저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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결론: 주식시장 하락은 피할 수 없으니 예측에 시간 낭비하지 말고, 좋은 회사를 골라 오래 보유하라. [시장 하락의 불가피성] 93년간 시장에 10% 이상 하락이 50번(약 2년에 한 번), 25% 이상 하락(약머 베어마켓)이 15번(약 6년에 한 번) 있었다고 설명. 하락 자체를 두려워할 필요는 없으며, 하락 시기 예측은 불가능하다는 입장. [경제·시장 예측에 대한 견해] 주식시장 예측은 완전한 시간 낭비. 경제 공부에 1년 14분 이상 쓰면 시간 낭비라는 농담 섞인 주장. [투자 원칙] 하락 시 좋은 회사가 싸게 거래되는 기회로 활용. 예: 14달러 종목이 6달러로 떨어지면 기회. 재무제표(대차대조표)를 확인하고, 이해할 수 있는 회사에 투자할 것. 단기 시세를 자주 확인하는 것은 무의미. 분기 보고서를 보고 기업을 평가할 것. [장기 보유 사례] 던킨도넛 등 일상에서 이해 가능한 기업으로 10~15배 수익 경험 언급. 월마트·마이크로소프트처럼 상장 후 몇 년 뒤 매수해도 큰 수익 가능하다고 설명. [가치 투자 사례 — 케이저 인더스트리] 부채가 없고 자회사 지분이 많은 회사가 주가 하락으로 가치 대비 극도로 저평가된 사례 소개. 결국 주주에게 자산을 분배하면서 높은 수익 실현. [매도 실수 경고] 이유를 모르고 샀기 때문에 하락 시 불안해 파는 것이 투자자들의 가장 흔한 실수라고 지적. [대상 자산 언급] 특정 국내외 종목에 대한 구체적 예측이나 목표가 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
what you learn from history is the market goes down it goes down a lot the math is simple there's been 93 years a century this is easy to do the markets had 50 declines of 10 or more so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market falls 10 percent we call that a correction that means that's a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly we call it a correction and uh uh so 50 declines in 93 years about once every two years the market falls 10 all those 50 declines 15 have been 25 or more that's known as a bear market we've had 15 declines in 93 years so every six years the market's gonna have a 25 decline that's all you need to know you need to know the market's gonna go down sometime if you're not ready for that you shouldn't own stocks and it's good when it happens if you like a stock at 14 it goes to six that's great you understand the company you look at the balance sheet they're doing fine you're hoping to get to 22 with it 14 to 22 is terrific 6 to 22 is exceptional so you take advantage of these declines they're going to happen no one knows when they're going to happen people get too carried away and first of all they try to predict the stock market that is a total waste of time no one can predict the stock market but i'm trying to tell you it'd be very useful to know what the stock market is going to do it'd be terrific to know that the dow jones average year for now would be x then we're going to have a full scale recession our interest rate rate's going to be 12 that's useful stuff you never know it though you just don't get to learn it so i've always said if you spend 14 minutes a year in economics you've wasted 12 minutes and i i really believe that and the key organ in your body in the stock market is your stomach it's not the brain if you can add eight and eight get reasonably close to 16 that's the only level of math you need to know all you have to know is you're going to see it's always going to be scary there's going to be always something to worry about and you just have to forget all about it cut it all out and own good companies our own turnarounds study them and you'll do well and that's all there is and i'm ready for questions i made money in dunkin donuts i could understand it i uh when there was recessions i didn't have to worry about what was happening i could go there and people were still there i didn't have to worry about low price korean imports i mean i just didn't know you know i can understand it and you laugh i made 10 or 15 times my money in dunkin donuts those are the kind of stocks i can understand you shouldn't be calling your broker four times a day to get stock quotes it doesn't work getting up in the morning to look to see how you're stocked yesterday is not useful you should be looking at the company when you get the quarterly reports you should if you're at the mall imagine if you were in the re if you're in the retailing industry or if you're in restaurant industry you would have seen taco bell you would have seen mcdonald's you would have seen toys r us i mean you've seen all these companies do terrifically well you've seen bombay you've seen tandy with radio shack and you've seen radio shack roll across the country pretty soon there were you know 25 radio shacks in every major city and you said there's not much room for them to go but they had a 20-year great run that's what you're dealing with you're not dealing with the minutia of today you're dealing what's this country doing two years three years four years five years from now so don't get you know you have to understand it and say they're doing well and as long as they keep doing well my best stocks have been my fifth sixth seventh year i own them not my fifth sixth seventh day so you have to understand that and uh stay with it you only need to buy a few stocks every decade when your lifetime's over you don't need a lot of five baggers to make a lot of money starting with ten thousand dollars or five thousand dollars you could about walmart ten years after they went public and made 35 times your money if you bought it when they went public you would have made 500 times your money but you can wait 10 years after walmart went public and made 30 over 30 times your money you could wait three years after microsoft went public and made 10 times your money because a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much how you know how much further gonna go down i did the same thing in my uh i think my first or second year fidelity kaiser industries had gone from 26 a share to 16.
i said how much lower can it go it's 16. so i think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever on the new york on the american stock exchange of kaiser industries at 14. i said you know it's gone from 26 to 16. how much lower going to go well at 10 i called my mother and said mom you're going to uh look at this kaiser industries i mean how much lower can it go it's gone from 26 to 10.
well it went to six it went to five it went to four and went to three and at three i figured out you know there's something very wrong here because kaiser industries owns forty percent of kaiser steel they own forty percent of kai's aluminum they own thirty two percent of kaiser cement they own kaiser broadcast they know kaiser santa gravel kaiser engineers they own jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now i learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for so many people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any debt it's tricky some people can approach that it's a real achievement but they had no debt and the whole company at three was selling at about 75 million and that point it was equal to buying one boeing 747.
i said there's something wrong with this company selling for 75 million i was a little premature at 16 but uh i said everything's fine and eventually this work out and they what they did is they gave away all their shares to their shareholders they passed out shares and guys meant they passed our chairs and kai's aluminum they passed out their public shares and cars of steel they sold all the other businesses and you get about fifty dollars a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock had gone from 26 to 16 and then it got into 10 what would you do when it went to nine what would you do when went to eight what would you do when went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then it went down and they don't know what to do now do you flip a coin do you walk around the block you know what do you do you
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