Legendary investor Jeremy Grantham: A magnificent bubble, crazier than 1929 and 2000. Quantum Wealth

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01. i spoke with investor and gmo co-founder jeremy grantham who told me he thinks we're in a magnificent equity bubble in the u.s i asked him about some of the things he is holding though including us-based venture capital names that it has to be so much in the us but the us to be honest is extraordinarily powerful in venture capital it raises a lot more money it has a lot more enterprises the quality of the whole industry is much higher the society is more attuned to uh to to investing in risky enterprises and forgiving people who failed uh no the whole culture the the existence of the great research universities which is critical to venture capital the u.s has a death grip uh on on the great research university and the handful of others tend to be in the uk but um so the the it's very hard to avoid the us in venture capital and i think as you know venture capital is far and away the most healthy part of modern capitalism it really does something useful it's in full cry companies starting everywhere and in the green area really important promising new technologies springing out of the woodwork at all the great universities and if you look at the fangs they were all the product of the us vc industry they're all pretty recent companies when you get down to it these these are not offshoots of the procter and gambles and the excellence even microsoft and apple uh started when my firm at gmo was starting so these these are not old enterprises and the rest are teenagers in terms of you mentioned green investment there as well i wonder what your views were jeremy when it came to the public markets on that topic and esg in particular whether that is genuinely an asset class whether it deserves genuine uh higher multiples or or whether people are just sort of playing paying lip service to it in a sort of slightly false way well wilf i've got to admit that esg is kind of complicated and basically over my pay grade as i like to say at a conference you know s g what's not to like good behavior who doesn't love good behavior but e is about our survival if we don't fix the e our society as we know it will start to crumble and um my god have we seen some really lousy weather since we last spoke the floods and fires all around the world the fires in in the north of russia were bigger than all the rest of them added together in the world which included the biggest california fires ever recorded so the weather is going to hell everybody is beginning to recognize the dangers of climate change the governments quite suddenly in the last 18 months are getting behind it i would say in the public tradable markets that greening the economy decarbonizing the whole industrial system that's the biggest challenge uh we have ever faced really it will take many trillions of dollars and it will dominate the investment opportunities of the future in the tradable market and in the venture capital market in the venture capital market when did you have an industry with such a following win that every government is thinking about it most governments are working on bringing in carbon taxes which will which will make half of the vc investments we see suddenly much more viable we absolutely need a carbon tax and around the world they're coming in fairly thick and fast and china introduced one in the last six months what what do you uh say when you see the likes of exxon or bp embrace esg does that make you tempted to then buy the stocks or not no it makes me very nervous about green washing of course these are the guys who've tried to persuade us that climate change was no problem and they knew very well since the 1970s it was they probably cost us 10 15 20 years of absolutely precious time because we are going to through technology we're going to get out of these problems one day we will have plenty of cheap green energy we'll have plenty of cheap green storage one way or the other we will decarbonize the steel industry and the plastics will be replaced by bio plastics that will grow the problem is time we're just taking too long and the damage building up in the environment is is getting to be already very painful and before we finish this the 415 parts per million of carbon dioxide that we have up from 280 uh in the last 200 years it's going to go to 550 we are going to go sailing through 2 degrees centigrade and we've seen the damage that happens at 1.1 and and it's geometric it doesn't increase you don't get twice the damage at two degrees then you get it one degree you probably get four or five times the damage and at three degrees centigrade perish to thought which we may get to you'll have another five or ten times the damage it uh it really is a serious threat we really have to address it and we are beginning to address it on a global basis and and and the critical problem that we can't replace is time and these exon guys they cost us 10 or 15 years and lord knows i hope one day they pay for you