저자: TomLee · 외국인
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중동 긴장에도 시장이 충격을 잘 흡수하고 있어 바닥 형성 조짐이라는 주장. 포지션 리셋이 끝나면 기회가 온다고 봄. 바닥 확인 신호로 VIX 40 이상 스파이크, 금 하락 중 주가 반등 등을 제시. 소프트웨어·매그7·암호화폐가 하락을 90% 소화했고 AI 수요는 유효하다고 평가. 연내 강세장 가능성과 Nvidia 저평가 언급. 유가는 주시 대상이며 투자자는 인내와 신중함을 유지하라고 조언.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee. Now, he's here with us at at Post9. It's good to have you back. Great. Your thoughts as you as you look at these markets. Been real interesting price action over the last couple of days. Thought our reporters set the table very well on the issues at hand that investors need to keep their eyes on.
What about yours? Um, yeah, I think the headlines have been scary. No one wants to see the US in a conflict, but I think it's been spot on to note that markets have been taking this much better than expected. I don't think anyone can say uh we're bottomed yet, but this is what looks like the makings of a bottom, right?
That you get bad news and the markets are taking it in stride. And more importantly, I think we've had a position reset. And so on the other side of this, I think is going to be a lot of opportunity. What would give you the confidence to say, you know what, that's a sign of a bottom. What What do you need to see?
Uh well, some things like if we go back to April, a simple thing would be the VIX making a spike to over 40. um you know last year was 80 but we won't get to 80 and then of course retracing that would be a clean sign because that's so much de-risking. Uh another sign would be we get another scary headline and gold continues to sell off and then stocks actually turn green on the day because that means we've washed things out.
I I think we're pretty close. You're watching oil as closely as everybody else is. I thought it was interesting some of the notes today. UBS says we expect only minimal or a brief disruption to global energy supplies. We therefore stick with our base case that US equities, equities, excuse me, will produce good gains this year.
Katie Huberty over at Morgan Stanley. Recent geopolitical events unlikely to change our bullish view on equities over the next 6 to 12 months. Uh yeah, I mean I think oil I think we got we saw things that kind of made sense to me. oil spiking on the on closures or potential closures of the straight of horm but the the response from Washington and I think that's maybe more important that I don't think Washington wants high oil prices into the midterms and of course it's very unpopular with Americans.
I mean it's a big burden. So I I I'm going to be in the camp that I'm watching the price action. I think it's encouraging that oil's not surging into the close. And part of the huberty note focuses on the AI trade which has been really interesting I thought over the last couple days back some might say to the safe haven type price action.
I mean look at right now Microsoft's up, Meta's up, Amazon's up, Nvidia's traded better over the last couple of days. What do you make of that? Uh well in our view March was the makings of a bottom because the software the mag 7 and the cryptos we thought were like 90% through to their you know their winters or declines.
Uh they are outperforming and I think that's a sign of leadership but fundamentally you're absolutely right if we get higher uh if we get global trade disruption you still need AI and you still need the mag 7. So I I think they're actually good fundamental stories. There's a technical side to this story, too.
Stay with me just a second because certainly one of the key questions facing investors, what to do in the markets given the unrest in the Middle East and the uncertain road ahead. Our next guest, in fact, is watching the charts for some clues. BTI's Jonathan Krinsky joins us now. Uh, it's good to see you.
A note from from yesterday said, quote, "When missiles fly, time to buy." Expand on that thought if you could. Yeah, good to see you, Scott. So, I mean, I think, you know, if you look throughout history, geopolitical conflicts are rarely a longlasting uh negative catalyst for markets. They tend to be um short-term isolated events.
And, you know, once we get some clarity on the event, um the the de-risking kind of tends to reverse. And there's some thing you asked Tom, you know, what what do you need to see to see a tradable bottom? So, there's things we watch similarly to to kind of give us uh clues to that. Um, you know, one thing he mentioned the VIX, we look at the VIX curve.
So, looking at spot VIX versus the second month future, that was inverted by about four points. Um, that's the most since last April of the lows. So, there's certainly room for it to invert more, but that's a sign that you're probably in, you know, in the later innings of the selloff when you finally see that inversion.
Um, as far as oil goes, we look at the energy stocks relative to oil. So this morning crude oil was up about 8% but the energy stocks if we look at the XLE was unable to take out yesterday's high and in fact it traded red uh well before the the recent headlines on that caused oil to to give up its gain.
So those were two signals we were watching. Um and then I think finally if you look uh you know kind of at the internals of the market what's what's working what's not um we kind of have a first in first out with areas like software which has been you know went that was one of the first groups that went green this morning.
Um so it seems to us like that is fully washed out and then finally they're finally selling the the leaders right the the memory stocks I think were kind of the final hold out in this in this bull market. We saw Korea, uh, which is an area we were cautious on last night, um, down about 7%. So, a lot of the memory names trade in sync with Korea.
Um, so we're finally seeing those those last holdouts kind of get get sold, and I think that's another sign that we're probably towards the later innings here. All right, we'll make that the last word. I appreciate you joining us with a really good look uh, and and a simple to understand one on all things that are happening from a technical standpoint perhaps within the market.
Let's bring in now the Wharton School professor of finance wisdom tree chief economist Jeremy Seagull. Fundst strats Tom Lee of course is still with us. Professor, it's good to see you. Love your thoughts here on what you make of these market moves over the last couple of days based on your experience.
Yeah. Well, you know, when I sent my notes over at at noon, Scott, uh I said we have to keep the straits of Hormuz open. I said that was critical. And the news we got over the last hour is is uh is really good about that. Uh I I certainly expected the US to provide insurance, but we need the escorts.
Um and I think uh success on escorting tankers through would be a big political victory uh for Trump. uh you know some of the early developments that we had hoped for uh you know the rising up of uh the Iranians uh uh the replacement of the supreme leader by someone that would negotiate with Trump that has not happened so far.
So uh I think the next step is if we can open keep that straits open uh Iran has said you know we're going to prevent tankers from going through that would be a political victory and I think that would be very very positive for the market but uh that that's going to be uh something that uh I think we all want to want to see over the next uh week or so.
Professor, you've seen a lot of markets during times of turmoil, certainly war and and other events that have shaken investor confidence at times. Are in fact those moments what the charts have suggested to Jonathan Kinsky, missiles fly time to buy? Yeah, generally, you know, that the the uh the fright of war and the angst of war has been a time to to buy.
You know, when World War I started, people that the the exchange was so nervous that there was going to be a total collapse, they closed the New York Stock Exchange for six months, which is the longest period of time in US history it's ever been closed. But the war actually happened to be good for the US economy.
So, uh that when they reopened it, stocks were rising and then they just absolutely so soared up to to new highs. So, uh, that sort of told people, you know what, uh, you know, wartime is not always a bad time for the markets. And, uh, certainly we're not in a World War I, World War II. Certainly, let's hope it doesn't get that way.
Um but it h those periods you know when VIX is above 20 uh you know I know Tom wants it to go above 40 that would be the spike that that would probably mark the bottom but it means there's an awful lot of hedging that is going on a lot of risk uh uh positioning uh if if we get through this war uh with some of our objectives through I think we're we're ready for a big bull market in 2026.
you want to opine on that? Yeah. Um I mean I agree with almost everything said by both Krinsky and Jeremy Seagull that this is all the hallmarks of creating some good opportunities. So I think investors do need to look beyond the headlines maybe think 3 months maybe even a month forward and we just have to kind of wash through this bottom but we already know where the leadership could be coming from.
It's the software the mag sevens and even the cryptos. Professor, does this like Tom's suggesting perhaps rekindle the the megga cap trade in some respects for the idea that at times of turmoil within the markets, these have tended to be a bit defensive? Yeah. Well, I remember once we thought that Apple was the big defensive stocks.
Um, you know, when there's times of potential recession or international disturbances, really no stock is totally immune. uh and uh you know uh we really need to get through this I think for the bull market uh in both segments of of both the value stocks uh and the rotational stocks as well as the mag 7.
But uh you know let me tell you when you take a look at some of those Max 7 stock like Nvidia that selling in the low 20s some even say lower in terms of price earnings ratio uh that is an awful lot of discounting let me tell you for a company that has been growing 30 40% a year. Yeah you you would agree though in the in the bigger picture as as we wind our our conversation down that uh energy that complex and oil prices are the most important thing to watch right now.
not only for a from a sentiment standpoint obviously for the economic fallout perspective and then how it relates to the Fed as well and what ahead is going to be. Yeah. And and as you know as Tom mentioned I mean you know we are coming to the midterms and uh you know we have had low oil and gas prices under Trump.
Now the the wholesale price of gas let me tell you has gone up 50 cents over the last three days. Now, it takes about a week to work into the pump. Um, I worked it out that if it does go up by, you know, 50 cents, we will, you know, we will be in the middle of what the gas was during the Biden administration, but no more Trump discount that he was counting on early on.
So, it's it's not only, you know, a question about the Fed does and the economy. Um, it really is going to be important for uh uh the political outlook. Tom, you get the last word. Yeah. Well, I'd say uh I think investors just need to be kind of patient, cautious, and wary, have a bit of firepower, but I I think opportunities are emerging.
All right, gentlemen. I appreciate very much uh the conversation as always. Professor, we'll talk to you soon. Tom, thanks for coming to Post 9.
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