저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
2~4월 전쟁 확대·하락장이 오히려 매수 기회였고 전쟁은 경제에 일부 도움이 되어 V자 반등이 나왔다고 봄. 방산주는 상승 전제에서 지적되며 피크 디펜스 우려는 부당하다는 주장. 패트리엇 생산 확대는 공급망이 커서 시간이 걸리고 공급업체에 수혜. 메모리 부족 이슈와 대형주에서 소형주로의 로테이션을 언급하나 구체적 종목 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
finding peaceful trade, but today, perhaps, there is some stability here. Um, well, good morning. Yes, I think investors, um, naturally will be concerned because, um, the US has a conflict with an enemy that, of course, is trying to absorb more countries and threaten other countries. Um, but we also know that during that period from February to April, when the war was escalating and the markets were falling, it ended up being a good opportunity to buy stocks.
And I think, you know, for me, that would have been maybe a more important message to the audience, that maybe you don't actually want the United States to be at war. And that can actually make you very nervous about what you're holding in your hands. But this turned out to be a time when the US economy was actually not only doing well, um, the war was probably somewhat beneficial to the economy, and it ultimately created a V- shaped rebound.
Yeah, I mean, that's such a good point, Tony, especially when you look at, I mean, you even see it in the macroeconomic data. It's not just the development of artificial intelligence infrastructure that is currently booing the US economy. This is huge defense spending that is now also being channeled into this reindustrialization push.
And yet the stocks of defense contractors, at least the so-called " legacy primes," have all fallen. Stocks have fallen since the start of this war. This is illogical. And I think this is, well, you know, peak, peak defense trade. And people say, “Hey, you know, the midterm elections are coming up. "It will be , well, you know, it will be , it will be, if, if, if the House of Representatives is divided and there is no majority, it will be difficult to pass defense spending." But the reality is that defense spending is generally bipartisan.
Probably, in any case, there will be a certain balance of forces on the border of the front. But all else being equal, you know, we're still well below historical, well, well, well, well, defense spending based on GDP, based on the federal budget. And I don't think, I don't think, uh, I don't think Europe thinks they're going on peak defense.
I do n't think the Asian allies think there is peak defense. I don't think the Middle East thinks there is a peak defense. So, I think the reality is that it's probably not true. Yes. I mean, the other news that came out yesterday at the NATO summit, also very important here, Tony, was that the US is giving Ukraine the green light to produce Patriot missiles.
And also, it seems that the president of, uh, the United States, uh , approves of these strikes on Russia, and also, it seems that Ukraine is winning the war here. Uh, what does this mean in terms of the international picture for companies like RTX, Lockheed Martin, as well as some new players? We've had a lot of drone companies go public even in the last few months.
Right. As for Patriot, you know, there was a precedent where we allowed Japan to produce Patriot missiles, and we allowed other countries to produce other weapons systems that we have . This is a complex weapons system. The supply chain is huge. It will take time to, um, because if we, Ukraine, started building them today, it would take a lot of time to, um, gather all the suppliers.
You know, you can't get out of mass production on a 3D printer. There are so many components in the secret radar heads , and you need the entire support system for all the main radars and all the other components that go into the communication system. So, it will take time, and it will benefit the suppliers.
I mean, um, you know, Rathon manufactures a lot of parts, obviously, for its own missiles. So does Lockheed, and Europe will probably pay, you know, essentially give Ukraine a loan to pay for these weapons systems. Yes, we're talking about a memory shortage, ahem, in the technology industry , but it's something else that also affects systems like Patriot.
Tom brings me back to what we saw, um, within our conversation about market rotation in a broader sense, and that's certainly happening. I want to hear your thoughts on small- cap companies, for example, that have outperformed their peers, and you, um, said that so early. Hmm, but even with the rotation that we see under the hood in the tech industry , are there buying opportunities there ?
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