저자: TomLee · 외국인
요약 보기
톰 리는 연준 회의 후 시장 과잉반응론을 펴며, 워시 신임 의장의 회의는 실질적으로 비둘기파적이라고 평가한다. 워시 의장은 소통 방식이 다르고 실시간 대체데이터로 인플레이션을 점검하겠다는 입장이므로, 점도표 변화가 빠를 수 있다고 본다. 시장이 포워드 가이던스 제거와 점도표를 매파 전환으로 받아들인 것은 오해라는 주장이다. 현재 S&P500은 7,500 부근이며, 톰 리는 올해 후반 약세장 같은 급격한 시장 국면 전환이 올 것이라고 보지만 지금 고점을 외치지는 않는다고 말한다. 현재 여건은 주식에 여전히 우호적이라는 판단이다. 급변의 근거로 세 가지를 든다. 첫째, 연준의 프레임워크 재검토(2026년)로 시장이 시험받을 가능성. 둘째, 스페이스X IPO 물량(유통주식 약 900억 달러)이 올해 후반 단계적으로 풀리고, 앤트로픽·오픈AI IPO도 이어질 가능성. 셋째, 호르무즈 해협 교란으로 공급망 부족이 올 수 있다는 점이다. 네 번째 촉매로는 신용융자(마진 부채) 수준 등으로 투기적 자금 여력이 소진되는 상황을 들었으나, 아직 투자자 강세심리가 충분하지 않아 이 조건은 충족되지 않았다고 본다. 출연자 전망: 올해 후반 시장 분위기 전환은 불가피하나 지금 당장은 이르다는 입장.
다듬은 글
He joins us now. It's good to have you on our program today. Tell our producers investors overreacted to the Fed meeting. It seems to be the consensus, the growing consensus that that was what happened yesterday. Why do you think that? Um hi Scott. Um Kevin Warsh has a very different communication style and he he plans to kind of modernize how the Fed monitors data.
So, I think the markets took the removal of that forward guidance and even looking at those dot plots as a hawkish pivot. But, I think instead I think it's a Kevin Warsh that's saying, "Listen, I'm going to be using modern data, real-time alternative data to understand what's going on with inflation.
And at this moment we have no conviction." So, to me I think it's actually a very markets friendly view. Um I think the the homework now is for investors to understand that if data changes, those dots are going to move pretty quickly. So, I I think overall is actually quite a dovish meeting. So, 7,500 is where we sit right now on the S&P.
Been looking for a few different scenarios to play out in the market between now and the remainder of the year. If you think that yesterday was dovish and a lot of other people thought it was hawkish, and you came into yesterday thinking that we were going to have some moment where the market was going to have a correction of some magnitude.
Have you changed that view? Um Scott, we still believe uh later this year there is going to be an abrupt change of market conditions, one that feels very much like a bear market. Um but, we don't want to stand and uh call a top. I think conditions are still favorable for stocks. You know, the SpaceX IPO was very successful.
And as you know, there's been a cadence of pretty good news coming out of that company. And it is a very small float company with only 90 billion of float. Um and I think Kevin Warsh uh, his view this was actually kind of a a market reaction to his first press conference, but I think that the the real challenge is going to come later this year.
So, I I think yes, very much there is going to be a change in market tone, but I think it's too early for people to expect that to happen now. But, when you say there's going to be a quote abrupt change of market conditions, you can't make a statement like that without telling me why you you think that.
What what's going to happen? Uh, well, I think that there are sorry, let's say I we can see with pretty good visibility three things happening. You know, one is that we know markets eventually test especially if a Fed that's redoing the five, you know, framework with five task forces. I think that's in 2026.
The second is that the IPO of SpaceX today there's very little float, but that's going to unlock later this year in phases along with the IPO of Anthropic and OpenAI. And the third is that because of just the the disruptions we experienced so far in the Straits of Hormuz, there is in the supply chain coming shortages.
That those are actually the preconditions. I think the fourth catalyst is that speculative firepower runs out. Um, that will happen when some things like margin debt, you know, experience levels that are associated with short-term corrections or it could be that you could see a lot of cash move out of the sidelines, but I don't have any sense that investors are that bullish yet.
So, to me I don't think that fourth piece is in place yet. All right, good stuff, Tom. Talk to you soon. Thank you. Fun strat's Tom Lee.
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