저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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모틸랄오스왈 Q1 실적 호조를 설명하며 주가 추가 상승 여지를 낙관하는 인터뷰. 실적 구성: 사모펀드(PE) 캐리 수익 약 53억 루피(약 53 crore)가 이익 견인, 주택금융(Aspire) 이익 약 14~15 crore로 4배 가까이 성장, 자산운용사(AMC)는 전년 손실(3~4 crore)에서 약 91 crore 흑자 전환, 증권 브로킹은 점유율 확대와 6~7월 양호한 실적. 브로킹 사업은 경기 순환적이지만 강세장에서는 크게 성장할 수 있으며 현재 이익 비중은 약 35%. 주택금융은 저가 주택(10~11 lakh 루피) 중심으로 성장 여력이 크다고 설명. 캐리 수익은 펀드 청산 시점에만 발생하는 일회성 성격이며 향후 2~3분기에 추가 캐리가 기대되나 이후 고갈될 것이라고 언급. 20 crore 상각 존재. 주가는 501 신고가. 본인은 '아직 최고는 오지 않았다(best is yet to come)'고 평가하며 시가총액 6~7천 crore 규모에서 멀티배거 가능성을 언급했으나 확정 전망은 아님. 거시 전망: 인도 주식시장에 100% 강세 견해 유지, 몬순 정상화, GST 도입으로 세수 증가와 인프라 투자 재원 확대 기대. 인도 경제 규모 2조→4조 달러 성장 전망 제시. 다만 PSU은행·FMCG 실적 부진과 인포시스 쇼크 등 실적 질 우려도 인정.
다듬은 글
let's chat with the moal oswal management Ram Agarwal joins us now to talk about the earnings and RAM good afternoon and congratulations what a stupendous performance it has been uh tell us a little bit more about at the group level Which business would you say has contributed maximum to the growth this time yeah so uh you know as far as the contribution in this quarter's result is concerned it is the uh private Equity business uh who who first fund has come for closure and we have been you know selling the stocks from that particular fund you might have seen the public issue of parak parak milk uh food that was basically our our stocks which went into the market then uh we were selling uh minda Industries so you know there lot of then there was some private exits also so uh about 50 55 crores of this particular uh quarter came from the carry you know the carry profits which the man they get uh that's what uh was contributed by that but apart from that uh the Housing Finance Company uh Aspire that has grown by 4X almost uh 390 or something like that and so that has contributed uh good amount of money uh which was not there last year it's about 14 15 cror in the current quarter then third growth driver was the AMC last year actually AMC was making losses about 3 4 crores this year the same entity has given a profit of about uh uh 91 crores isn't it so uh so that's that's been a third growth dver and I think the biggest surprise and present surprise is the the established business that is a broking there we have started gaining market share yield is very stable it's it has a lot of expenditure I mean immediately after the installation of new government we had recruited a lot of people and we had taken a lot of cost last year and actually the operation suffered last year but this year we are starting off well well uh uh June was very good month even July is shiing up very well so I think uh that business is showing a lot of stability and good Trend so all in all actually all the four segments uh has done very well and uh uh we think that uh we're into good time at this juncture Dan Ram I have to note that the stock markets as well are rewarding your performance with your stock at an all-time high right now I'll come to that in just a second but Ram out of the four segments that you just mentioned uh what do you think is going to be the biggest contributor in the year to come see biggest number of employees and uh the core of the company is the broking business but it's a highly uh it's a cyclical and unpredictable business in the sense that how big can you be between 2003 and 2007 we grew 100 times in that business we had only one line of business institutional equities and broking so uh right now we are doing how much we did in the peak of the last time I mean uh this quarter is almost close to what we did in 20078 Peak but this is the starting of the hopefully the next round of uh uh good times in the market so how big can it become can it be five times can it be 10 times or can it remain same in uh bull run because if by chance it becomes a very different kind of rally uh some kind of a sectoral rally or something like that and it bypasses the market that could be a very different thing but I uh going by our experience of 25 30 years there is no bullrun bypasses a broker so I think uh this time also that can be a very large thing right now it is about one3 of the uh earnings it used to about 75% 2 years back today it is 35% so that can surprise us positively uh then you have the Housing Finance which is very predictable business because there you can do as as much business as much you put in terms of capital so here uh we are committed to providing all the capital possible uh the pace at which we have designed the uh what you call business model uh right now the traction is very good we are in affordable segment 10 11 lakhs of rupees per house and uh so we have done about uh 25,0 27,000 houses uh which gives us a book of about 25 2600 so that looks to be a very promising segment uh of growth but it's relatively new it's just about 2 years old and we are still uh building our what you call base out there uh third business which is AMC where again we have very focused strategy we don't have uh we don't have debt in our books I mean we don't offer debt products we offer only Equity Pockets even in equities we offer very very specific type of equity products and just about two three strategies we don't have uh many schemes uh so we have only three scheme so so you know uh all of them are doing well well and uh who can right now all of them are about 20 25% each business uh but in 20120 I'm quite sure one of them I wish my broking is the biggest While others they try to catch up Ram you booked an exceptional income as profit on sale of investments from the PE business what is the Outlook over here yeah so what happens is whenever fund comes to a closer I mean uh for last five 7 years we have been managing the fund we were getting only fee income and all the cost was loaded against that fee income so profits were very minimal in fact it might be net net loss or something like that maybe we must have booked some profit in last 78 years but uh the in private Equity business the main thing one waits for is a carry so the carry is coming it's a perfectly operational income but it doesn't come every year it comes at the end when the you close the fund uh because you have to first return the capital you have to return the promised hurdle rate and then on top of it something is left of that 20% you get so this uh I mean what you see 53 CR is part of that particular carry in next two three quarters we again expect some more amount of money depending on at what level we are able to exit and so there will be it will be there I mean quite a at least almost same amount or maybe a little more would be there in the second half of the I mean rest of the year it will be there uh but after that this this this line will dry up but just to uh complete this discussion there's a 20 cres of uh write off also in this uh quarter uh so against 53 crores you can say uh there's a 20 CR write off and uh uh you know what happens is that there is a seasonality lot of businesses in q1 are smaller than what it will be in Q4 so uh uh even if the carry bu carry profit comes down in the quarters to follow which will definitely be not there other businesses will scale up that's what is the expectation M Ram you're the a stock pick and your stock itself is making fresh highs right now at 501 which is a fresh high for your stock do you think all the positives are in the price for Mi oswal the stock or do you think the story in moal oswal has just begun this is one stock which others have to figure out I'm the I just can't figure out I'm me uh it's fun to see from other side and in fact I'm learning a lot and last 3 4 months 5 months I've been knowing this numbers this is how it is going to shape up but I was just waiting when the market takes the what do you call that uh uh the energy of the this thing and our our finance department has been very very tight lied and that's why you know till till yesterday even when we were sitting on the board the market had no clue of the number so uh so you know Market I mean what I'm learning is that uh it's a very different thing to be uh in the company and seeing it from outside I mean we keep passing judgment on a lot of companies large companies and it's still I think the uh real life is very different but would you say that The Best Is Yet To Come for motilal oswal and therefore the reflection of the stock price at 51 is just the beginning of the story I mean definitely not a beginning of the story I mean there's a lot to come Beyond out all the four businesses have lot of potential the oldest business which is 25 years old that itself has huge potential uh the other three businesses are seated now so it's a one of the uh strategic shift we did two years back where we said that we will not use we will not we will use every penny of the equity for equity and that's what is bearing it now uh hfc is just about 25 months old I mean uh and it's a ocean of opportunity like it's a huge opportunity same way uh I mean AMC I mean we we don't want to we don't want to build businesses which are going to be very small and which is not growth oriented and which doesn't have good Roe and uh cash flow so qgp you know what we I mean we talk about in investing we use every single parameter of qgp to build our own company uh now it's a lot of luck lot of leadership team I mean uh our leadership must be complimented because I'm I'm there only to guide in board meetings and all but it's all done by our staff our uh colleagues Senior Management all the uh you know employees put together so I think a lot of things are dependent on what kind of opportunities you meet up with what kind of uh uh uh you know opportunities break up what kind of investors get into your company in the particularly Asset Management side now the opportunity is global how uh you know what kind of institutional money which can flow in suddenly so we have to keep waiting but I think the I would definitely say that best is ahead best is at least in store uh going forward if you can uh if you can actually capture so multibagger in the making huh is that M the stock I mean you can use your whatever words you want to use it's a 6 7,000 CR kind of company so uh uh it's not that small a company for serious multi bagging you know I mean for for something to become 100x which I love that that's the word I you I I love 100x for 100x to be uh this thing you need to start little smaller I mean uh uh only future will tell what happens but uh uh uh I mean it is all dependent on the how the event shape up let's let's make use of uh the management then and talk a little bit about what the Outlook is for the markets you said best times ahead for the company do you share that view when it comes to the equity markets for the Long Haul yes I mean uh this is what has been the uh view for last 30 years and uh in fact if uh if you ask me today I I feel as bullish I mean 100% bullish on the market I have said this is a great time to go out and I mean you remember you interviewed me in I was in mosow last fortnite uh 15 20 days back and there we said uh it's nice and bright Sunshine let's go for shopping when markets were down th000 points so uh the equity view don't change change and uh uh Monsoon is perfect now that's one big thing which is uh underway right now except for Gujarat and Northeast almost everywhere it is normal or excess I think uh we are undermining after 3 years of drought what it can do in next 12 months to the Indian economy so things will build up I mean consumers will come out rural consumers will come out they'll buy their goodies uh and on top of it the GST is literally knocking the door it has not happened but uh this is the biggest reform it may High some trouble but I think in 5 years time like uh what has happened to the Telecom now could happen to the indirect taxes it will not only increase the uh efficiency of tax collection and ease of doing business but also uh it will increase the uh uh tax collection to GDP which has been the crying need for India I mean at 10 11% to GDP I think we just don't collect taxes and without that we cannot do development so I think once this uh GST is in place in next 2 3 years I'm sure the Tex to GDP ratio will grow and that will give enough funding for the infrastructure spend Ram you've always been of the belief that whenever it's gloomy it's time to go out and buy some of your uh you know stocks like a Nestle or for that matter pidy light already at life high does it worry you that maybe these stories are now giving you indications of profit booking or do you think these are stories where you will continue to be a believer and continue to hold on you have to I mean uh this uh the new Highs are uh scaling up to the old levels that only confirms our thought process are right but if Indian economy has to go from $2 trillion to $4 trillion in next 7 years six I mean more most likely in 5 6 years 7 years I mean the amount of discretionary spent which is going to happen for that new discretionary products are not going to come it is going to be the same maruti Suzuki for the cars it is going to be the same chocolates or the same uh you know a lot of consumer products and services so uh I think uh uh the companies particularly who have dominant position in their respective field and it is admired by their underlying consumers I think those are companies which will scale up and make a lot more money and they'll be surprised by what could be there in a store as the economy opens up in the years to come are you a little worried though Ram about the quality of earnings that one has seen it has disappointed this quarter PSU Banks or the private Banks I beg your pardon hasn't been anything impressive and fmcg as well with ITC as well as Unilever have had haven't had the best of volume so to speak so that earning surprise is still pretty much lacking how long before we actually see earnings materialize on ground and see something qualitative coming in there so earnings is uh uh you know I me we are very keenly watching this particular quarter I think infosis was a kind of a root shock uh somewhat uh in fact company had tried to guide for this quarter of the some kind of happening in the uh billing and all but I don't think the markets took it seriously and uh uh on the day of result there was a kind of shock but apart from that most of the other results are uh broadly in line uh not uh not much to uh uh look at in the sense that there's not major positive surprise out there some of the nbfcs like uh we saw the micro finance company yesterday they had a fabulous result uh now uh moal has a great result so I think uh uh we'll start seeing some growth impetus coming out uh in this quarter it's too early right now uh but uh as the as the time passes in uh next uh 2 3 weeks we will we will have better handle on the total coer earnings but my sense is that it should be better than the Q4 okay Ram congratulations on the Stell set of numbers looking forward to interacting with you more not just on your results but on the markets as well yeah sure sure thanks okay and with that we uh wrap it up right here on the show m laal is fairly buyant markets have come up 8514 but we'll carry forward all the market maret action get your top technical ideas as well riding the bull is up next
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