저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 모틸랄오스왈의 1분기 실적은 사상 최대치로, 증권·주택금융·자산운용 등 전 사업부가 성장했지만 사모펀드 성과보수는 일회성이라는 취지의 발언. 실적 개요: 매출 약 15% 증가(약 350억 루피 수준, 연결 기준 365억 루피, 전년 대비 72%↑), 순이익 약 180% 증가(연결 기준 0.80억 루피 수준으로 언급)로 상장 이후 11년 중 최대 분기 이익이라고 설명. 사모펀드(PE): 1호 펀드 회수에 따른 캐리(성과보수) 이익이 이번 분기 약 53억 루피로 반영. 투자자 원금 회수 후 발생한 20% 수익분이며 비반복적이라 매 분기 나오지는 않으나 2~3분기 더 증가할 것이라고 언급. 주택금융: 자산 약 2,500억 루피, 이익 13~14억 루피 수준으로 약 4배 성장. 이번 분기 이익도 4~5배 증가. 자산운용(AMC)은 약 9~10억 루피 이익으로 전년 손실 대비 큰 개선, 운용자산 약 1.5만 억 루피 규모. 증권(브로커리지): 6월 실적이 매우 좋았고 7월도 양호하며 영업레버리지 큼. 마진은 15%→21%로 상승, 고정비(주당 70~80루피) 통제 완료 상태에서 거래량에 따라 마진이 최대 35%까지 갈 수 있다고 언급. 4월은 부진했으나 몬순·GST 이후 하반기가 상반기보다 나을 것으로 낙관. 시장 전망: GST 법안 통과가 즉각적 실적 성장을 주지는 않으며, 좋은 몬순과 재정·경상수지 개선, 인프라 투자가 맞물려 1.5년 후 성장이 나타날 것이라는 견해. 경제 호황 시 강세장 가능. 업종 의견: NBFC(특히 주택금융·소액금융)는 공공은행·외국계은행 대출 축소 속에서 기회가 크다고 평가. 밸류에이션은 PER 24~25배, 성장률 35%면 매력적이라고 봄. 자동차(트랙터·오토바이·승용차 등 과점 업체)를 선호, 고품질 기업은 단기엔 변동성이 크나 15~20% 장기 수익 가능. 제약(인도 품질 제약사, 미국 FDA 불확실성은 점차 해소)도 고성장 업종으로 긍정적. 리스크/조건: 단기 가격 급락 가능성(50% 하락 언급), 인도 시장 시가총액/GDP 65~70%로 여유가 있다고 보나 하방 리스크 존재. 지수 8,500 수준에서도 종목별 기회 언급. 출연자 전망: 인도 주식 장기 긍정, 실적 회복·NBFC·자동차·제약 중심 낙관.
다듬은 글
And let's first take a look at Motilal Oswal Financial Services. The first quarter results were quite impressive. We have seen a circuit in the stock. If we were to tell you the results today, the revenue would be seen increasing by around 15% to reach 350 crores, while the profit has increased by 74%.
There has been an increase of around 40% in ADDA. Joining us is Ramdev Agarwal, Joint MD of Motilal Oswal Financials. Ramdev ji, welcome. Your revenue has increased by around 15%. If we give an idea from which businesses this business is coming, actually if you look at the consolidated results, the revenue is 365 crores, which is 72% higher than last year and the profit is 0.80 crores, which is around 180% more.
So this is the highest result in its entire history so far. In the 11 years since we have been listed, this is the highest quarterly profit in the businesses that have contributed, the highest in this quarter. Private equity has contributed the most in this. Due to the exit of the first fund of private equity, the carry profit coming in it is 20% profit after returning the investor's money.
The profit that we get is Rs. 53 crores booked in this quarter. So this profit is not recurring and will not come in every quarter but will increase further in two-three quarters. Business wise, the second business which has done very well is housing finance. It has grown almost four times this year and its asset book is Rs.
2500 crores and profit is Rs. 13-14 crores. This too has increased four to five times in this quarter. The asset management business has a profit of around Rs. 9-10 crores but the last loss was on that, so that is a huge delta of around Rs. 11-12 crores. The last business which is broking is also doing very well.
Particularly, it was very good in June and July is also shaping up very well and there is a lot of operating leverage in it, so there is good traction in that too, all the four businesses. It is running very well and in this quarter almost you can see less than peak performance, that is why you are seeing peak profit.
After this peak performance, Mr. Agarwal, what will be your future strategy to maintain these levels? The home finance business that you are talking about, will it be a growth driver going forward? What are the expectations? What are the preparations for it? Yes, see, all the four businesses are capable of a lot of growth in themselves.
The oldest business is broking. What happens in it is that it grows according to the way the market moves. So now you see, in 2003 we thought how much this business can grow. In the bull run from 2003 to 2007, there was a growth of 100 times, a business worth Rs. 10 crore became Rs. 1000 crore. So, I am not saying that there is any such opportunity right now, but we do not know how big it will become.
We have covered the expenses and have employed 2000 people. We have been recruiting for a long time, training has been done very well, brand equity has also been maintained very carefully, so everything is ready in that, so it could be a big surprise that depending on the way the market shapes up in the next three to four years, your opportunity in housing finance will be created accordingly.
Again, it is very large. We have only completed two years in this, we are still learning and have a book of Rs. 100 crores, so it is among the smallest ones, but the intention is to do such big work in it, so it will grow steadily. Similarly, it is also in AMC, we are managing equity of around Rs. 15,000 crores in AMC and the scope there is also very good, so we have enough growth engines for them.
Now see which engine works how big and how the opportunity comes, profit will be generated accordingly. Here Ramdev ji, the margin of the brokerage segment has increased from 15 to 21 percent quarter on quarter, how did this happen and what other scope, you will see, what guidance will be there in this.
In this, your margin can go up to 35% provided the growth is continuous. This means that the fixed expenditure of Rs. 70-80 per share is fixed. So, we have completed the fixed expenditure. Now, we have no control over the client activity level in the short term. We keep queering clients, but if there is no trading opportunity and there is no buy-sell opportunity, then what happens is that the activity level decreases.
So, right now we are seeing that in particular, April was not that good. June was very good. July is also shaping up quite well. So, we are seeing that as the monsoon is gaining ground, confidence in the market is also increasing in terms of trading. So, the environment of considerable trading activity is good.
From here, we feel that after a good monsoon and GST, the second half will be better than the first half. So, we are optimistic in this. Whatever happens, we will know. Further, Ramdev ji, an interesting thing that we are seeing, since we can also have a little general discussion with you, is that IT disappointed.
After that, you should see not only your results but the results of others as well, for example, SKS, which is Bharat Financial, are also good. So, the NBFC S&A segment is rekindling some hope. Do you think that this should be seen as a trend and in the future also, financial companies will keep the market mood better and there will be opportunities here.
It seems that the specialized NBFCs whose positioning is good, whose work is good, whose underwriting quality is good and in which segment, like housing, housing particularly is booming right now in terms of demand. The arrival of micro finance was also very good and the slowdown that has happened in the lending or activities business of public sector banks and the slowdown that has happened in the activities business of foreign banks, many banks are shrinking here.
Looking at this, in the entire private banking space and more particularly the NBFC space, I think the opportunity there is quite big. Now who Smaller banks and smaller NBFCs can have a higher growth rate, but is valuation comfortable for you in this sector? Yes, I mean, valuation has to be taken in terms of keeping growth in mind and letting growth in mind.
If you see, if a company is at a P/E of 25-27 and is growing at 30-35, then its price to book appears to be very high. Because, if for example, the P/E is 25 at 25 and the RO is at 20, then the book value becomes 5. And in the past history, giving a P/E of 1.5 or more is very strange for people. So, right now it is trading at a book value of 5, which is why there is a lot of discomfort.
But the growth is so high right now and the growth can continue for the next 5 years or even 10 years. So, in my opinion, if you are buying at 24-25 P/E for a company that is growing at 35, I think it should not be a The problem is it should be a good investment. Okay, so you like the valuations here.
There is opportunity in NBFCs. But one thing the market has been eyeing for a long time is GST. And today we are getting information that this will probably come up for discussion in the Rajya Sabha next week. The market is definitely in wait and watch mode. Let us assume that this GST bill is passed in the third week.
How much more upside or how much absence will we see because as you said till now there has been interest in equities, retail investors are returning. The possibility of how much more upside increases here. Look, first the participation will increase. Returns will not be very big until there is earnings growth.
Where you see the companies which have earnings growth, like today there was good earnings growth in Motilal Haswal. The market gave an immediate salute, it increased by 15 per cent. So this correlation of earnings growth market performance, you cannot take it away now. Suddenly, there will not be any increase in earnings growth due to the introduction of GST.
The company's earnings will not grow a little. There are a couple of very strong companies which have made huge profits and have not passed them on. So, there will be some margin expansion but that is very less. So GST cannot give you earnings growth. So, but after one and a half year, clearly a good monsoon plus a good current account deficit, good fiscal deficit, good management of the government finance, then your investment into the infrastructure, all this together will bring good growth and wherever there is growth, the market will salute it.
The day the entire economy is in boom condition, you will see a bull run here. Absolutely, but then the question will be that if the mood is good in such a situation, then what should be bought? Which is that sector? Like I said about NBFCs, which are the other sectors which may not disappoint but may give a little positive surprise and where returns can be obtained?
In this result season, I cannot talk about this result season because that is a trading and I don't know how to make money out of the trading but in other terms. Investing in good businesses, in fact, you don't have to look at the business. You have to look at the companies. The good companies will definitely do well.
So, for example, your automotive, now look at every automotive company. If you go into tractors, you have only two companies, Lako and Ashok. If you go into motorcycles, there is Bajaj or R. So, there are very consolidated positions everywhere. The car market is at 45%. So, these are the businesses.
If these businesses do well, then these are category winners and they will do very well because if these businesses win, if these businesses win, these companies will also win. So, in this way, one after the other, you will have to find discretionary spends. And there, because these good companies are not cheap, so it can be quite challenging in the short term.
If you buy something for Rs. 000, the price can fall by 50% in a month, two months, three months, five months, so buying high quality companies for short term at current prices could be Quite challenging, but for the long term, try to make 15-20 per cent. I think they are the best options. Another sector where the market was a bit pessimistic and mystical, but there has been a positive surprise is pharma.
With Biocon's results, do you think this is also a value segment? This is not a value segment, it is a huge growth segment, but there will be money to be made here because India has a huge competitive advantage in quality pharma. Globally, be it Japan, America, or Europe, Indian companies are exporting everywhere.
There is a little uncertainty due to US inspections. This has happened for the first time in some companies, so that uncertainty will end sooner or later. Right now we are seeing that approvals have come very rapidly in the last three-four months. So, the long-term future of this sector is very good.
You will have to understand which company is good right now, but this sector will get very promising. The numbers will be better for the companies. Will this be the best time, especially for those investors who have not yet I have not been able to participate in the party, I have not been able to participate in the market even though the index is at 8500 but there are a lot of stock specific ideas which should not be missed at this time, look at investing in Indian equities, this is a very right time, it is very depressed, if you look at P empty then earnings are depressed right now, then you will see P multiple a little high, P multiple of 18 19 20, it will seem that there is no room in P right now, earnings are not visible, so why are you buying, but the question is that earnings are broadly very depressed because of the slowdown in the economy, right now the market cap to GDP, the broader ratio is around 65 70, so there is a lot of room in it, I think, in the next two-three years, four years, whenever good times come for the global economy, Indian economy, at that time this will at least become P, so GDP itself is growing at 10 12, if in the next 3 years, GDP If it increases by 50, and your current market cap GDP, which is two-thirds, if it happens once, then the market can double in three to four years.
There is so much room for downside, definitely on the stock market. Whenever we talk about upside, we should not forget about the downside. The downside can definitely be 101 from here, and that will be temporary. So, there will be some great opportunities here. Thank you very much, Ramdev ji, thank you for taking out time for us.
So, this is Ramdev Agarwal after his excellent results from Motilal Oswal Financials. Also, he looked at some investment ideas. He is quite positive on the entire NBFC sector. He feels that while stocks may seem expensive today, you should take a position and buy. Also, the auto sector is another one of his favorite sectors at the moment.
But today, after a short break, our experts will join us: Manish Sharma to give his opinion on technical trades, and Rahul [Sangeet] Shah from Motilal Oswal to advise on derivatives.
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