저자: RamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
인도 주식시장은 2년간의 횡보를 끝내고 실적 반등기에 진입했으며, 향후 4분기 이상 20% 안팎의 이익 성장이 이어질 것이라는 낙관론이다. 실적 흐름: 이번 분기 상장기업 이익이 20% 이상 성장하는 실적 서프라이즈 시즌이 시작됐고, 일부 기업은 60~70% 성장을 기록했다. 소형주 이익 성장률은 약 32%, 니프티 이익 성장률은 약 15%로 언급됐다. 이익 가속의 시작으로 보며 최소 4분기는 기저효과로 성장이 유지될 것으로 본다. 성장 동력: GST 세율을 28%에서 18%로 인하하고, 신용 공급이 9~10%에서 17~18%로 확대된 정책 변화가 수요와 마진 구조를 끌어올리고 있다. 법인세 수입은 8월 중순 기준 22~23% 증가, GST 징수는 약 15% 증가 중이며 경기는 호조라고 평가했다. 추가 GST 인하는 기대하지 않는다. 이익 전망: 니프티 주당이익은 올해 약 1,250루피, 내년 1,425~1,450루피로 전망. 향후 4~5년간 니프티 이익 성장률 12~14% 유지 가능하다고 봤다. 시장 전망: 지정학 리스크(이란 전쟁 등)와 원화 약세로 외국인(FII) 매도가 이어졌으나 매도 속도는 둔화됐다. 시장이 이익을 따라잡는 데 6개월 정도 지연될 수 있으며, 1~3분기 내 2분기 실적 확인이 나오면 비관에서 낙관으로 전환될 것으로 봤다. 지정학 리스크가 해소되면 시장이 오버슈트할 수 있다고 언급했다. 업종·테마: 자동차, 데이터센터, 전력 변압기, 자본시장 관련주는 강세를 이어갈 것으로 보고, 소비재·FMCG·QSR 등 그동안 부진했던 소비 업종도 회복될 것이라고 봤다. 퀵커머스(Blinkit, Zepto, Instamart 등)는 향후 4~5년간 40~50% 성장하고 오프라인 식료품 점유율을 잠식할 것이며, 수익화까지 2~3년, 10년 후 큰 이익이 기대된다고 전망했다. 제푸(Zepto) 상장 밸류에이션 논란에 대해서는 상장 기업 밸류에이션이 상향될 수 있다고 봤다. 금융: 민간은행은 리더십 교체와 합병 과정의 고통을 거치는 중이며, 이익 성장이 대출 성장을 앞서는 시점이 트리거가 될 것으로 보고 최근 매출 성장 회복 조짐을 긍정 평가했다. 다만 리더 은행 밸류에이션이 섹터 전체를 제약하고 있다고 진단했다. 자본시장(증권·AMC)은 AUM이 10년간 연 30% 성장했고 향후 10~15년간 대폭 확대될 것으로 전망했다. 제조: 인도 제조업은 국내 소비와 수출을 함께 겨냥하는 기업이 유리하며, 미국 기업들의 인도 생산 확대와 서비스 기업의 글로벌화가 기회라고 봤다.
다듬은 글
this stage. Well, uh we've got uh you know, Ramdeo Agarwal, chairman and co-founder, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, now joining us. The 22nd Motilal Oswal annual global investor conference kicks off today. And uh Ramdeoji, it's a pleasure. Good morning. Great to have you with us here. Uh and uh you know, lovely to see you.
What What's the What's top of mind, Ramdeoji, for for you, for your Yeah. for your team as you put this together uh as you put this event together. What What's What's really top of mind? Yeah, Prashant, after 2 years of stagnation in the market, I think the earning blowout earning season has started.
We have started with uh upwards of 20% kind of a growth across the kind of a listed space, and that is what is the main theme. I mean, how far How long market will take? How many more quarters it will take uh to stay here or below and and not recognize the earning growth. So, that's the that's the kind of uh discussion.
And a lot of earning surprises have come in last week. So, uh and they have blowout earnings. I mean, 70%, 60%. So, I think uh people are discussing whether it is right, it is sustainable, uh how how secular it is. So, those are kind of uh discussion. So, earning growth of this quarter is the main kind of a discussion point.
And of course, other geopolitical issues will come up. But right now, I'm discussing in the morning about the earnings. Mhm. And you know, we had uh Ramdeoji Gautam who who put out the numbers uh on Friday when he was with us. Some 32% growth earnings growth for small cap still that point. Uh you know, Nifty earnings some 15% growth.
So, what is your sense if I ask you? Uh Is this because you know, the markets will price where things will be, not where things are. Because what is where we are we where things already are or earnings in the bank is already in the price. What What do you think? Is this uh is earnings re-acceleration uh the start of earnings re-acceleration or this is kind of a one-off and you can't really bet on it.
What What is your sense? My sense is this is start of a earnings acceleration. And this is the first quarter. So, at least four quarters in any case it is going to be there because the base effect will be there. But my sense is that economy after I think the policy makers have definitely dialed change with a GST cut from 28 to 18% and credit flow change from 9 10% to 17 18%.
I think these are two uh two things which I see as driving the entire demand structure and margin structure. So, if we continue I mean of course our GST now is still there 18. I don't expect any further cut in the days to come. But if you look at other high high frequency numbers, your corporate tax collection is up 22 23% in the till 15th of August or something like that.
And your GST collection is growing at about 15%. So, I think economy is really rocking. Uh just that the geopolitical thing is putting pressure on the currency. So, that keeps one of the very important participant that is FIIs uh at the margin. But otherwise, I think this is the earning season which has started off very well.
And my sense is it is going to go on till it is broken in the sense that nothing goes on at 22% for very long time. But my estimate is that for next four five years, 12 to 14% kind of a earnings growth we should sustain in Nifty. And Nifty earnings now this year is going to about 1,250 rupees and next year it could be 1,425 to 1,450.
So, that's how things are shaping up. Sandeep ji, is this kind of an earnings growth is sufficient catalyst for us to break out of this consolidation range and markets give us a 15-20% kind of an annual growth because while this is firing, as you said, crude is still elevated, the AI trade globally, while it may have plateaued, it hasn't corrected and the FIs are still absent.
So, when you counterbalance the two, what kind of market returns should we expect? Yeah, eventually earnings the markets catch up with the earnings, whether in the stocks or markets. I mean, yes, there have because of external fears. Despite that, earnings growth is coming. So, business is doing well, economy is doing well.
So, markets can I mean, the job of the market is to price the earnings. So, they they may be a little lazy or maybe out of fear, they may get delayed by 6 months or something like that. But eventually, and first thing is that even the headline, this Iran war or whatever war is there or geopolitical challenges, that also subsides.
So, the moment it subsides, it the market just you know, kind of overshoots. So, we don't know when it will subside. It is said in the market that you know what is going to happen, but you don't know when exactly it is going to happen. So, that's a that's the situation right now. Earnings will keep going from say 11:50 to 12:50 to 14:50.
So, we know I mean, I mean, markets cannot be ignored for a very long time. And you might be seeing FIs are already their selling has already slowed down. So, it's just a matter of time, maybe one quarter, two quarters, three quarters. I mean, maybe market will find another quarter of earnings confirmation that in Q2 also the earnings are growing at about I mean, same kind of earning excitement there of 15 to 20%.
Once that is there, then I think markets will get into from a pessimistic zone to optimistic zone. Mhm. And do you see a continuation of the same themes doing well? Like autos, for example, you know, the data centers, power transformers. They've been doing well. Will that continue or are you seeing new themes emerging the market?
If one has to play for the next three or five years? Yeah, so the the ones which have winning in this round like auto or data center companies or capital market companies, so they will do well, but many more sectors like consumers and all which were consumer FMCG and all those things, they were very very slow for last decade or so, but QSRs and I think all of them will pick up.
You'll see the I must say that very surprising number is coming also from the consumption side. So, my sense is this boom will spread in the economy as well as in the earnings. Uh, one has to keep watching where exactly it emerges, but but the wealth effect will drive earnings of even consumption companies.
Mhm. Uh, in some of the discretionary areas especially, uh, right? Uh, and and yeah, you know, so let's talk about some of the specific segments around the G. You know, I have to ask you about the entire quick commerce space. I mean, you're an early believer around the G. Uh, and and you know, across the companies, uh, you've been an you've been an investor.
Uh, a lot's happening. You know, most companies are well capitalized. Uh, the the newest one was trying to IPO and I I think I mean, perhaps the plans got pushed out a little bit. Just I mean, I'm sure there will be discussion, debate, etc. which will come up the come up with the conference. How has your thinking evolved around the G across that segment?
I think the sector will keep growing beyond more than 50% for few years to come, maybe four or five years. It'll grow at about 40-50% whereas the the consumption itself will grow at about 40-50. You see all the consumption consumer companies, large consumer companies, the fastest growing channel for their distribution is quick commerce and they're becoming like a 30 40% 50% of their of their entire offering.
So, some of the guys they are saying that eventually next 10 years the general GT which is our corner store that will become say 50 60% kind of a thing and another 35 at least 1/3 of the entire FMCG distribution will become quick commerce and that's why not only our Blinkit Zepto and Insta they're doing well in terms of top line growth but also Flipkart and Amazon they're also putting their serious bets.
So, I think this segment is going to become much bigger. Now, when will they start making money? No, whenever new segment emerges in any part of the world it takes time because the the the category building itself takes some kind of a capital loss and that is what is this sector is going through and I'm quite sure the investors have to have some patience and in the years to come maybe another 2 years or so or 3 years or so they'll start making some amount of money and in 10 years time they'll make humongous amount of money.
The beauty of this money which whoever makes it is that the return on equity because the balance sheet is completely written off there's nothing in the balance sheet the ROI will be upwards of 100%. So, I think the multiples for these companies when you have 100% kind of a ROI and a growth of 30 40% the P multiple could be upwards of 100 for the earnings of these companies.
So, and they're truly FMCG in the sense that truly high frequency 24 by 7. So, my sense is that yes a lot of things will change but this is a new category which is coming up and we have but making money requires you don't know when the stock will move. I know what is going to happen in the sector but I don't know how much time you'll have to what kind of patience you have to bring to make money out of this?
Mhm. Oh, you're absolutely right. By the way, I have to ask you this, Randhiji, were you surprised? I mean, with the Zepto IPO, there was I mean, a pushback on valuations and what the what the ask was and what what the market was willing to offer. I mean, those things happen, but were you were you surprised and and how do you Yeah, go on.
Yeah. All kinds of things happen because when the markets are not ready for particular type of a stock, I mean, these are kind of things happen, but yeah, I mean, then I mean, it is for the entrepreneur to figure out I mean, what are the plan B and plan C because that's a that's a journey of an entrepreneur.
I mean, always it happens that when when you look for support from the market, market may not give, and when you actually don't look for support from the market, market still takes you to the sky high. So, yeah, I mean, those are part of the game. You have As an entrepreneur, you have to figure out your your your own journey, how you succeed.
Yeah. So, now do you think sir, valuations could be capped for these quick commerce companies because what the third player, one of the key players, didn't get the valuations they demanded? No, why should it be capped? The the guys who are who are listed, they are climbing every day higher, and they are growing at 100%.
So, why should their I mean, the guys who are listed, they are successful guys. So, their valuation should climb up. And and here again, because of internet-based trading, I mean, business, the winner could have a very disproportionate takeaway from the market. So, I think valuations of say Blinkit or what you call Aeterno, could show the way for other companies' valuations.
Okay. Got that. So, so, that's that's one. Randhiji, talk talk to us a little bit about Again, something you believed in for a while, right? I mean the last time you were around you were talking about uh uh the the financial story. Uh private banks which have done very well, right? Uh and which have done which have not done which have which have not done very well.
Uh and you were saying that they are very attractive, but it needs a it needs a trigger. It needs to it needs a point where you know, the valuations turn into uh people willing to bet money on uh private financials, large private banks basically. And then you what's your sense? Now as we speak this morning.
Yeah, this segment is a one of the largest profit uh contributor to the uh [clears throat] Nifty and the entire corporate profits. And uh in last 25-30 years, it is one of the best story out of Indian corporate sector starting from '95. And HDFC led all the way and everybody's dream, every single guy who got the license, their dream was to become the next HDFC Bank.
So, this is what happened and now there is a there is a for last 2-3 years this leadership transition is happening. And I think they might be I mean these things are very painful. And I I hope that uh they are they're at the end of what you call uh transition and merger. Merger and transition I would say.
And uh we should see the growth coming back. I think top line growth has already started coming in in last quarter. At some point of time I think even the uh even the bottom line growth will uh will come. Uh I have no doubt. Until then, markets will remain kind of a range-bound for them. And uh meanwhile, even FIIs have been selling very aggressively in last 12 months.
And those sellings will continue we know. So, uh that is what is keeping uh the uh sectors upward march despite this result uh It's kind of a cap. Because if the leader leader is valued at uh a [clears throat] very attractive price, others will will be benchmarked to leader's valuation and hence the entire sector will remain some some somewhat subdued not not getting the full flow of their earnings.
Mhm. Uh you you you said that well the trigger perhaps will be when profit growth starts to outpace loan growth, right? And uh the for for private banks and maybe as you said we perhaps are closer to it. The other area in the financial services space is capital markets which I think continues to do very well.
Uh and and that that thesis is Yeah. is is uh there's no change, right? I mean I see at the beginning of the year I remember one of our conversations you were saying that the IPO at that point it was looking like the after a hot hot 2025 2026 will be a little thunder, but of course it is not thunder and there are lots of big IPOs etc.
lined up. But I mean it's not just about IPOs the primary market action just generally the capital markets space is doing very well. Yeah. Yeah. [clears throat] Uh stock market providing access to access to a lot of new companies, new enterprises, small and mid caps, even larger caps, even to the government of India through LIC and other PSU divestment.
So I think there is a ample flow of money from DII or our retail investors across the country across the time and that is giving completely new fuel to the growth of the economy, growth of the capital market, and growth of all the constituents of the capital market. Look at the AMC growth and last I think the 10 years it has grown about 30% AUM growth despite the fact for last two years has not grown.
So at you will forget about 30% even at 25% right now AUM is about uh 80 lakh crores. And we even if it grows about 20%, we are talking about uh uh 400 to 500 lakh crores worth of AUM in next 10 years. So, that's the kind of a gigantic uh and the probability of this happening is very high. I mean, nobody can say for 100%, but I mean, this kind of expansion uh and and it will it will uh it will have a huge impact on the real economy.
So, I don't have any doubts about the expansion of capital market, and it's a wonderful business with uh very little capital employed. Uh but, a lot of intellectuals are required, a lot of relationships are required, a lot of trust is required. So, it's a very different kind of business. And it is by far the biggest business in the world.
I mean, the largest AMC in the world, they are having more upwards of 15 trillion dollars under belt. Uh we are not even a trillion dollar for the entire nation. So, I think uh we have a lot to see uh will happen in next 10-15 years. I hope we keep growing at about 7.5-8%. And nominal of 11-12%, and you'll see the magic happening.
Mhm. But, AMC industry AUM, you're saying I mean, that can grow at about 15-20%. That's the uh Yeah, AUM has grown about 30% in last uh uh in last 10 years. Yeah. Yeah. Uh no, you're absolutely right. Uh you know, the other area is this entire which we've not which we don't which we don't talked about that much, but manufacturing, right?
Uh I know you've got Yeah. Uh and this morning, there's this news of Reliance and Rolls-Royce, right? Uh tying up to try and make a uh you know, a jet engine, which is like uh right up there in terms of you know, the engineering excellence etc. required. So, uh you know, the the manufacturing scene is buzzing.
Uh the private rockets and orbit and whatnot. Lots of stuff. I know you keep a close eye. Uh the G. What part from an investor a point of view should one focus on within the manufacturing landscape? Many believe it's manufacturing exports, rupees depreciated, you got a little competitive advantage because of that.
Just your thoughts. Yeah, I would I would I would think that still because of geopolitics the way it is happening and will happen in the years to come. I think the importance of manufacturing and consumption in India will have far more productivity than manufacturing and only exporting. I mean how so ever how so ever strong competitive edge you have even if it is a farmer or any other place manufacturing is going to be extremely competitive out of India in the years to come and even now.
So so we have a huge competitive edge, but the geopolitics said that tomorrow anybody can shut the market or they can put tariffs or things like that. So having a good mix of manufactured products consumed in India and and also being exported outside. I think those kind of companies will do very well, but I I keep getting a lot of excitement in terms of new companies which are very global in character and they're also coming from services side, not only from manufacturing side.
And a lot of companies we are seeing who are who are actually American companies and they want to manufacture only in India because the competitive edge, the technologies, R&D, everything is so much more affordable and doable in India. So I think what we saw in Infosys and TCS where Indian cost American value or global value, I think that kind of thing should happen at a scale out of India.
Okay. Ramdevji, thank you very much for joining us. I know you have a session to go to. We'll let it We'll let you go. Appreciate your time here on CNBC-TV18. It's always a pleasure. Thank you. Thank you. Okay. Well, that's Ramdeo Agarwal, day one of the Motilal Oswal Global Investor Conference with some perspective on what's up with Vine earnings, certainly the sustainability of some of these blowout numbers as he called it right in the beginning.
And of course, I mean, some talk around sectors and themes that is on his mind. But the market
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