저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 단기 시장 변동에 흔들리지 말고 10~25년 장기 관점에서 인도 시장과 AI 성장에 베팅해야 한다는 주장. [단기 변동성 vs 장기 베팅] 최근 10일간 낙폭 이후 반등했지만, 본인은 강세장에서 강세를 말하는 건 쉬운 일이며 하락장에서 낙관하는 것이 중요하다고 강조. 단기(수개월) 맞히기는 의미가 없고 10년·25년 단위로 사고 있다고 설명. [세계 부 성장 및 인도 전망] 과거 50~75년간 세계는 연 약 7%(달러 명목) 부유해졌고, 인도는 약 14%로 두 배 빠르게 성장. 인도는 향후 50년 이상 성장 가능성이 높다고 주장. 중국 등 다른 신흥국도 성장하나 인도가 더 빠름. [미국 시장 집중] 지난 15~20년간 미국은 글로벌 시가총액 비중이 약 30%에서 50%로 확대. 시총 약 70조 달러 규모로 개별 기업이 인도 전체보다 큼. 외국인(FII) 자금 흐름은 단기 노이즈로 보며 신경 쓸 필요 없다는 입장. 글로벌 펀드가 인도 소형주를 보지 않는 것은 규모가 작기 때문이라고 설명. [AI 전망] 모바일·인터넷 등 15~20년 주기로 큰 기술 변화가 왔으며 AI도 그 흐름. 소비자 AI(글쓰기 등)는 이미 보편화됐으나 기업·정부용 AI는 도입이 어렵고 시간이 걸림. 소프트웨어 비용이 낮아지면 수요는 무한히 늘어난다는 논리. 1~1.5년간 기존 모델과 신규 모델의 재조정 후 수요가 폭발할 것으로 봄. [IT 서비스 기업] IT 기업은 생존은 확실하나 얼마나 성장할지는 기술 확산 속도와 자체 적응력에 달려 있다고 판단. 특정 종목 추천은 없음. [리스크] 시장 위험 고지 문구 있음. 낙관론이 중심이며 구체적 목표가나 기간별 수치 예측은 제시되지 않음.
다듬은 글
Ram very warm welcome and I think it couldn't be a better time to talk to you right now because you've always been optimistic bullish about the Indian markets and in the last 10 days those who had faith have been rewarded. Would you say? Yeah, I mean see in anything that is most important and you have to be bullish when actually markets are bad.
In bullish market to be bullish is not a big deal. What's the big deal about it? I mean the market is up 3% and if you are not on the buy side even if you are short you say I'm bullish. You know so you have to you have to be bullish when my chips are down. But were you bullish say 10 days ago when chips really looked down?
There was a point at which we were thought we were brink of maybe a nuclear war and it's very sad that you thought you would it in a day so you would be worried. India seemed to have been suffering the most as far as equity markets are concerned. Were you bullish even then? Yes. See because see there are there are two types of dialogue.
When you have 10 months dialogue it's a very different thing. When you have 10 year dialogue very I mean in your own mind different things will come up. You know if you want to be right or wrong in 10 months time or 3 months time or tomorrow or day after then I mean God knows what to say or probably just about who is buying selling and those kind of stuff.
But when you are buying for 10 years 20 years I typically think that I'm buying for 25 years. You know I mean it's it's it's different that I'm not right every time. But I always buy thinking that it's 2025 year kind of bet. So the dialogue is very different actually. In my mind it is dialogue is very different and that gives me if you see my last wealth creation study which we did just now.
See [clears throat] what the what is the summary of the report? The summary of the report is the world is becoming wealthier year after year. If you see last 50 years 75 years world is becoming wealthier. India is becoming wealthier at double the speed. World is becoming wealthier at 7% dollar nominal dollar.
We are becoming wealthier at 14% nominal dollar. Now 14% is not double of 7%. If you take a 10 15 year you know profile. So India is emerging very rapidly. Of course other countries are also emerging like China. base case which is the reason why India is emerging more rapidly? That is also one of the the same that also allows me to be emerging for next 50 years.
Yeah. You know so it's a very long story and there are very few compounded country predictable countries. Because one is of course nothing can beat US. US is one and the only one you know like in last 15 20 years US has gone from 30 30% of total global market cap share to 50%. You imagine the world is growing at 7% in that US went from 30% to 50%.
See they are for 10 year 10 10 months. They want to be right in the next one year two years. I don't care. I want to be right on 10 year basis. So you're saying that the average investor should not worry about the FII figures today. We were earlier this morning speaking with prominent market voice and he said exactly this that the conversations he's having with his friends who manage India for global funds is that I mean I don't think but I know one is looking at India right now globally.
Yeah. Why aren't they seeing all of these points that you are talking about? I mean India for them is very small. See like if there is one micro cab where there a lot of excitement is happening I don't care. Because in my scheme of things that 100 200 crore company or 300 crore company I cannot buy enough.
So I don't bother about what's happening in that company. India in their mind is something like that and particularly if you're sitting in US which is now 70 trillion dollar what do you call market cap where single companies are bigger than India. Well would you bother about an an India or would you bother about thousands of companies in India?
So it has become like that and US is doing extremely well thanks to this AI and AI led capex and whatever is happening there. It's crazy I mean it looks it's scary. I mean if they have 55 60% of the global market cap can they go to 70 75% types? That's the kind of run. If you look at internet based businesses they are the only guys.
There's nobody. From a 10 year perspective how are you looking at AI? Are you looking at it at the next big thing we should be worried because you know that's that's the horizon or is it something which is being overestimated right now? It's very tough to say for me but it's a very big development. These kind of times happen every 15 20 years I mean we saw the mobile phone coming in then we saw internet coming in then we saw the internet and mobile coming together that exploded everything out here I mean literally everything payment and scheduling and your road everything is out here and more and more things are coming so we have seen that adventure and now AI will do its own magic in what way consumer electronic consumer AI we have seen you know where you can get your essays right for your son you can get your letter well written those kind of things are done.
But the enterprise AI is a very different ballgame and that's where enterprise and government AI is not that easy nut to crack. It's not that easy as people are talking about that will also require a lot of intelligent people to run it. You can write your own essay on your own but you can't run a company with you can you can't give us one instruction and the company will be run.
So yes you might do your things faster but it's also not the situation that requirement of AI or software are limited. One of the funny thing or best thing is when things become cheaper particularly software becomes cheaper demand is unlimited literally infinite. So in say today if there are million projects are there in the system and the million projects could be say 20% or 30% faster in execution.
There are 10 more million projects are waiting to happen. So what do you do with that? So I think eventually demand will explode. That's my sense right now for a year year and a half there will be readjustment of the old model and new model and then eventually the new model will explode I mean once the software is developed once the way enterprise will adopt AI if that is clear I think all the projects will be done by the same services companies.
So you think IT companies will survive thrive and come out smelling of roses because Survive for sure how much they will thrive it depends on their own adaptability and at what pace diffusion of the technology happens through enterprises. Investment in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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