저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
요약 보기
장기 투자 관점을 강조하며 단기 고위험 투자 질문에 직접 답하지 않음 단기 종목 추천은 하지 않고, 본인은 10년 이상 장기 투자로 원칙을 지킨다고 설명 전쟁·유가 충격 관련 이번 중동 사태는 자신과 직접 관련 없는 전쟁이며, 이란 GDP 비중은 약 0.3%에 불과 문제는 호르무즈 해협 봉쇄에 따른 원유·LNG·석유화학(플라스틱·헬륨) 공급 차질 유가가 110~119달러까지 오르며 인도 같은 에너지 수입국(70~80%)의 기업 실적과 원가 구조에 영향 플라스틱 제품 가격은 30~50% 상승, 포장 원가 부담 증가, 즉각 전가는 어려워 인플레이션 압력 발생 정부가 유류세로 일부 흡수 중이나 선거 후 재검토 가능성 있음 그 결과 기업 이익 성장률이 예상 15%에서 12~13% 수준으로 낮아질 수 있다고 봄 시장 구조 변화 2020년까지는 외국인(FI) 중심 시장이었으나 국내 기관(DI) 자금이 빠르게 커지는 구조적 변화 진행 중 국내 투자자 계좌는 약 30만에서 300만 명으로 10배 증가 외국인은 인도와 세계 사이 차익거래 기계 역할을 하며, 향후에도 매도 우위가 이어질 것으로 봄 6~8개월은 둔화 가능하나 5년 내 국내 기관 자금은 2배로 증가할 것으로 전망 예금금리 2.5~3% 대비 인플레이션 3~5%로 인해 주식 자금 유입 유인이 커짐 개인투자자 참여 NSE 데이터상 개인 활성 참여는 감소했다는 지적이 있으나, 본인이 운영하는 대형 증권 플랫폼 기준 3월 매출은 전년 대비 37% 증가 예측 대상 자산 발언 특정 자산의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 명시적 예측 없음 인도 시장 전반에 대해 구조적으로 상승 기조 유지 및 기업 이익 둔화 우려를 언급했으나 대상 목록 자산에 대한 단기 방향 발언은 없음
다듬은 글
You think I have 10 lakhs to invest for 9 to 10 months with high risk return. Please tell me the two three shares not mutual funds. Share to but I can name first of all that. I want to come to the thought behind the query. Invest with a horizon of 9 to 10 months with high risk high return. I have no idea for 9 to 10 months guys.
I'm telling you. Now this is about 10 years. Is this the worst idea for investors right now? it's not see See there are million guys there are million ways of making money. Mhm. The beauty of the markets are like that. You know, if there are million guys actually there are million ways of making money.
You have found your way of making money. You don't have to bother about jokers like us. You know, so because I have my way of making money. I'm at peace. I run a company and I have I invest. I enjoy investing. Mhm. So since I have made from zero, I can also be extra I can be extremely patient guy. Mhm.
You know, I can see a lot of adversity. I have seen a lot of adversity. I have seen 67% 56% correction in the market in my portfolios. So it doesn't I mean the the downside so long as the story of the company is right, it doesn't hurt me. It doesn't pain me. It doesn't take my sleep away. No. I'm pretty peaceful, but is that the kind of temperament everybody has?
Obviously not. Mhm. You know, so you have to see your temperament and what works for you and how you have been able to in in market it's not that today's a day one. So if you are there for 5 10 years, you must have found your way of making money. Just stay with that and keep making money. If if you have actually made money if it's worked for you.
That is the important part. You know, I think in India there is I I can challenge in last five five years back if anybody has come if he has not made money, I need to get and if he has invested he's not he's speculated of course almost 90% would have lost money. But if he has invested purely, he would have made money maybe not 20% 30% but 10 12 better than fixed income he would have definitely made.
Mhm. I want to ask you a question Yeah. very you know candidly. In the last five six weeks when all of this war stuff started coming in we saw crude go up to 110 119 no idea people are talking about 150. Was there any point at which the bull inside Ramdev Agarwal was scared or worried? Were you worried?
No. Not one single day? No, why I'm telling you because ultimately we are not in the we are not this is not our war. Mhm. We are indirectly impacted. Iran itself is just about 0.3% of global GDP. First when the this kind of thing happens I go and see the Wikimedia. How big is the company which is country which is under destruction?
So Iran is just about 300 billion dollar country. Okay, why it became so serious is because of Gulf of Hormuz where lot of this oil comes out and 15 20% of oil moves petrochemical moves your LNG moves your plastics move helium moves. So those things I mean so many rich countries are sending their petroleum products out.
So so that became a issue, you know, and then oil has started climbing. And we are 70 80% energy importer. So directly indirectly that is started hurting the company's performances supply chain and the cost structure and so like plastic products are up by 30 40 50%. So obviously the packaging cost and wherever packaging intensity is there those companies have to pay and can they pass on immediately?
Obviously not. So it it brings inflationary pressure. Government is absorbing to some extent petrol diesel hike but how long? After elections and all they will also kind of reconsider this. So that will take away my my purchasing power out to whoever is supplying the energy. So to that extent they'll be hurt and hence the corporate earnings will be hurt.
So if my corporate earning was to grow by 15% next year that might grow at 13% 12%. But it didn't bother you before beyond that. Yeah and market had already corrected. So what is there to bother? I'm doing it two questions in fact if I can be a little greedy. One [snorts] typically these war driven or even driven bottoms you know make the base for the next bull run.
But with FI participation not returning do you see that happening in the next one to maybe three years? That's the first part. And the second part is we've already seen that the retail participation direct retail participation in markets is starting to dwindle. So in part you've already answered this but how does retail approach this?
You know, typically you see when the markets are rising retail comes in and when markets go down retail exits. So how does a retail participant an individual approach this? Asset allocation or still continue and you know have that faith in the markets and still keep on investing? I don't know. So many questions are there which one to Ha So So I'll tell you see stock market is going through a structural change.
In last five years say till 2020 it was very FI dominated market and Indian institutions were not that strong because the retail flow was very very limited. Come 2020 and three we instead of 300,000 customers we are getting as a system 3 million customers 10x. And till last month we got it. Okay? So this is structural shift of the Indian market.
And so DI flow is staggering and it will keep becoming bigger. I don't have any doubts. Maybe for six months eight months it could slow down but if you if you look at say five years hence forth it will double if it was five lakhs or seven lakhs this year it will be 2x of that in five to seven years.
So that will keep increasing. There is no doubt about it. Now what FI will do? FI will keep selling. My sense is they'll keep selling till India stays here and the world stays here. Mhm. Okay, they are the only arbitraging machine between India and rest of the world because we are we are not allowed to go out.
In fact I I wrote to some one CIO somebody that please open the we should also be allowed to go out in a limited way through ETFs or something so that the the level here is little lower Yeah. so that FIs don't have any encouragement to go out and actually they have encouragement to come in. You know, so that you you open the two two two arbitraging machines one through the FI and second through the domestic you know in a limited way.
So that is work in progress. So but then what will happen is that India will remain expensive and India will keep getting DI very in a very what you call sequential way increasing number you know, as the GDP rises the contribution here will come. Third what has happened is the interest rates have come down.
If you look at your savings deposit you get about two and a half 3% something like that. Yeah. So obviously there is no encouragement. Your inflation is 3 4% 5%. There is no encouragement to the people at large to actually go and deposit in banks. And now digital system and the marketing of mutual funds sahi hai is so intense that I mean people are getting aligned to you know, kind of sending money for stock market.
So I think we are passing through multiple forces. Most of them positive as far as FI is going out. But have you seen have you observed active retail investor participation coming down? There was NSE data that shows active retail participation has come down in the last year. I can tell you we run one of the largest booking active booking that too much with a 98% pin codes all over the country.
My March revenue from booking only is 37% higher than last year's March. What are you saying? Investment [snorts] in securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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